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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Nike, Inc. – Excellent Company To Hold For Awhile Longer – Be Careful 1 comment
    May 2, 2014 2:14 PM | about stocks: NKE, SHOO, DECK, ICON, WWW, CROX

    Nike, Inc. - Excellent Company To Hold For Awhile Longer - Be Careful

    Nike continues to be one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies. It is on a Strong Hold, but my Indicators are breaking down. That means Caution to preserve profits.

    I want to stress the importance of continuing to monitor your holdings. Nike is one of those wonderful companies that can lull you to sleep and wake up a few months later a lot lighter in you portfolio's value. This is why I continue to stress the importance of viewing a long-term chart to have prospective. It is not always a positive thing that many analysts and Wall Street wants you to think. Do you "think" or do you think your mutual fund thinks for you? They DON'T !

    My previously written articles on NKE (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simply want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    Look at the Profits for NKE - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Nike - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN nearly 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." Southern Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    Nike has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on NKE. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    My Performance for Nike can be found in my table below and is about 66% per annum for the last 5 years. (not including dividends).

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simply stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 1.32%

    This week's commentary on Nike covers all of my indicators, both fundamentally for valuations and technically for momentum. Despite its relatively low dividend it can be a very safe and productive company for Income Investors. There is always much to cover to provide my best possible forecast and opinion.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Nike, Inc. and other Footwear Companies are tracking the marketplace well. The rally since mid 2012 is getting quite long in the tooth.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialogue on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning Footwear companies, the securities are becoming a mixed bag. Nike is currently relatively strong technically, but I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to Hold in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices, but there will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be strong.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain strong. It is only slightly off its highs of $80, is selling for $73.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the following chart here which shows a twenty year perspective of Nike.

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Footwear Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (NYSE:NKE), (NASDAQ:SHOO), (NYSE:DECK), (NASDAQ:ICON), (NYSE:WWW), (NASDAQ:CROX). And, more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    NKE, SHOO, DECK, ICON, WWW, CROX

    Stocks: NKE, SHOO, DECK, ICON, WWW, CROX
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  • slam stocks
    , contributor
    Comments (1279) | Send Message
     
    Good points on Nike about lulling you into sleep.

     

    Owing this stock since 2007, I realized being up 300%, receiving 4% dividend on the original book value and now this stock represent my largest holding. Also, the are still priced cheaper than all their peers Adidas, Columbia, Lulu, Sketchers, Under Armour, except VFC (similar priced).

     

    Considered a premium brand, this is amazingly cheap compared to others, but with a PE - 25 not adding more shares. Will continue to hold and sleep on this stock for a little while longer.
    3 May, 09:32 AM Reply Like
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