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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Procter & Gamble Company – Still Cleaning-Up -- BUT 1 comment
    Jun 7, 2014 9:54 AM | about stocks: PG, CLX, CHD, ENR, SMG

    Procter & Gamble Company - Still Cleaning-Up -- BUT

    Procter & Gamble has definitely slowed down as being one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies. It is on a Strong Hold, but my Indicators are breaking down. I believe it will try to test its highs in the coming weeks. Just maybe it already has. I will give it a little more space but - selling is my focus.

    It hit $84. in November and could not move above in the last rally. This is serious in my analytics and I have noted that my Indicators are breaking down for months.

    My previously written articles on PG (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Procter & Gamble can be found in my table below and is about 16% per annum for the last 5 years. (not including dividends).

    Look at the Profits for PG - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Procter & Gamble - has: a) gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - ( study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." It - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on PG. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 3.21%

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Procter & Gamble Company and other Home Products Companies are tracking the marketplace well. The rally since mid 2012 is getting quite long in the tooth.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning home products companies, the securities are becoming a mixed, not so positive bag. Procter & Gamble is currently relatively strong technically, but I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    That means: I am continuing a HOLD - for Procter & Gamble. For Guidance and Direction of your portfolio(s) - - - I do respond to prospective Client's - Questions and Thoughts.

    My Current Opinion is to Hold in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices, but there will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be relatively strong.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain weakening. It is falling off its highs again of $85, is selling for $80.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for PG !

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    PG, CLX, CHD, ENR, SMG

    Stocks: PG, CLX, CHD, ENR, SMG
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  • jumpnjoey77
    , contributor
    Comments (468) | Send Message
     
    The strong USD is a large headwind. This is a good level to be adding if you believe the USD rally is starting to fizzle.
    7 Jun, 10:06 AM Reply Like
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