NEW ! - Probabilities for Profit - A Performance Forward Look at Three of My Twelve U. S. Sectors - Update May 14th.
The first of - - My (three) Sectors of Twelve are:
Basic Materials
Consumer - Staples & Services
Emerging Markets
Note: There are over 30 distinct Industry Groups within just these three Sectors to be Monitored and Forecast.
My logo for over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."
Note: Breaking It All Down or (Dissecting) the entire Stock Market is what I do very, very well. When you have this giant task handled you Make Money Consistently. When you don't have IT handled you Lose Money Consistently. It is hard long hours of work but very rewarding.
The below graphic is simple and what you must understand - - IF - - You want to consistently be a profitable Investor.
My below three Tables lists my select U.S. General Market - - Sectors which is a rather broad breakdown and perspective of the General Stock Market and Indices. Narrowing the "broad breakdown" is mandatory these days and each Sector has a number of Industry Groups that also must dissected weekly.
At this writing these three Sectors contribute to the suggestion that the very old Bull General Market is deteriorating. It is always a slow process of topping a multi-year bull market. It therefore requires much patience and discipline. Doing your homework each day over the years helps more than you might think.
Probabilities
Probabilities are just a way of using public information and data readily available on the Internet (mostly data) to compute the forward / Bullish and/or the sideways to down / Bearish direction of the stock market, sectors, industry groups, commodities, companies and ETFs. This I call "Dissecting" the Market and it presents very accurate and valuable Statistics and Odds of the probability of profiting in either Bullish or Bearish stock market environments. You have heard the term "don't buck the trend" many times - - - I suggest that you do not "buck the statistics and Odds" either.
With this "information and data" - - my Statistics and Odds can easily create a very accurate Forecast for the Marketplace, Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities, Companies and ETFs - - often week's ahead of Buying or Shorting Inflection Point for each of these categories.
There is no question in my mind and work that - - those of you who don't have or use these very special tools are leaving 10% to 15% and more on the table for most all Buy and Short transactions. (Please see my Performance for proof. I publish my Performance each Monday in my Personal Blog and in SeekingAlpha.com)
This Analytics Work is fun for me. It can only be done by breaking down (Dissecting), first the Sectors and then the component Industry Groups of each Sector. I use very basic fundamental -valuations that must always be confirmed by my unique technical analysis. My Cycle Analysis and Forecasting Methodology has served both me and my Clients well for over 50 - years. Simple stated - it works every time! Simple stated, it gives me time to "Cherry Pick" the Best of the Best for Bullish Cycles and the Worst of the Worst for Bearish Cycles. Simple stated, You will benefit by becoming a Client.
Fundamental - Valuation is a very mechanical / mathematical process but over the more recent years it has become an art as well as a science. Each Client recommended security goes through a through fundamental valuation and is compared with many peer companies to be sure that my "Cherries" are ripe and succulent.
Risk can be managed and actually quantified (calculated) quite easily when you have the tools and experience. I have those tools and many years of experience of using them wisely to profit. Computing the "threshold of risk" is also essential if you want a profit to loss ration of 90+% or better.
Technical Analysis for me is very different than what you are lead to believe is accurate measures of securities - it's NOT! Formulas and Systems DON"T WORK - either! For me it means Cycle Analytics and this is a very accurate approach identifying Bullish and Bearish Primary and Secondary Inflection Points for the General Market, Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities, Companies and ETFs. My doctorate thesis was on business and securities Cycles. That work has been very good to me for many decades.
Table of Past 5-Year Performance and Forecast for the Coming Year
Table of Current Status and Performance for: Basic Materials / Consumer / Emerging Markets
Long-Term Charts for these three Sectors
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Every Sector and Industry Group has taken some big hits over the years. Check these longer-term charts out!
Just Click to View my Long-Term Chart for each Sector:
The Odds
I present the "Odds" of your profiting in the stock market in a very unique way. As the Stock Market endlessly Cycles from Bullish to Bearish and then back to Bullish again - - ALL securities Cycle, within their own realm, Rotate (in an endless loop) from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" to "Also - Rans." It is this "endless loop" that is easily calculated and quantified. This can be calculated and quantified for ANY grouping or category of security and therefore present specific "Odds" for each component security (Company) as to the "Probability" of Profiting. Unfortunately, few Investors are willing to take the time to learn how to profit from these "Statistics" and "Odds" and therefore always leave a very large amount of profits on the table and not in their portfolio.
It certainly makes sense to me that we should invest our money where the Statistics and Odds are favorable and avoid investing our money where the Odds are un-favorable. Make Since to YOU ?
It's YOUR CHOICE - My Table of the Probabilities or Odds
The following Table should tell you a very compelling story, I hope so. Unfortunately, this table also takes time to understand. I hope YOU take that time and perhaps ask questions via Email.
