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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Saturday Article Update: Investing Wisely - - Forecasts / Confirmations = Profitable Results ! - - August 11, 2012 0 comments
    Aug 12, 2012 9:43 AM | about stocks: AA, AAPL, AMZN, AXP, BA, BAC, BIDU, C, CMCSA, CSCO, CVX, FCX, GE, GOOG, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MDLZ, KO, MCD, MO, MSFT, PFE, BBRY, T, VZ, WFC, WMT, XOM
    Saturday Article Update: Investing Wisely - - Forecasts / Confirmations = Profitable Results ! - - August 11, 2012

    Recently, I write only two or three weekly Instablog postings that you may wish to follow. I have moved this posting, my Saturday, posting to an every other week basis. If you want to know why, please read my "notice of termination" in my personal blog and you will understand.

    I also try to post on Tuesdays with an article from SafeHaven.com.

    You may also want to follow my newest articles in SafeHaven.com. You can see my archive of all articles that I have written for SafeHaven.com by clicking here or using the following URL.

    http://www.safehaven.com/author/489/steve-bauer

    I do an article on Retirement Income and Dividends for Seniors and Gold. More will follow now that I am not writing articles for SeekingAlpha.com.

    My posting in SafeHaven.com are for a Sunday publishing, and again - perhaps early in the week. I hope you like my sharing of my continuing work / analytics - guidance -- opinions.

    - - -

    - - PLEASE SCROLL DOWN TO THIS WEEK'S UPDATE TABLE - -

    Instablog Postings

    #1. My (this) Saturday edition is simple, it provides updated: Alerts, Warnings and Rankings and long-term charts. It covers many of the companies that are included in my archive of over 100 SeekingAlpha.com articles. It is entitled: Saturday Article Update: Investing Wisely - - Forecasts / Confirmations = Results !

    #2. On Thursday morning I publish my "Thursday" format entitled: Thursday - Investing Wisely - - Market Update and Commentary.

    #3. On Tuesday I try to feature an article that I believe can offer guidance for you to make some money.

    - - -

    Investing Wisely

    It is Really Quite Simple - To Profit Consistently

    My Analytics begins with Accurate Forecasting Procedures then Requires Well Honed Fundamental and Technical Confirmations and ends with Very Positive / Profitable - Profitable Results. ( F / C = PR )

    Notes for the below Table

    Saturday Instablog postings are my way to share my market opinions and Hyperlink the articles and charts that I write for SafeHaven.com and SeekingAlpha.com (archive articles).

    These Companies are my Bellwether guidance as to What / When and Why I will choose to take Bullish / Bearish positions or simple hold Cash until the Market and these Companies tell me that I can profit. I seldom take positions in these Companies. There are always peer Companies with better fundamental valuations and technical charts.

    My purpose for writing these articles and providing this Saturday guidance: I do not believe today's - Investors can compete with the pros. The stock market is a whole new ball game with very different and changing rules and ethics. I hope you can understand these words and will consider retaining my asset management / consulting professional services.

    Please scroll to the bottom of this Instablog and read my Communications and Closing.

    General Market - Where are We & Where are we Going?

    This is covered in the above mentioned: Wednesday - Investing Wisely - - Market Update and Commentary. (Click Here to view my entire list of over 100 Instablogs, by date)

    My Personal Blog

    As mentioned above, I have terminated my personal blog. Click the below URL for the reasons why.

    My Blog: http://twitter.com/InvestRotation

    My Latest Postings of Published Articles and Guidance on Companies

    Before you start to review the tables below, I would like to share a few basics about my research / analytics. First, the companies in these tables are a fraction of the securities in my universe. Of the approximately 1,500 companies in my universe, seldom are any of the below companies the ones I identify with the current lowest risk and also have the highest profit profile. Second, if you do your own analytics and due diligence in the management of your portfolio, you must have the experience and know-how to be consistently profitable. I am seldom impressed with those investors whom I visit with (Email) as to their dedication to doing their homework (analytics) as well as is necessary to be consistently profitable. And Last, if you are one percent (amount of professional fees) more experienced( 50+ years) and profitable (15+% or better), then I am, why do you spend time reading my postings? If your answer is - to get ideas and guidance, I guarantee you will never be a consistently profitable investor trying to use other people's brains within these financial blogs. This is a statistical and proven fact that must be considered before you have serious losses!

