International Business Machines Corp. - Not a Good Time to Hold Big Blue
IBM has not been one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies for about a year. It is on a Hold-Cash and my (fundamental - valuation and technical) Indicators are breaking down.
The rally from February will likely be an excellent time to sell. Repeat. . . Yes, my forecasts and advice is quite accurate.
The current Pull-Back should make shareholders Very NERVOUS.
My previously written articles on IBM (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.
My Performance for International Business Machines can be found below and is well over 31% per year for the 4.5 year holding period.
Look at the Profits for IBM - Over the Years
It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.
IBM - has: a) gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?
The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!
Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on IBM. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."
Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .
( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )
You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !
More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy
The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.
My management objective, each time around, is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.41%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission.
Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance
International Business Machines Corp. and other Computer Services Companies are NOT tracking well and are not a good place to be.
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.
My Current Forecast is not as bright and positive as in the past !
If you own or are considering owning Computer Services Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below). International Business Machines Corp. is currently strong / weakening Technically and I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is HOLD-CASH with Very Strong Caution !
* Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but my Valuations are "Flat" producing future declining projections of price.
* Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. The pull-back since March when it was selling for at about $213 is offering strong support for my Bearish "Warning." A General Market re-bound rally is in progress (with the exception for the negative "News" - - the strength of which will be very important as to when I will advise Clients to "Take Profits - and - move to Holding-Cash." It is selling for $182 - more than 5% off its highs.
* Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (NYSE:IBM) !
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Computer Services Industry Group that I focus on: (IBM), (NASDAQ:FTNT), (NYSE:NCR), (NYSE:DBD), (NASDAQ:FFIV), (NYSE:TDC), (NASDAQ:CERN), (NYSE:WIT), (NASDAQ:MCRS), (NASDAQ:MENT), (NASDAQ:WAVX).
Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: firstname.lastname@example.org.
For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.
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A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
IBM, FTNT, NCR, DBD, FFIV, TDC, CERN, WIT, MCRS, MENT, WAVX