Here are a few of My Suggestions for You to Ponder:
a) these three Sectors are deteriorating with only 20+% of the Companies currently being "Favorable" and having any prayer of producing reasonable profits in the foreseeable future; b) The above "LOSER" figures ("Un-Favorable and "Also-Rans") are clearly 80+% in control - percent wise and have much more Company downside Forecast - That's Un-Acceptable Odds - - (please re-visit my above supporting tables); c) numbers, raw data, statistics and odds don't lie, it is always the author that so often does so - hopefully unknowingly or naively; d) you will begin to benefit (Profit Consistently) if you will accept and perhaps question what I am sharing with me by Email. It is all simple math from my work over many, many years.
Forgive me for offering the following Overly Basic for further support of my Probabilities of the Statistics and the Odds:
First of all there are only 20+% "Favorable" Companies to work with. Those Odds are not beginning to support holding other than very select Companies and certainly does not support holding most Mutual Funds (please see my daily Company Articles for those Companies that I am Holding and those that I am Holding Cash);
Second, When Forecasting even within the "Favorable" seldom do I find more than 10% that have both the upside potential and a descent threshold of risk / reward ratio to recommend to my Clients. (you do the math - if there are 100 "Favorable Companies on my my list only 10 of them are acceptable for Recommendation to my Clients). There are ALWAYS very few (usually about 10%) Companies that offer a risk / reward ratio that supports current prudent investing. This mathematic holds true with all the above mentioned groupings)!
Third, It is mandatory in my asset management to keep a close watch on each of my large groupings of securities, for what I call "Loss Control" and this task clearly offers excellent insight into both what Companies are moving into Favor and those that are moving out of Favor - remember they are ALL Rotating. Stop Losses never have been a prudent way to invest, at least for me. Yes, this is a very dynamic marketplace. I hope you will want to know more. . .
Forth, Please understand I have much more data to work with than what I share or present in my articles and I definitely "Know when to Hold and Know when to Fold."
Appealing to Your Greed - with a Smile
It is my intent in all of my articles to let you know I am seeking new Clients for a bit more time. My Clientele is growing very nicely and I will never again be a large (un-manageable) asset management company again.
I believe what I have shared above is both a Unique and very Profitable part of my methodology of "Investing Wisely." If you will take the time to understand what I perfected many years ago, you will agree that my "Cherry Picking" makes sense and will add ten or more percent of profits and to your annual bottom line - often to each transaction.
I have read the books and thousands of Financial Blogs just like you. I answer, often in detail, Emails many times per week. After all of these years, I still have not come across any author or investor who understands that ALL of the Component Securities for these three and all my total of twelve Sectors most often pay a quarterly Dividend. Kind of Simple - Huh?
Please Read: Retired / Income Investors - - identifying Companies and ETFs that pay a Dividend is Child's-Play and an absolute no Brainier and yet the articles continue to flow with the focus solely on Dividends. Yes, Of Course and With-Out-A-Doubt (Dividends) are important but owning or holding a Company that is "Projected" or "Forecast" to descend in price is just beyond my ability to understand. I read such articles each day. May I just say, I can help. . .
My Logic Suggests: It is better to have private professional guidance and direction for your portfolios - and - pay one percent of the value of your portfolios and outperform the averages by 10% to 15% and more - - than to - - disregard the value of the above methodology of "Investing Wisely"- - or - - use more expensive / poor performing and impersonal mutual funds.
Summary
At this writing these three Sectors are suggesting that the very old Bull General Market is notable deteriorating. Topping a long-term Bull Market is always a slow process of that requires much patience and discipline. Doing your homework and gaining perspective each day helps more than you might think. This is especially true it you have a multi-decade seasoned asset management methodology at your finger-tips. I DO !
Of my 12 Sectors, currently two are currently Losers, three more are on the edge of becoming Losers and seven remain relatively Strong and hold a Bullish Forecast. For reference, just six months ago there was only one Loser. My Forecasts suggest that within the next six months, perhaps less, a notable number, definitely not all, of my Sectors will become Losers. It is simple mathematics with a few caveats, when there are mostly Bullish Sector, Industry Groups and Companies you have a Bull market. It should be somewhat obvious that when, "vice-versa" occurs your have a Bear market. The latter is in the making.
The trick is knowing the Bulls from the Bears! I do that task very well because I actually live with those critters. As this never ending process occurs, Indices ( INDU, Nasdaq, S&P, etc.) will be taking hits or pull-backs that will clearly confirm to you that a Bear Market is in the making. This has been occurring for many months now!
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Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com. For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog. Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated. A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience. |
Smile, Have Fun, Investing Wisely,
Dr. Steve
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