Google, Inc. - If Your Growth Performance is not in this League It Should Be - BUT - Be Careful
Google, Inc. continued to make new highs that seemingly would last forever. The forever part is where most Investors make their mistakes. It has pulled back about one hundred (plus) points. That is nothing to set off major alarms but I suggest holding a tight reign. Profit taking is not Forecast for the foreseeable future. However, Caution is warranted.
I add emphasis to the above.
My previously written articles on GOOG (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.
My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Google, Inc. is available by clicking: (NASDAQ:GOOG) . The below 54% per year profit I have averaged for several years - Ain't Bad! I treat Google just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.
Look at the Profits for GOOG - Over the Years
It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.
Google - has: a) gone nowhere in 20 years gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?
The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!
Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on GOOG. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."
Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .
( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )
You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !
My weekly study of all my High Profile Technology / Internet Companies says Caution is now worth all my effort.
My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
This week's Commentary on - Google, Inc. (GOOG) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum.
Growth Investors - As you know Google does not pay a Dividend
Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance
Google, Inc. and other Internet Sector Companies are tracking well. Although Google, Inc. is in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. My Forecast have been solid for almost 5 years now and that is a good feeling………
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think ! It is not all the bad either !
If you own or are considering owning Internet Companies, the securities are a mixed bag. Google, Inc. is currently strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore I have placed it on an Initial (very weak) Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is Hold with Caution !
* Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remain strong and positive with solid future upside projections. The problem is my Valuations are on the decline, first back up a bit and then back down or sideways. This translates into just one word I used above - "Caution."
* Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. A re-bound rally is in process - - the strength of which is excellent. Google did not move very well for almost three years (2010 thru mid 2012). Looking back helps in looking forward. Google is no longer selling near its highs of $608. it is selling for $577.
* Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (GOOG) !
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Internet Industry Group that I focus on: (GOOG), (NASDAQ:FB), (NASDAQ:BIDU), (NASDAQ:YHOO), (NYSE:LNKD), (NASDAQ:YNDX), (NASDAQ:TRIP), (NASDAQ:AKAM), (NASDAQ:GRPN), (IACI), (NYSE:YOKU), (NYSE:AOL), (NASDAQ:AWAY), (NYSE:YELP), (NASDAQ:SOHU).
Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: email@example.com.
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A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
GOOG, FB, BIDU, YHOO, LNKD, YNDX, TRIP, AKAM, GRPN, IACI, YOKU, AOL, AWAY, YELP, SOHU