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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Silver Trust - - IShares - ETF (SLV) -- Semi-Monthly Update W/ 5-Year Performance – Patience Will Be Rewarded 1 comment
    Apr 20, 2014 10:28 AM | about stocks: SLV, PAAS, SLW, SSRI, SWC, AG

    Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF (NYSEARCA:SLV) -- Semi-Monthly Update w/ 5-Year Performance - Patience Will Be Rewarded

    In December, January and February - I Shared: "Silver could have a rally off of its current lows to the upside again, but caution is your first consideration. This all occurred as forecast.

    I also shared: "I won't get excited about buying Silver for awhile longer because trying to buy a Commodity like Silver just off its lows is usually a very expensive and not very bright investment strategy."

    At this writing Silver is being a difficult sister to Gold. Gold could rally soon. I said "could" with no current or sufficient support for Buying. That could change.

    My previously written articles on SLV (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for iShares Silver Trust is available by clicking: ( SLV - Performance ) I treat this ETF just like any other Company / ETF, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    My management objective is to identify the ever-changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    Income & Growth Investors

    My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF and other Mining Companies are tracking Silver well. Although Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF is in a strong Down-Trend / Bearish Cycle, it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. The July to date Rally my be terminating and yet there are Bullish signals being flashed. Be Patient and stay with me. I accept Email questions from serious Investors, not Traders.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth & Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright and shiny as you might wish!

    There are many, what I call "irresponsible" articles being written on precious metals that are grossly misleading. An example would be, I just read an article saying: "Silver will be going to $100 very soon." If you like that kind of advice, I doubt you will like what I share each and every day in SeekingAlpha.com and other Financial Blogs. (I will be more specific upon request).

    If you own or are considering owning Mining Companies - or - Silver / ETFs, the securities are currently not a pretty picture. Prudent investing just does not support ownership at this time. Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF is currently very weak Technically and I have reservations about my very weak Fundamental Valuations. I placed it on a Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning." That was way back in mid 2011. Not Bad - Forecasting (don't you think)?

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of a Bottom which at this stage cannot be Forecast. As far as it reaching "$100 soon" - - I strongly suggest that much will have to take place before that objective can even get started or be realized. I will keep you posted on my "Opinion" and I believe you will be well pleased.

    Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of most all of the Silver Mining Companies (SLV) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.

    You might also want or check out my Article on Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS). Just Click on the symbols.

    Technically ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine ETF, my Indicators have broken down and are possible on the mend. (SLV) is only currently slightly off of its declining highs of $24 selling for $20+. This is a time frame that you will want to - - stay tuned.

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (SLV) !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF (SLV)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Investing Wisely" and doing their homework well. Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF (SLV) and Silver Spot Price has taken some big hits over the years. The entire period of 1980 through 2001 Gold was in a declining posture. That means, you lost money if you held Gold for over 20 years. It is no different for Silver or any other security. That is why I have such a disciplined Investment Methodology.

    URL for (20-years of Silver - Spot Price and a bit less for - (SLV): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07896351310&a=310617222

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Patience and Discipline) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    (SLV), (NASDAQ:PAAS), (NYSE:SLW), (NASDAQ:SSRI), (NYSE:SWC), (NYSE:AG)

    For a Daily Input and Deeper View of my Work / Analytics you might want to Click, and scroll down to my "Thumb-Nail" articles:

    Personal Blog. I post every day. Just Click - - > http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

    If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!

    senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    SLV, PAAS, SLW, SSRI, SWC, AG,

    Stocks: SLV, PAAS, SLW, SSRI, SWC, AG
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  • TradesRuS1986
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    Completely agree, silver is a terrible buy and hold play , I'm still on the side lines, seems like this area of support is very important, if you did not notice , price has been supported on the old 2010 resistance, so this possibly has broken the bearish decline. One thing I find hard to believe is that most commodities have reached new all time highs, and 20 years later, silver hasn't come close when you take 20 years of inflation into account !
    20 Apr, 02:20 PM Reply Like
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