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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Apple, Inc. – The Shinny Apple Of Old Now Has Too Many Brown Spots 1 comment
    Jul 7, 2014 9:48 AM | about stocks: AAPL, DVMT, NTAP, DELL, HPQ, DDD, FIO, WDC, SGI, SSYS, STX, SMT, AUO, NCR

    Apple, Inc. - The Shinny Apple Of Old Now Has Too Many Brown Spots

    Apple, Inc. clearly has not been one of the leading Companies in past months and has not been on my Favorable List for a long time. Yes, it has recovered to its October 2012 highs but that is NOT Performance.

    I turned Bearish and went to cash in November 2012 over a year ago. It is currently on a Hold-Cash, and my Indicators are continuing to break down.

    This year has been a nice rally, but I would never participate or consider owning with the amount of Un-Favorable data and information in my notes for Apple.

    This past rally was and I repeat "was" induced and is likely over with another Pull-Back in the making.

    The stock split is interpreted by me as managements acquiescence that it is no longer a 'power-stock" and will look more like a dividend paying Company in the future.

    I am definitely not a Buyer and it is not on my Favorable List.

    Apple, like Microsoft and many other Companies has provided profits that we can often only dream about. Then there is a change. Currently Apple is down over 150 points from its high. Investors that live on HOPE are often disappointed. I am trying to help.

    When I edit the above it is difficult for me when I know the 99% of the world believes Apple, Inc. is divine. Forgive me but it is NOT!

    My previously written articles on AAPL (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Apple, Inc. is available by clicking: (NASDAQ:AAPL). I treat Apple just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    (click to enlarge)

    Look at the Profits for AAPL - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Apple - has: a) gone to the moon in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on AAPL. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.07%

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Apple, Inc. and other Computer Hardware Companies are tracking the Utilities sector well. There is always an end to a rally and many Technology Companies are not producing the price accent ion that is expected. There are very valid reasons why!

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my Income & Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may be lead to believe! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning conventional electricity companies, the securities are becoming a mixed and rather negative bag. Apple, Inc. is currently relatively weak technically and I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to Hold-Cash. Profits were taken in July and cash is my current safe haven. For me, cash is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but are "Flat" and un-impressive. That produces future declining valuation projections.

    * Technically _ ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. It is again in a current rally since February to a current price of $94.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for APPL !

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Conventional Electricity Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (OTC:APPL), (EMC), (NASDAQ:NTAP), (NASDAQ:DELL), (NYSE:HPQ), (NYSE:DDD), (NYSE:FIO), (NYSE:WDC), (NASDAQ:SGI), (NASDAQ:SSYS), (NASDAQ:STX), (NASDAQ:SMT), (NYSE:AUO), (NYSE:NCR). And, more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts:

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve


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  • babcock1
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
    GLAD TO SEE YOU ARE OUT OF THE GAME, WITH ADVICE LIKE YOURS WHO NEEDS AN EXPERT. Most of us who stuck with Apple have made a bundle. I will continue to read the pundints like you, and just be amazed when they can't admit they made a mistake. Sure you didn't work for Fidelity in Utah? They were the people I gave several hundred thousand dollars to manage, within 6 months they lost 40%. I took it back, and 6 months later I had turned a 60% profit. It's called imperical evidense, follow the inavators, not your out of date charts. Good Luck in Mexico.
    8 Jul 2014, 09:56 AM Reply Like
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