Southern Company - Not Doing It's Job and Won't for the Foreseeable Future
Southern Company clearly has not been one of the leading Utilities Companies for quite some time. It is on a Hold-Cash, and my Indicators are continuing to break down.
Southern Company has looked very anemic since April - some nine months ago, and that means continued caution.
My previously written articles on SO (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.
My Performance SO is not included in my 5-Year Table Performance for Income Allocation Model Portfolios and is available by clicking: Income Performance. I believe it accurately shares the rather positive results by first forecasting and then making wise investment decisions. I hope you will agree.
My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 4.81%
This week's commentary on Southern Company covers all of my indicators, both fundamentally for valuations and technically for momentum. It pays a good dividend and when it is in a up-trend it can be a very safe and productive company for Income Investors. There is always much to cover to provide my best possible forecast and opinion.
Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance
Southern Company and other Conventional Electricity Companies are tracking the Utilities sector well. There is always an end to a rally and many Utility Companies are not producing the price accent ion that is expected. There are very valid reasons why! usual.
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my Income Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).
If you own or are considering owning conventional electricity companies, the securities are becoming a mixed and rather negative bag. Southern Company is currently relatively weak technically and I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is to Hold-Cash. Profits were taken in July and cash is my current safe haven. For me, cash is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but are "Poor - Flat" and on the Decline. That produces future declining valuation projections.
Technically _ ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. The current mini pull-back since April at about $47 to a current price of $42.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for SO !
A Twenty Year Perspective of Southern Company
Southern Company has taken some big hits over the years!
URL for (20-years of -(SO): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SO&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25351548183&a=311910176
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Conventional Electricity Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (SO), (EXC), (D), (FE), (NRG), (AEP), (AES), (CNP), (PPL), (DUK), (CPN), (CMS), (XEL), (PCG), (CIG), (ETR), (TE), (PEG), (NVE), (NEE), (ED), (EIX), (NI), (POM), (AEE), (NU), (WEC), (DTE). And, more . . .
If you are seeking guidance or direction, please feel free to email me. My personal blog or site is: Investing Wisely.
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
Dr. Steve
SO, EXC, D, FE, NRG, AEP, AES, CNP, PPL, DUK, CPN, CMS, XEL, PCG, CIG, ETR, TE, PEG, NVE, NEE, ED, EIX, NI, POM, AEE, NU, WEC, DTE