Seeking Alpha

Steven Bauer's  Instablog

Steven Bauer
Send Message
My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Starbucks Corp. – Coffee Beans Smell Good And So Are The Profits – Caution Is NOW Warranted 0 comments
    May 15, 2014 11:31 AM | about stocks: SBUX, MCD, WEN, YUM, ARCO, EAT, DRI, KKD, RT, DPZ, PNRA, BLMN, TXRH, DENN, BWLD, THI

    Starbucks Corp. - Coffee Beans Smell Good and so are the Profits - Caution is NOW Warranted

    Starbucks is doing exactly what it should be doing - going UP. Since the beginning of the year it has had an ominous Pull-Back that WARRENTS CAUTION/

    Just so you know, when my Fundamental Valuations are super positive for a Company, the Technical or Charts ALWAYS support this kind of price movement - hence my Methodology of "Investing Wisely." It like all other Companies is vulnerable to Pull-Backs (check-out 2012 - - $61 to $42 that's about 33% and that is unacceptable asset management) and I am now / once again suggesting - Caution.

    This prolog is offered both as an encouragement at certain times as the "Cycles" ebb and flow and as a level of warning / caution. My job is to know the difference for my Clients.

    The current pull-back is ominous. $82. to $68. is a bunch.

    My previously written articles on SBUX (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Starbucks Corp. is available by clicking: (NASDAQ:SBUX). I treat Starbucks just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    Look at the Profits for SBUX - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Starbux - has: a) gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on SBUX. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 1.48%

    I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Starbucks Corp. and other Restaurant Companies are tracking the Marketplace well. Although (SBUX) is currently in a strong Rally it is also an excellent Company to Forecast for accuracy of future price movements and contributor to my overall Analytics.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is quite bright. That is if my Forecast for a General Market - Bearish Cycle / Bearish Inflection Point is delayed! (I will be more specific upon request).

    If you own or are considering owning Restaurant Companies, the securities have definitely been positive. Starbucks Corp. is currently strong Technically but I have mini - reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, however it on an Initial Bearish "Warning.""

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits - maybe at even higher prices? There will be an end but I am not Forecasting an "end" at this time.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting 40%) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (SBUX) are and remain positive. Plainly stated they are Flat but comparatively very positive.

    * Technically ( weighting - - 35% ): Within this outstanding Company, my Indicators are not breaking down like with so many other Companies. It recently took a Hit off of its highs of $83. to a very recent $69. now it is back to $70. and that is NOT positive. This means TOPPING - sooner or later.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (SBUX) !

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Restaurant Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (SBUX), (NYSE:MCD), (NASDAQ:WEN), (NYSE:YUM), (NYSE:ARCO), (NYSE:EAT), (NYSE:DRI), (NYSE:KKD), (NASDAQ:DNKN), (NASDAQ:CAKE), (NYSE:RT), (NYSE:DPZ), (NASDAQ:PNRA), (NASDAQ:BLMN), (NASDAQ:TXRH), (NASDAQ:DENN), (NASDAQ:BWLD), (NYSE:THI).

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    SBUX, MCD, WEN, YUM, ARCO, EAT, DRI, KKD, DNKN CAKE, RT, DPZ, PNRA, BLMN, TXRH, DENN, BWLD, THI

    Stocks: SBUX, MCD, WEN, YUM, ARCO, EAT, DRI, KKD, RT, DPZ, PNRA, BLMN, TXRH, DENN, BWLD, THI
Back To Steven Bauer's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.