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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • JP Morgan Chase & Company – Banks The Good, Bad And Ugly 0 comments
    Jun 12, 2014 11:22 AM | about stocks: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, KEY, USB, FITB, BK, STI, BBT, PNC, STT, CMA, NTRS, MTB, BKU

    JP Morgan Chase & Company - Banks the Good, Bad and Ugly

    JP Morgan Chase Company continues to be one of the leading Banking Companies. It is on a Strong Hold, but my Indicators are breaking down.

    Note: Just so you know my "Indicators" always "break-down" or "turn-up" well in advance of the price of the Company or ETF - doing so.

    I believe JPM will continue to try to test its highs but will fail. It has been on a steady rise in price since the lows of $33.00 per share in June 2012. My weekly study / forecast of all my High Profile Financial / Major Banks is how I determine WHY.

    Two weeks ago I said: "A Pull-Back could well be in the making for (NYSE:JPM) as well as for the Banking Industry. Many Banks are already causing a great deal of hurt to portfolios."

    That has now happened and was about 10% to date! After a rally there will be more downside.

    My previously written articles on JPM (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My Performance for JP Morgan can be reviewed in the below table and is over 40% per year for the last 1.5 years.

    Look at the Profits for JPM - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    JP Morgan Chase - has: a) gone nowhere in 20 years gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on JPM. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.79% This is one of those Companies that is stingy with dividends.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance:

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    That means: I am cautiously and continuing to HOLD - JP Morgan Chase since having sent Formal Recommendations in May 2009 to my Clients -- the Public never sees my timely Email communications to my Clients until well after my - Emailing those Formal Recommendations - - - I do respond to prospective Client's - Questions and Thoughts. )

    My Current Opinion is to Hold in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices, but there will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be relatively strong.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain strong. It is off its highs of $60. selling for $57.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for JPM !

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Major Bank Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (JCM), (NYSE:BAC), (NYSE:WFC), (NYSE:C), (NYSE:KEY), (NYSE:USB), (NASDAQ:FITB), (NYSE:BK), (NYSE:STI), (NYSE:BBT), (NYSE:PNC), (NYSE:STT), (NYSE:CMA), (NASDAQ:NTRS), (NYSE:MTB), (NYSE:BKU). And, more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    JPM, BAC, WFC, C, KEY, USB, FITB, BK, STI, BBT, PNC, STT, CMA, NTRS, MTB, BKU

    Stocks: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, KEY, USB, FITB, BK, STI, BBT, PNC, STT, CMA, NTRS, MTB, BKU
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