Merck & Company - Not the Company It Was - But - Doing Well - However With Concern
Merck $ Company is tracking the Dow 30 Industrials very well and that is usually a very good Indicator to profit by. Unfortunately, my (fundamental and technical) Forecast - tells me a very different and much less optimistic story. Listening to my Forecasts is always the prudent thing to do. I am not Forecasting much of any up-side at this time.
It has had a very unusual run since the beginning of they year and unfortunately that slows my optimism for the future. It is now a simple chore to monitor MRK and take profits at a prudent point of time. That may be sooner than later!
Handling "unusual" situations is built into my Methodology and we continue to profit with MRK and other unusual company situations.
My previously written articles on MRK (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.
My Performance for Merck can be found below and is about 42% since March 2012.
Look at the Profits for MRK - Over the Years
It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.
Merck - has: a) gone mildly UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?
The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!
Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on MRK. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."
Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .
( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )
You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !
More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy
The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.
My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 3.01%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission.
Note: The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Merck. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
Forecast w/ Performance
Merck & Company and other Health Care Sector Companies are tracking well. The Company has supported my Forecasts for many years, so be prudent and careful at this time.
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of Risk.
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning Pharmaceutical Companies, the securities are currently and definitely strong but I have reservations. I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.
* Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (NYSE:MRK) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are looking anemic again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company for a long-term Hold.
* Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is currently near its highs of $58.
* Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (MRK) !
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Major Pharma. Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (MRK), (NYSE:PFE), (NYSE:TEVA), (NYSE:BMY), (NYSE:JNJ), (NYSE:LLY), (NYSE:ABT), (NASDAQ:GWPH), (NYSE:FRX), (NASDAQ:MYL), (NASDAQ:ORMP), (NYSE:GSK), (NYSE:ZTS). And, many more . . .
Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: firstname.lastname@example.org.
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A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
MRK, PFE, TEVA, BMY, JNJ, LLY, ABT, GWPH, FRX, MYL, ORMP, GSK, ZTS