Amazon.com, Inc. - Performing as it was Forecast and Should Be - Except - Now it is Time to Fine Tune and Likely Sell
Amazon (was), as expected and Forecast reaching new highs in each previous market rally. This is WHY Fundamentals supported by sound Technical Analysis - ALWAYS produces superior profits. Finding these gems in their early stage is not all that hard.
This is a standard and general remark that I often make to my Clients: "It's fundamentals tell me that it should continue to do well until there is a major break in the general market. Yes, it is over-priced but it has been for many months.
Repeating from previous posting: The current pull-back is telling a similar, yet different story. The next rally will be extremely important as to whether or not it is prudent to Hold Amazon.com. A one-hundred point drop in any stock is significant. Asset Managers MUST - preserve profits for their Clients and few do a decent job of that.
I Do !
As for the "current (May/June) rally," - - so far that should scare the bejeebers out of share-holders.
I do not like the price action over the past couple of months. I will soon be a seller.
My previously written articles on AMZN (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.
My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Amazon.com, Inc. is available by clicking: (NASDAQ:AMZN) An annualized profit 109% over the past few years Ain't Bad! I treat Amazon just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.
Look at the Profits for AMZN - Over the Years
It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.
Amazon - has: a) gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?
The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!
Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on AMZN. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."
Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .
( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )
You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !
My High Profile Cyclicals / Consumer Services / Internet Commerce Companies continue to be strong with few exceptions. Companies like (AMZN) have Earned their strong position in the marketplace.
My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
Growth and (sometimes) Aggressive Growth Investors - - As you know Amazon pays no Dividend !
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance
Amazon.com, Inc. and other Retail - Internet Sector Companies are tracking well. Although (AMZN) is in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. My Forecasts have been "on the button" even with the 20+% Pull-Back of late 2011. Re-Buying after that was easy.
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth and (sometimes) Aggressive Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.
My Current Forecast is even more bright as you may think - the only thing that can stop it is a General Market that turns Bearish!
If you own or are considering owning Internet Commerce Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below). Amazon.com, Inc. is currently strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore I have placed it on an Initial (very light - but increasing) Bearish Forecast - "Warning." This is because I am a very cautious Asset Manager.
That means: I am cautiously and continuing to HOLD - Nike, Inc. since having sent Formal Recommendations in May 2009 to my Clients -- the Public never sees my timely Email communications to my Clients until well after my - Emailing those Formal Recommendations - - - I do respond to prospective Client's - Questions and Thoughts. )
My Current Opinion is Hold with (modest) Caution !
* Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains very strong but are producing some declining projections. Even with greatly superior earnings when a decline begins the price of the Company most often follows.
* Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators have not started to break down, but they will in time. A re-bound rally is in force - - the strength of which is very positive. I spend time looking back at the price movement and compare them with my Fundamental Valuation notes. (AMZN) is on or near its recent highs of $405. Current price is $324. The current pull-back is going to do two things: a) be stronger than investors would like and b) tell us if the Top has been made.
* Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (AMZN) !
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Internet - Commerce Industry Group that I focus on: (AMZN), (NASDAQ:GRPN), (NASDAQ:EBAY), (NASDAQ:NFLX), (NYSE:OWW), (IACI), (NASDAQ:PCLN), (NASDAQ:MELI), (NASDAQ:MCOX), (NASDAQ:PETS), (NASDAQ:OSTK).
Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: email@example.com.
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A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.
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Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
AMZN, GRPN, EBAY, NFLX, OWW, IACI, PCLN, MELI, MCOX, PETS, OSTK