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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Caterpillar, Inc. – It Ran Like A Gazelle And Now Is Crawling Back Again 0 comments
    Jun 9, 2014 1:23 PM | about stocks: CAT, MTW, DE, TEX, CMI, MTOR, WPRT, TRN

    Caterpillar, Inc. - It Ran Like a Gazelle and Now is Crawling Back Again

    Caterpillar, Inc. clearly has been one of the leading Ex-Dow 30 Companies. It has ascended very nicely over the past year. My Indicators (fundamentally and technically) are breakind down that that spells caution.

    How things change! And there are always "hind-sight" reasons why. My job is to provide "fore-sight" and I do! It is currently on a Hold-Cash, and my Indicators are continuing to break down. That decision was premature but we still registered a very fine profit.

    My previously written articles on CAT (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Caterpillar can be found in the table below and is well over 140% per year for the three year holding period.

    Look at the Profits for CAT - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Caterpillar - has: a) gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on CAT. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    Remember the primary trend is currently down! Remember the axiom - - "don't buck the trend?

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.22%

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Caterpillar, Inc. and other Heavy Machinery Companies are tracking the Utilities sector well. There is always an end to a rally and many Utility Companies are not producing the price accent ion that is expected. There are very valid reasons why!

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my Income & Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning conventional electricity companies, the securities are becoming a mixed and rather negative bag. Caterpillar, Inc. is currently relatively weak technically and I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to Hold-Cash. Profits were taken in July and cash is my current safe haven. For me, cash is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but are "Poor - Flat" and on the Decline. That produces future declining valuation projections.

    * Technically _ ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. The current price of $08.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for CAT !

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Conventional Electricity Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (NYSE:CAT), (NYSE:MTW), (NYSE:DE), (NYSE:TEX), (NYSE:CMI), (NYSE:MTOR), (NASDAQ:WPRT), (NYSE:TRN). And, more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    CAT, MTW, DE, TEX, CMI, MTOR, WPRT, TRN

    Stocks: CAT, MTW, DE, TEX, CMI, MTOR, WPRT, TRN
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