It's Tuesday - General Market - What to Expect - February 11th.
My logo for over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."
Accurately Forecasting any Indice, (Dow - 30 / S&P 500 / Nasdaq, Etc.) Index or Security for me is a daily routine that I have maintained for well over 50 years.
I spend the majority of my research / analytics time Forecasting. The reasons are simple: a) it gives me a lead-time (often several weeks or more) to refine or fine-tune those Candidates for Buying (C4Bs) - or - Candidates for Shorting (C4Ss); b) it provides very clear prospective of where the General Market / Sectors / Industry Groups are going from this point foreword, in other words the "Big Picture;" c) it offers very accurate "Comparative Analytics" of What Companies or ETFs currently have the highest prospect to profit.
Yes, it is a process that I cannot do with out - - (perhaps that is true for YOU TOO!) - - and indeed is analytic tool that greatly enhances each transaction's performance by at least 10% and often more! I hope you will want to learn about my Methodology of "Investing Wisely."
The Most Critical Element of Your Consistently Being Profitable
Unfortunately Reality seems to have faded badly with many Investors over the past decade or so. The focus seems to stress the "Now" rather than the future profits that are so readily available, with just a little patience.
Since my retirement my annual profitability has increased markedly. The probability for Profit when I Formally Recommend a Company or ETF to my Clients is well above 90%. My individual transactions have all been over 20% more recently. This includes Income - Utilities, High Dividend Paying Companies and my Growth and Aggressive Growth Recommendations.
Please click on "Reality Graphic" for my brief article on Reality.
Here is Some of My Wisdom on "Reality" that I Have Profited From for 5 Decades
The Stock Market can only be profitable if we are well tuned to the Perceptions of Investors - My (POI) Indicator. Paradigms are what they are, and are only changeable when an opposite or perhaps negative event within the Stock Market is both abundantly and often hurtfully clear and strong enough - change that paradigm. Even then Investors tend to hold on to their "paradigms" until death. As an Investor, you might want to start pondering - - that all other Investors are going to believe what they believe - - - that is - until "Reality" finally sets in - - if ever.
I suggest that the problem that nearly all Investors have is two fold: a) that when a Bull Market is confirmed most Investors, start buying late and keep hoping all the way up and then all the way back down. Taking profits is not something they do well; b) that after a Bear Market is confirmed most Investors keep holding and hoping all the way down.
Hope is a lousy way to manage your nest-egg!
The Marketplace is currently in Bullish Market Cycle, as in all Bullish Market-Cycles, few investors will psychologically be able to unload their holdings (take profits) when a new Bear Market begins again. It is and always will be that way. In my articles, I am trying to help you fix that incorrect paradigm!
Facts - or - "Reality" - - For Me it is BOTH!
The FACT is that today's U. S. Stock Market is: a) Over-Valued (P/E divided by Inflation adjusted Earnings); b) Over-Bought (Above its Mean); Overly-Bullish (Sentiment), with Interest Rates on the Rise (Measured with reference to Calendar Quarters); c) Over-Exuberance (Judgmental at Best). This identical condition has been a common characteristic for most every significant market peak throughout the history of the Market itself.
Tuesday Forecast of the General U.S. Stock Market
The General Market is still considered my many to be UP and will stay UP indefinitely. They are Wrong! This is not within my Near-Term and Short-Term Forecasts - - (please see below). The Marketplace will likely continue to see-saw Up and Down for a while longer into 2014 while continuing to make a definitive TOP.
At this time I am primarily holding very few Securities - Long and am Holding-Cash (quite a lot !!!) in anticipation of a Bearish Inflection Point. At that time I will prudently be taking Bearish Positions i.e. Inverse ETFs for Retirement Accounts for my Clients who have such an Asset Allocation Model.
The securities I am Holding have not yet broken to the downside sufficiently to Sell - so I just Hold until they do. Oh Yes they will "break to the downside" (they always have and they always will) it is only a matter of time. I hope you have a way to note just how many Companies / ETFs have already - Peaked and are and have been Descending, there are hundreds!
I am definitely NOT Buying. I am focused on a Bullish Topping that will be followed with a new Bearish Inflection Point or if you prefer a new / meaningful Bearish (Primary) Cycle and perhaps another monster Bear Market. Please consider reading my article on: My Long-Term Performance Record back to 1957. Just Click.
Forecasting the Near and Short-Term of the General Market
This week (so far) the General Market is FLAT. That will change to the Up-Side very soon. That's why my preaching Patience and Discipline is Ok if you are looking for a Bearish Short to Longer-Term Inflection Point - and I am.
Please remember the Near-Term is only what supports the Short-Term and in turn the Short-Term supports the Intermediate-Term and on to the Longer-Term. This means that I / YOU must remain Patient and wait for my Composite Technical Indicators to do their thing. Believe me my Fundamental - Valuation Indicators have been in a Bearish place for a very long time.
I am also very prepared and confident with my pending Formal (Bearish) Recommendations to my Clients.
The coming days and perhaps a couple / few weeks will be a very fun time for me to once again fully test my 50+ year Methodology of "Investing Wisely."
For the Near-Term: ( one day to thirty days ) My analytics as of this writing suggest that another mini or bounce Rally has begun. There will be "News Driven" Pull-Backs and euphoric Rallies but those will, as always fade with the sun each day.
This Rally will then produce more down-side and that will become serious.
The coming days and perhaps a couple / few weeks will be critical if you intend to begin to follow and "Investing Wisely" with me.
For the Short-Term: ( one month to three months ) Topping is well over-due. For me, this will be an excellent time to re-confirm and do my Analytics Homework employing all my many levels of my methodology to find the necessary "Confirmation" that the Bulls are dying and / or perhaps already dead.
You May be Interested
I update and publish each Saturday morning a Chart in StockCharts - PublicList a proprietary General Market Update that provides me perspective between the three Indices that control the Marketplace. This is one of my secrets that can make you consistent profits if you will follow them both individually and collectively. They are: a) Primary Indices ( Dow 30 Industrials / NY & Nasdaq Composite, Etc. ) ; b) My proprietary Inflection Point Count which is very - broad based; c) The Commodity Index. Click here to view this excellent Indicator.
For over 50 years, this kind of Analytics has enabled me to have the luxury of a Leading Methodology for very early-on Identifying Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points or (the beginning / ending) of Bullish and Bearish Cycles -- and -- "Investing Wisely."
It was developed by algorithms that work / perform equally well for Sectors / Industry Groups / Commodities / Companies and ETFs.
Have a Look - Just Click-On: Unique Chart.
To "have a look" at all my Bellwether Sectors, Industry Groups, Companies and ETFs within this Chart Service - - Just Click-On:Comprehensive Look.
Thanks for your following - - please tell a friend or two about this Blog and my StockCharts - - PublicList.
I hope you Stay Tuned - my "stuff " it has been very accurate for over 50 years . . .
Note: For a daily update and deeper view of my work / analytics you might want to click,
and scroll down to my "Thumb-Nail" articles on my personal blog.
Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: firstname.lastname@example.org. - and - email@example.com.
Smile, Have Fun, Investing Wisely,