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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Wednesday: Investing Wisely -- Market Update & Commentary - - July 11, 2012 0 comments
    Jul 11, 2012 9:35 AM | about stocks: AA, AAPL, AMZN, BAC, BIDU, C, CMCSA, CSCO, FCX, GE, GOOG, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MCD, MO, MSFT, PFE, BBRY, T, SBUX, SIRI, VZ, WFC, WMT, XOM
    Wednesday: Investing Wisely -- Market Update & Commentary - - July 11, 2012

    To support my archive of articles that are published by SeekingAlpha.com, I write two weekly Instablog postings that you may wish to follow.

    This Wednesday edition is simple, it provides more in-depth information and data than can be put in each article. It is titled: Wednesday: Investing Wisely -- Market Update and Commentary. Just Scroll Down for my Market Update and Commentary.

    On Friday night or Saturday morning, I publish my Saturday format entitled: Saturday Update: Investing Wisely - Forecasts / Confirmations = Results ! You will have no trouble finding it when you enter my Instablog postings.

    Please Scroll Down for My Current Opinion - and - further down for My Short-Term Horizon

    - - -

    General Statement about My Professional Services:

    If you or a client takes a position (long or short) that I recommend (via a specific Email) , you should know that I am there to fully support your questions and investment commitment. From Yours Prospective - That Means:

    I'm in, when do I get out? Do I hold? Do I sell? When do I move back to cash? Do I make a partial sell and hold the balance? I'm concerned, what do I do? What other investment strategies can I employ? Etc.

    These questions are comprehensive of Investing Wisely and I fully support you 24/7.

    I look forward to our doing business.

    Please see below for a hyperlink to my professional services and fees.

    - - -

    Note: This General Market Update & Commentary is a bit limited. It is completely focused on the Standard & Poors 500 Index. My reason is simple; this Index is the most followed by all investors and professional advisors. The many other Indice Indexes are also important in my analytics. You can be assured that if I make securities recommendations to my Clients, those Indexes are carefully researched.

    My Current General Market Opinion

    In my articles I clearly have been bearish since early April. Calling this Bearish Cycle Inflection Point on the button was important.

    So, Bears are now in control of the marketplace for the foreseeable future.

    Of the many proprietary indicators that have been so accurate, not one is showing any indication that a bullish cycle is coming. That means the marketplace will continue to erode moving from one sector / industry group venue to another. This rotation will, or should continue until all have been sufficiently hurt.

    On the economic front, there is mounting evidence that the U.S. will join Great Britain in being in a full recession. I suggest that the U.S. is at this time in a recession. Washington, as usual will be slow to acknowledge that face.

    As for the general market, my fundamentals are over-valued. My technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. The economy is in much more peril than is being reported by the media. All the stimulus that Washington can muster will likely be politically driven in the coming months. With the elections coming, I suggest that the marketplace will be suffering and in need of a false promise by the President.

    Therefore, I am bearish on the general market and the economy for the foreseeable future.

    Understand from the above General Market opinion that my Guidance for most all securities is also bearish. In my articles I include the following statement: "My analytic focus is investing wisely, e.g. taking advantage of the bull / bear cycles as they occur within the overall marketplace. Integrating conservative fundamental analytics within these technical cycles means maintaining a process of the thorough and on-going analytics of many companies, sectors and industry groups."

    The Bigger Picture with Supporting Charts with Comments

    Most Current Real S&P 500 Returns

    (click to enlarge)

    The above chart provides an excellent long-term perspective of the S&P 500. I earned my first research dollar in 1957. I did very well through the late 1960s, just like the herd; it was a long-term bull market, and I didn't know it. I was just completing my doctorate and feeling very smart. I then did very poorly in the 1970s, staying even, just like the herd; it was a long-term bear market, and I didn't know it. Guess what, with all that education, reading over 400 books in the market that 13.5 year bear market still did a job on me. During that time, I wrote my Methodology and have had excellent performance since. I simple stopped listening to the herd of people and their advice and focused on doing it my way.

    I lived those days with manual charting and a very slow feed of data. I believe those days taught me more than the last ten years of being immersed in the "information age."

    The marketplace will soon break down again with another declining top bearish cycle. That should be clear to everyone.

    Corporate Profits Chart

    (click to enlarge)

    The above chart is correct, with the red line addition. I never put objective prices or time frames in on my forecasts, do not believe exactly what you see. PC apparently agrees with my analytics, that Corporate Profits and hence earnings will be on the decline for some time to come.

    I would like to thank PC - Pragmatic Capitalism for their fine work and supporting charts and data.

    The General Market On the Shorter-Term Horizon

    Since late May, the S&P 500 has retraced over two months of the April / May pull back. I called this pull back on the button. I had expected a greater initial drop before the turn-up four weeks ago.

    This coming few days and into next week should produce very little more upside and a possible termination of this mini-rally.

    The internals (Breadth) of the marketplace is and has been in severe peril since early February. Clearly a resumption of the downside is forth coming. I have been bearish based on the (Breadth) since early this year. Perhaps you have breadth Indicators to confirm this fact. If you don't and you own small or mid cap companies you have felt the pain and therefore should know what is going on.

    My S&P 500 Company Valuations are clearly in the minus 20+ percent ( - 20+% ) range for the foreseeable future. I believe putting target figures and dates in play for you to consider -- is just plain "foolish." Many do, many try and many are nearly always wrong! Don't be lead by this data, just listen to the marketplace and you will always profit.

    - - -

    You may want to read my bi-weekly blog - Update and Commentary in my Wednesday and Sunday blog. It is followed by Investors in over 54 countries around the world. Try it:

    My Blog: http://twitter.com/InvestRotation

    Communications

    I do not communicate with readers or followers using SA's Comments or Message Center. Obviously then, I do not read or respond to any "Comments" made by the readers of my articles. In the past, doing so has presented problems that I now simple feel I must avoid.

    I would be pleased if you would like to have an Email dialog with me, I will provide a prompt reply / response via Email.

    My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."

    I would of course appreciate your - Telling a Friend or Two about my Work / Analytics.

    Symbols covered in my SA articles:

    AA, AAPL, AMZN, BAC, BIDU, C, CMCSA, CSCO, FCX, GE, GOOG, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MCD, MO, MSFT, PFE, RIMM, T, SBUX, SIRI, VZ, WFC, WMT, XOM,

    - - -

    If you would like further information about me, my objectives for writing SA articles, and my professional services and fees.

    ( click here for my bio )

    ( click here for my objectives and professional services and fees )

    If you would like to ask questions or share thoughts - Just Send Me An Email. No Cost, No Obligation / No Fool-in !

    Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

    Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

    Themes: Investing for Income Stocks: AA, AAPL, AMZN, BAC, BIDU, C, CMCSA, CSCO, FCX, GE, GOOG, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MCD, MO, MSFT, PFE, BBRY, T, SBUX, SIRI, VZ, WFC, WMT, XOM
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