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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • NEW SERIES ! – Counts – Identifying Bullish And Bearish Inflection Points - - Semi-Monthly - Update July 13th. 0 comments
    Jul 13, 2014 8:51 AM | about stocks: APX, BA, CAT, CSCO, CVX, DD, DIS, GE, GS, IBM, INTC, HD, JNJ, JPM, KO, MCD, MMM, MRK, MSFT, NKE, PFE, PG, T, TRV, UNH, UTX, V, VZ, WMT, XOM

    NEW SERIES ! - Counts - Identifying Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points - - Semi-Monthly - Update July 13th.

    My 50+ Year Logo is: "Investing Wisely."

    As you know by now if you are following my work / analytics my focus is on Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points. There are several categories: Primary / Secondary / Third and Fourth Tier Inflection Points. Each has its own following or Grouping of Securities that are a) "Favorable" and are Bullish and Out-Perform; b) "Un-Favorable" and are Bearish and Under-Perform; and c) "Also-Rans" that also Under-Perform.

    If you keep even modest data or just follow the portfolio of a Large Mutual Fund you will know that the above is both a fact and very frustrating. Have you ever asked yourself: is it possible to - Identify the Profitable and avoid the Un-Profitable? The emphatic answer is a resounding - YES !

    Here is a basic article you may want to study on my Inflection Points. The URL is:

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/22158/inflection-points-a-short-explanation

    Another article that attempts to share the importance of Inflection Points is my SHB Cycle with an animated graphic that illustrates how each Cycling Dot is a Company or ETF that continuously cycles from Bullish Inflection Point to Bearish Inflection Point and then back to Bullish - - over and over again. That's how it works and I hope you will study it carefully. The URL is: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27442/my-shb-cycle-a-brief-explanation-of-this-pillar-of-my-methodology

    Not mentioned in the above (older) articles is my recent work on "Counts."

    Counts are More Accurate and Lead

    My doctoral studies and many documented reports have never endorsed any System for monitoring the Inflection Points of the General Market, Sectors, ETFs, Commodities or any Security. This has been frustrating to me for decades and about two years ago I began work on my Counts. Plainly stated - - "They WORK."

    I also hope you can see from the recent Quantitative Matrix of numbers in the below Table that my Methodology of employing "Counts" provides substantial lead time in Identifying both Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points. This lead time permits focusing on the Companies and ETFs with the highest probability to profit with the lowest threshold of risk. It is long hours of work and analytics that requires much patience and discipline.

    Yes, Toping or Bottoming is a simple part of my Inflection Point Analytics. It is accurate and very profitable way to manage assets. And Yes, Doing your Homework each day/week helps more than you might think.

    Table - There is a Pattern with the Numbers - - Never with the Charts or Systems

    ( Pure Data or Numbers Never Lie When Used Prudently )

    (click to enlarge)

    It is all about Patience and Discipline. Waiting is no longer something people can do without turning to alternatives that are most often - very costly. The above mentioned Bullish and Bearish Cycles occur several times per year and in between you must - WAIT !

    First there is a building or crescendo of increasing numbers (Percent Numbers) from very low ( 0% ) to very high ( 100% ). This is clear in the two columns for Bullish Count and Bearish Count. Second you must wait for the first Bullish Alert or "Bearish Warning." When this occurs, you have much lead time before the Major Market Indices give you a Turn-Up Date or a "Turn-Down Date." During this lead time it is easy to sort the Favorable from the Un-Favorable Securities in my inclusive Universe of Companies and ETFs. You can even identify the Also Rans, but that is a waste of time.

    Yes, I remind you from other articles that, my matrix of the 37 Groupings that I monitor weekly confirms the above Table and percent numbers. And Yes - it is different for Asset Classes. Gold/Silver; Crude Oil/Energy; Real Estate; Treasuries; Etc. present different data but my "Counts" work there just as well. You might check my performance published each Monday for my four Asset Allocation Models. They are: Income, Income & Growth, Growth, Aggressive Growth.

    My Counts is definitely a very unique Bellwether for the Market, Sectors, Asset Classes. It internally identifies the "Favorable" / "Un-Favorable" / and "Also Rans" almost by default. This of course is applicable if you are interested in low risk and superior percentage performance.

    Retirees - - I can always match the dividend and get the bonus of having much more positive growth or up-side potential in the "Favorable" Companies that are always on my Buy List.

    It is basic mathematics with no gimmicks, formulas, charts or interpretations to learn in order to maximize profits. It is a matter of having the patience and discipline to monitor the Quality Companies in my Universe as they endlessly Cycle from Bullish to Bearish and back again to Bullish ad-nauseas over time.

    I simple keep the "Counts" in perspective and believe it provides both you and me consistently profitable direction and guidance for profiting in the stock market. It is the same procedure on a much larger scale with my 37 Groupings.

    I write a semi-monthly article updating each of the Dow Companies. Here is a way to visit my long archive list for each of these Company articles: (Click on the symbol and you will be taken to my historical list of articles for that Company - - That should be conclusive proof of my Asset Management skills and profitability).

    APX, BA, CAT, CSCO, CVX, DD, DIS, GE, GS, IBM, INTC, HD, JNJ, JPM, KO, MCD, MMM, MRK, MSFT, NKE, PFE, PG, T, TRV, UNH, UTX, V, VZ, WMT, XOM .

    The General U.S. Stock Market - Forecasted

    The General Market is UP for the year to date is definitely un-impressive. That's Ok if you are looking for a Bearish Inflection Point - and I am. It only means that I / YOU must remain patient and wait for my composite technical indicators to do their thing. My fundamental and economic indicators have been in place for months. Technically, I am very prepared and confident with my pending Bearish Formal Recommendations to my Clients.

    There will be more mini or bounce rallies and how those plays out is what keeps me smiling with my work / analytics. After which I expect to see further confirmation of my Bearish Short-Term Forecast - - unfortunately not with the Public - just with my Clientele.

    At this time, I am primarily Holding Cash. Oh yes, I am holding those Companies and ETFs that remain 'Favorable' which can be seen in the above table and in my articles. My overall research is focused on a Topping and very likely a new Bearish Inflection Point, or if you prefer a new / meaningful Bearish Cycle.

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Note to Professionals: I consult and this "stuff" is powerful. You might want to get in touch.

    Smile, Have Fun, Investing Wisely,

    Dr. Steve

    Stocks: APX, BA, CAT, CSCO, CVX, DD, DIS, GE, GS, IBM, INTC, HD, JNJ, JPM, KO, MCD, MMM, MRK, MSFT, NKE, PFE, PG, T, TRV, UNH, UTX, V, VZ, WMT, XOM
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