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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Amazon.com, Inc. – Performing As It Was Forecast And Should Be 0 comments
    Mar 3, 2014 12:28 PM | about stocks: AMZN, GRPN, EBAY, NFLX, OWW, IACI, PCLN, MELI, MCOX, PETS, OSTK

    Amazon.com, Inc. - Performing as it was Forecast and Should Be

    Amazon is, as expected and Forecast reaching new highs in each previous market rally. This is WHY Fundamentals supported by sound Technical Analysis - ALWAYS produces superior profits. Finding these gems is not all that hard.

    It's fundamentals tell me that it should continue to do well until there is a major break in the general market. Yes, it is over-priced but it has been for many months.

    My previously written articles on AMZN (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Amazon.com, Inc. is available by clicking: (NASDAQ:AMZN) An annualized profit 109% over the past few years Ain't Bad! I treat Amazon just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    My High Profile Cyclicals / Consumer Services / Internet Commerce Companies continue to be strong with few exceptions. Companies like (AMZN) have Earned their strong position in the marketplace.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    Growth and (sometimes) Aggressive Growth Investors - - As you know Amazon pays no Dividend !

    My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Amazon.com, Inc. and other Retail - Internet Sector Companies are tracking well. Although (AMZN) is in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. My Forecasts have been "on the button" even with the 20+% Pull-Back of late 2011. Re-Buying after that was easy.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth and (sometimes) Aggressive Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is even more bright as you may think - the only thing that can stop it is a General Market that turns Bearish!

    If you own or are considering owning Internet Commerce Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below). Amazon.com, Inc. is currently strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore I have placed it on an Initial (very light - but increasing) Bearish Forecast - "Warning." This is because I am a very cautious Asset Manager.

    That means: I am cautiously and continuing to HOLD - Nike, Inc. since having sent Formal Recommendations in May 2009 to my Clients -- the Public never sees my timely Email communications to my Clients until well after my - Emailing those Formal Recommendations - - - I do respond to prospective Client's - Questions and Thoughts. )

    My Current Opinion is Hold with (modest) Caution !

    Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains very strong but are producing some declining projections. Even with greatly superior earnings when a decline begins the price of the Company most often follows.

    Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators have not started to break down, but they will in time. A re-bound rally is in force - - the strength of which is very positive. I spend time looking back at the price movement and compare them with my Fundamental Valuation notes. (AMZN) is on or near its recent highs of $405. Current price is $375. The current pull-back is going to do two things: a) be stronger than investors would like and b) tell us if the Top has been made.

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (AMZN) !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), like most all other quality Companies, has taken some big hits over the years.

    URL for (20-years of) (AMZN): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48666896104&a=311129746

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Internet - Commerce Industry Group that I focus on: (AMZN), (NASDAQ:GRPN), (NASDAQ:EBAY), (NASDAQ:NFLX), (NYSE:OWW), (NASDAQ:IACI), (NASDAQ:PCLN), (NASDAQ:MELI), (NASDAQ:MCOX), (NASDAQ:PETS), (NASDAQ:OSTK).

    For a Daily Input and Deeper View of my Work / Analytics you might want to Click, and scroll down to my "Thumb-Nail" articles:

    Personal Blog. I post every day. Just Click - - > http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

    If I can be of help with guidance and direction for your portfolio(s) just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!

    senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    AMZN, GRPN, EBAY, NFLX, OWW, IACI, PCLN, MELI, MCOX, PETS, OSTK

    Stocks: AMZN, GRPN, EBAY, NFLX, OWW, IACI, PCLN, MELI, MCOX, PETS, OSTK
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