It's Thursday's - General Market - Mid-Week Assessment - May 15th.
My logo for Over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."
Talk to me Via Email - - My Analytics is getting Serious Again . . .
I believe there are always many, many (too many!) Road - Signs ( see graphic below ) that more often than not - offer you - Very Inaccurate Information about the direction of the Stock Market. They seem to come from all sources (i.e.) Government i.e. Federal Reserve Board, Wall Street, Financial Media, Blogs and Bloggers and unfortunately many other unreliable economic and financial sources.
Accurately Forecasting any major Indice, (Dow - 30 / S&P 500 / Nasdaq, Etc.) Index or any Security on the planet for me is a daily routine that I have maintained for well over 50 years.
My General Market Forecasts are published in SeekingAlpha.com on: Tuesday / Thursday / Saturday / Sunday.
Note: My General Market Updates and Forecasts are offered every Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday here in SA. I hope you will become a regular follower.
Perhaps you will permit me to assist you with guidance and direction in improving your portfolio's future "Probabilities for Profit."
( Yes, I am seeking new asset management Clients ).
I invite you to ask me questions about my Methodology ( just click) of "Investing Wisely" via my Email addresses below.
The General U.S. Stock Market - - Updated
Clearly (without all these - Deceptive Road Signs) the General Market remains Bullish and has repeatedly been making New Highs so far this year. There have also been a couple Pull-
Backs that are Ominous to say the least. That is what it will likely continue doing just for a just short while longer.
At this time I am holding a number of - Select Companies and ETFs that continue to ascend. I am increasing my Cash Holdings as it appears to be prudent to do so. My forward focus is on - - the on going and well over-due Bullish - Topping - that is going on and has been going on "INTERNALLY" in the Marketplace for several months.
A new Bearish Inflection Point or if you prefer a new / meaningful Bearish Cycle and perhaps another monster Bear Market is definitely in the making. I hope you will not be caught Holding your Companies and ETFs when you would have preferred (in hind-sight) to have been Holding Cash. I remind you that "Greed" is an expensive word.
I maintain very accurate Primary Fundamental - Valuation and supportive Technical - Analysis Indicators for the Short ( 30 days to 60 days ) and Intermediate - Term ( 60 days to 4 months ). My Secondary Indicators I use are telling a Bearish story that is never seen or talked about with or to the investing public. Secondary Indicators are always Near & Short - Term. They are the most accurate and valuable and must be a leading part of your analytics.
Having just these two time-frames handled and under control through my Forecasting the - - Long and Very Long - Term Cycles of the General Market - - simple fall into place. (This statement is also quite applicable to Sectors / Industry Groups / Commodities / Companies and ETFs). (Please re-read this paragraph for complete clarity).
General Market - - Forecasted w/ Current Opinions
For months, there has been very little convincing evidence (Economically or Fundamentally) that the current Primary (Bull Market) Rally and certainly future Secondary Rallies will be sustained. a) However, the Market continues to crank out New Highs; b) However, the U.S. Government and Wall Street keep "pumping sunshine" (cheap money and their other divisive ways of deceiving the people that voted for and pay their bills) and that will continue to lead you into severe disappointment, portfolio losses or worse in the coming years. These are the Facts and IF YOU WANT TO BE a Profitable Investor IT - Mandates that - - You Follow the FACTS !
I do have two "Howevers" - and - "Exceptions." - - Built into my Methodology of "Investing Wisely." The first are my hundreds of Forecasts; and the second is that they Work !
I frequently use these - three words - to describe my Analytics of the Current Market. You will find that they are both very descriptive and very accurate!
* The - Very Near-Term: The Market should be up but waning over the coming days.
* The - Bias: The Market - Bias is UP and "Bias" is much more sensitive than a Trend. ( If you are going to be consistently profitable, I suggest you become acquainted with my analytics that gives me the "Bias. )
* The - Trend: The Trend is clearly UP and will take much time to turn negative. That does not mean that you are safe nor do I recommend that you continue to hold long or to hold most mutual funds. Trends are often poorly measured by Financial Analysts are often misleading to the untrained Investor. So when a Up- Trend truly becomes an Up-Trend it is always going to be LATE but remains a valuable tool. This is always true for when a Down-Trend truly becomes a Down-Trend.My first two words above ( Bias and Trend ) help me ( big time) but it is the Bias that give me the edge to superior profits and does much better job than to follow a Trend. That better job is 10% to 15% per year and is usually more.
For the Near-Term: ( one day to thirty days ) My recent Forecast for a mini / bounce Rally is going to continue for a VERY short time and may have ended. This rally was manipulated by our new gal in the Fed. My new "Operative (NASDAQ:NEWS) Word" for the foreseeable future will be "JANET."
Note: So, when will I take Short or Bearish Positions. I will tell you When, I start to Very Selectively take some Bearish Positions but only my Clients will know the What, that is specific securities.
As usual the coming days and perhaps a couple / few weeks will be critical if you intend to begin "Investing Wisely" along with me.
For the Short-Term: ( one month to three months ) Topping is WAY over-due but, I suggest the coming few weeks of trading will be telling the Story Best - it will be a Compelling Story. Stay tuned.
The Dow Industrials and New York Composite Indexes are what I call "hanging tough" but the Nasdaq is showing great weakness. Will there be a rally that meets my criterion for Prudent Investing in the coming days? I will use the weekend once again to determine if the risk / reward warrants taking any long position. At this writing, I cannot begin to be thinking other than Near and Short-Term.
Remember, - EVERY - Bullish Cycle is followed by a Bearish Cycle, be it Near-Term - or - Short-Term - or - Long-Term - or - Very Long-Term. I hope you have such a perspective.
You May be Interested
I update and publish each Saturday morning a Chart in StockCharts - PublicList a proprietary General Market Update that provides me prospective between the three Indices that control the Marketplace. This is the seldom used formula that can make you consistent profits if you will follow them both individually and collectively. They are: a) Primary Indices ( Dow 30 Industrials / NY & Nasdaq Composite, Etc. ) ;b) My proprietary Inflection Point Count which is very - broad based ;c) The Commodity Index.
Understand that this graphic / chart presents both Primary Cycles and Secondary Cycles in the stock market. I seldom participate (Buy / Sell or Short / Cover ) in Secondary Cycles.
You can view this excellent Indicator at:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69359735342&a=270034212
Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: firstname.lastname@example.org.
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Smile, Have Fun, Investing Wisely,
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