Crude Oil - Sticky Stuff with No Solvent in Sight - Well Maybe
Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF continues to be Bullish and will remain so for a short time. It is on a Hold, and my fundamental and technical indicators are still breaking down.
There is, in my Intermediate-Term Forecast (one to six months) a possible Short in the making. This is "WHY" I Forecast so very, very much and so very, very carefully.
My previously written articles on UCO (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance.
My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Crude Oil is available by clicking: Crude Oil Performance.
Crude Oil - has: a) gone nowhere but Down in the past several years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?
This ETF like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!
Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on UCO. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."
My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you are perhaps being advised by others!
If you own or are considering owning crude oil ETFs or Companies, the securities are much closer to a top than they are near a meaningful bottom.
My Current Opinion is to Hold in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices after yet another Pull-Back. There will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.
* Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be relatively strong.
* Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain weak. It is selling for $3.
* Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for UCO !
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Crude Oil Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (NYSEARCA:UCO), (NYSEARCA:OLO), (NYSEARCA:OIL), (NYSE:XOM), (NYSE:CVX), (NYSE:BP), (NYSE:RDS.A), (NYSE:STO), (NYSE:TOT), (NYSE:YPF), (NYSE:E), (NYSE:BAK), (NYSE:SSL), (NYSE:PTR), (NYSE:PZE). And, more . . .
Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: email@example.com.
For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.
Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.
A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
UCO, OLO, OIL, XOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, STO, TOT, YPF, E, BAK, SSL, PTR, PZE