Ford Motor Company - Back to Basics and Back to Holding Cash
Two Months Ago I Said: "Ford is among a number of Companies that are hanging in there with the Major Indices and greatly out-performing - them! My Fundamental - Valuations support this very well and is a vital component to enjoying consistent annual profits. However, this posting is beginning to tell me a more negative story. When a strong company has "flat" performance for several months, we ( me / you ) should definitely take note."
That was "On the Button" and so is this: A rally is in progress and - IF - it is not very positive - - Cash - - is your next place to be.
Currently it had taken the hit I Forecast but a rally is in place that will - Tell-All.
It is not "telling" much positive as of this writing.
My previously written articles on F (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.
My Performance please see my below table as well as (my 5-Year Table) for Ford is available by clicking: (NYSE:F). I treat Ford just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.
Look at the Profits for FORD - Over the Years
It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.
Ford - has: a) gone nowhere in 20 - - SO - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?
The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!
Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on F. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."
Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .
( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )
You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !
My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
Income & Growth Investors - Ford Motor Pays a: 3.13% Dividend
Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance
Ford Motor Company and other Auto Manufacturing Companies are tracking well. (F) is in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. My Forecasts have been deadly accurate for Ford for a very long time. We are in the second rally since 2009 and that too should tell you something important about my Forecasting.
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.
My Current Forecast is very bright and only a major Bear Cycle within the General Market can change my mind ! Unfortunately a major Bear Market is in the Making. The effect of that last sentence is something I will keep you well appraised of in my flow of daily articles and in my Private Blog.
If you own or are considering owning Automobile Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below). Ford Motor Company is currently strong Technically. I have no reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore, in summer 2012 - I placed it on an Strong Bullish Forecast - "Alert."
My Current Opinion is Hold !
* Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations for Ford remains strong but are producing cautionary declining projections.
* Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), My Indicators are notably breaking down. It is currently off its highs of $17+ selling at $16.. It is interesting to note that in early 2011 it was also at the $17. level and subsequently dropped to under $9. Ford is selling for $15.
* Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ), my third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (F) !
Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: firstname.lastname@example.org.
For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.
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A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
F, GM, TM, HMC, NSANY, TSLA