Microsoft Corp. - Prudence is Much Different from Greed - Caution is Warranted
Microsoft Corp. remains one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies. My Indicators are breaking down and I am preaching "prudence."
Microsoft is hanging in there very, very well. However, there is a possible Technical problem developing and Earnings are not all that impressive. So far - - just a word to the wise.
My previously written articles on MSFT (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.
My Performance for Microsoft can be found below and is nearly 20% per year for the last 5 years.
More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy
The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.
My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.77%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission.
Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance
Microsoft Corp. and other Software Companies are tracking the Market well. (NASDAQ:MSFT) remains in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. Unfortunately, I suggest it is beginning to tell a Bearish Story. . . My Forecasting of Microsoft over the years has been near perfect.
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth & Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning a Software / etc. Companies, the securities have definitely become much less bullish than just six months ago. Mostly strong but like always you need to find the best through being very selective. Microsoft is currently strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, therefore I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.
* Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting - 40%) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (MSFT) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated Earnings are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.
* Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is currently selling off its highs of $40. I am recommending much Caution.
* Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (MSFT) !
A Twenty Year Perspective of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) has taken some Big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of -(MSFT): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37471439789&a=310675869
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline & Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Software Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (MSFT), (NASDAQ:ORCL), (NASDAQ:SYMC), (NYSE:CRM), (NASDAQ:CDNS), (NASDAQ:NUAN), (NASDAQ:CA), (NASDAQ:CPWR), (NASDAQ:ADBE), (NYSE:VMW), (NASDAQ:ADSK), (NASDAQ:BMC), (NASDAQ:CTXS), (NYSE:PAY), (NASDAQ:CHKP), (NYSE:NQ), (NASDAQ:INTU), (NYSE:SAP), (NYSE:SWI), (NASDAQ:FIRE), (NYSE:RHT), (NASDAQ:INFA), (NASDAQ:NEON), (NASDAQ:JIVE), (NASDAQ:SREV), (PMTC), (NASDAQ:CNQR), (NASDAQ:CVLT). There are many, may more!
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Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
MSFT, ORCL, SYMC, CRM, CDNS, NUAN, CA, CPWR, ADBE, VMW, ADSK, BMC, CTXS, PAY, CHKP, NQ, INTU, SAP, SWI, FIRE, RHT, INFA, NEON, JIVE, SREV, PMTC, CNQR, CVLT