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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Exxon Mobil Corp. – Big Oil Is In Serious Trouble And Nobody Knows It 0 comments
    Jun 8, 2014 12:10 PM | about stocks: XOM, UCO, OLO, OIL, CVX, BP, RDS.A, STO, TOT, YPF, E, BAK, SSL, PTR, PZE

    Exxon Mobil Corp. - Big Oil is in Serious Trouble and Nobody Knows It

    Exxon Mobil Corp. ceases to be one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies. Going sideways with 10% dips is not my formula for profiting. It is now on a Hold-Cash.

    Yes, it is back to new highs but I am not impressed.

    My previously written articles on XOM (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Exxon Mobil can be found in the below table and is over 18% per year for the last 4 years.

    Look at the Profits for XOM - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Exxon Mobil - has: a) UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on XOM. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    I have completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Energy / Exxon Mobil Companies. I suggest that there is little support for notably higher prices in the making. This is a study that is a pleasure for me to do because I have spent time and experience in the study of Income and Growth Companies like XOM. Each time it offers support for my on going analytics, and I smile.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.72%

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income &Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you are perhaps being advised! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning Exxon Mobil or oil & gas companies, the securities are becoming a mixed, not a very positive bag. Exxon Mobil Corp.is currently just Ok technically, but I have reservations about my fundamental valuation. It is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning List."

    My Current Opinion is to Hold in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices, but there will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be relatively strong.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain questionable. It is making new highs but that won't last. Highs are $102, is selling for $101.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for XOM !

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Exxon Mobil Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (NYSE:XOM), (NYSEARCA:OLO), (NYSEARCA:OIL), (XOM), (NYSE:CVX), (NYSE:BP), (NYSE:RDS.A), (NYSE:STO), (NYSE:TOT), (NYSE:YPF), (NYSE:E), (NYSE:BAK), (NYSE:SSL), (NYSE:PTR), (NYSE:PZE). And, more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    XOM, UCO, OLO, OIL, CVX, BP, RDS.A, STO, TOT, YPF, E, BAK, SSL, PTR, PZE

    Stocks: XOM, UCO, OLO, OIL, CVX, BP, RDS.A, STO, TOT, YPF, E, BAK, SSL, PTR, PZE
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