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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • A Performance Forward Look At Three Of My Twelve U. S. Sectors & Probabilities Of Profit 0 comments
    Apr 16, 2014 9:39 AM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA

    A Performance Forward Look at Three of My Twelve U. S. Sectors & Probabilities of Profit

    The second three Sectors of twelve are: Energy - Oil & Gas / Gold & Silver / Financial

    My logo for over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."

    The graphic below is simple and what you must understand - - IF - - You want to consistently be a profitable Investor.

    My Sector Performance Table below lists my select U.S. General Market - - Sectors which is a rather broad breakdown and perspective of the General Stock Market and Indices.

    Up Close and Personal

    My professional asset management services are the above title. Up Close and Personal.

    There are very accurate and calculable ways to identify the Probabilities or "ODDS" of maintaining Consistently Profitable Portfolios in Bullish and Bearish Stock Market Environments. Using these tools of research wisely is the trick.

    Blanket holdings are just plain foolish. This table will hopefully turn the lights on for you. I Hope So. . .

    (click to enlarge)

    Table for Energy - Oil & Gas / Gold & Silver / Financials

    In the below Table, I share my current Forecasts and Opinions and 5-Year Performance - - Updated at least Semi-Monthly. My Sector focus is to constantly dissect each Sector to have a very accurate Forecast as to its direction - Bullish or Bearish.. There are other Sectors that I use for confirmation and "sub-groups" for each Sector and they are my select 350+ Industry Groups. It is a lot of work to keep-up, but I love and have loved it for over five decades.

    I write a weekly article for a new Industry Group in Doug Short's - Advisor Perspectives blog. It is one of the very finest and elite financial blogs in cyber-space. You will find quite a number of excellent financial authors. I recommend you tune into his Blog.

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/

    At this writing these three Sectors contribute to the suggestion that the very old Bull General Market is deteriorating. It is always a slow process of topping a multi-year bull market. It therefore requires much patience and discipline. Doing your homework each day over the year helps much more than you might think.

    Forecasting the General Market for me is fun. It can only be done by breaking down (dissecting), first the Sectors and then the component Industry Groups of each Sector. I use very basic fundamental - valuations that are always confirmed by my technical analysis. My Cycle Analysis and Forecasting Methodology has served both me and my Clients well for over 5- years. Simple stated - it works!

    Fundamental - Valuation is a very mechanical / mathematical process but over the more recent years it has become an art as well as a science.

    Cycle Analysis for me means identifying Bullish and Bearish Primary and Secondary Inflection Points for the General Market, Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities, Companies and ETFs. Yes, it can be done and this series articles will share how I go about the task. You might find my specific article and animated graphic on Cycles may be of interest. Click here.

    Forecasting is a tool that I use primarily because it offers me what I call "lead time." That means, I have time to "Cherry Pick" the Best of the Best for Bullish Cycles and the Worst of the Worst for Bearish Cycles.

    Table of Current Status and Performance for: Energy - Oil & Gas / Gold & Silver / Financial Sectors

    (click to enlarge)

    Long Term Charts for the three Sectors

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Every Sector on the planet has at one time or another taken some big hits over the years. Check these longer-term 20-Year charts out!

    Just Click:

    Energy Oil & Gas -- $DJUSEN

    Gold & Silver -- $DJUSPN

    Financial -- $DJUSFN

    Percent Chart for Perspective of the three Sectors

    (click to enlarge)

    Perspective, there are calculable reasons, ahead of making Investment Decisions, why some Sectors clearly out-perform other Sectors. This fact is also true with Industry Groups, Companies and ETFs. Note that the Financial Sector vs. the Gold Sector has a spread of over 100% in this two year period

    Again, this all can be determined "ahead of your making Investment Decisions." It simple requires more work, experience, a calculator and know-how.

    Combining my Fundamental - Valuations with my very unique Technical Analysis always provides a clear perspective of the Best of the Best (individual) Securities for Bullish Cycles and the Worst of the Worst (individual) Securities for Bearish Cycles. Anything in between the Best and the Worst - I call "Also Rans" and should never be considered to be part of your portfolio.

    Summary

    At this writing these three Sectors are suggesting that the very old Bull General Market is notable deteriorating. Topping a long-term Bull Market is always a slow process of that requires much patience and discipline. Doing your homework and gaining perspective each day helps more than you might think.

    Of the 12 Sectors, currently three are notable Losers, three more are on the Bearish Edge and six remain relatively Bullish Strong and a Hold. For reference, just six months ago there was only one Loser. My Forecasts suggest that within the next six months a notable number, (definitely not all), of my Sectors will become Losers.

    It is simple mathematics with a few caveats. When there are mostly Bullish Sector, Industry Groups and Companies you have a Bull market. It should be somewhat obvious that - when the, "vice-versa" occurs your have a Bear market.

    The trick is knowing the Bulls from the Bears! I do that task very well because I actually live with those critters. As this never ending Cycling Process occurs within the General Market Indices ( INDU, Nasdaq, S&P, etc) and the Sectors that make up the General - - both You and the Marketplace will be euphoric during Rallies - BUT - all Rallies followed by scary and expensive Pull-Backs. A little study on your part of the past few decades of the Marketplace will clearly confirm the above as FACT ! ( see my above three charts! )

    Be aware that a Bear Market is in the making. This Bearish fact has been on a crescendo for many months now!

    My work with these Sectors is fun for me. Sharing it with the Public is a pleasure and I indeed hope you will profit by my work.

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    SPY, QQQ, DIA

    Stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA
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