    I suggest if you invest in any of these companies or ETFs without having a serious conversation with your "seasoned" financial advisor or having an Email dialog with me that - - you are definitely - not very smart!

    Table of the Companies Published in My Past SA Articles

    Note: If you are retired or seeking monthly Income you might consider sending me an Email, I have a formula that has worked very well for decades.

    A Summary of the Companies that are listed in the Table below:

    The General Market is in peril as well as a clear Bearish Cycle. That means Warnings signs are prevalent in all Companies. For an Update on a Company, please consider Emailing me and I will respond promptly.

    Highlights of this Week's Posting:

    From time to time I write an article entitled: "Dogs of the Dow and Their Selective Pals." It is a narrative to support this Saturday posting - or - perhaps this Saturday posting supports the article. Which-ever, you will profit by following my work / analytics.

    This Saturday posting covers most all of the Dow 30 Components and is my way of using these fine companies as bellwethers. They have for over 40 years lead me to the companies that I have made the most money in during bullish and bearish cycles.

    ( Click on the symbol to hyperlink to the most recent article )

    My Primary and Often ( Bellwether ) Companies

    Symbol

    ( click on the Symbol to view my most recent Article - a double Symbol means a second article is available ) - - ( click on "chart" to view a simple 20-year chart for that symbol )

    Alerts --

    ( alerts are for anticipated Buys ) -- see Key below.

    Warnings -- ( warnings are for anticipate going to Cash or Shorting ) -- see Key below.

    Current Ranking - Grade ( 0 -100 / A - F ) / Guidance

    ( keeping track of my weekly movement in Grade will help you anticipate my bullish or bearish opinion ) - - Ascending - - Status Quo - - Descending

    AAPL / AAPL

    Article in SafeHaven.com

    (Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of AAPL)

     

    Warning # 2

    87 / B+ - - - > Guidance: A bounce-rally is still in the making and AAPL will participate. A double top is likely Not to happen! After which, a lower price per share will be meaningful.

    I believe I have written a worth while Article for Seniors and others who seek a low risk monthly check. This article reviews: JNJ / PFE / AAPL / XOM / AVP in SafeHaven.com you might want to read.

    ( Click Here to read my Article )

    AA

    (( Click on ( chart ) to view of a 20-year chart of AA)

     

    Warning # 3+

    69 / D+ - - - > Guidance: AA has been in down trend for well over a year. Down over 50% and likely to come lower. There are signs it will begin to recover, but you will have to wait awhile. This past little rally will end very soon!

    AMZN

    (( Click on (chart) to a view a 20-year chart of AMZN )

     

    Warning # 2

    78 / C - - - > Guidance: AMZN is coming lower very soon. Now is a good time to take profits.

    AXP

    ((Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of AXP)

     

    Warning # 2

    74 / C - - - > Guidance: AXP has been flat to down for three months. The past two weeks of turn down is a good warning. It is coming lower. This is a Warning.

    BA

    ((Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of BA)

     

    Warning # 2

    74 / C - - - > Guidance: BA has been flat to down for over a year. This should be telling you it is not a stock to hold. It is coming lower. This is a Warning.

    BAC

    Article in SafeHaven.com

    ((Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of BAC)

     

    Warning # 3

    72 / C- - - - > Guidance: Banks are in more peril than most all other securities. On the flip side they valuate very well in the coming years. Sell on the current bounce rally that is ending soon.

    BIDU

    (( Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of BIDU)

     

    Warning # 3

    72 / C - - - > Guidance: BIDU is doing what could be positive - but it is not positive. China is in more trouble than you are being told. Do not Hold BIDU!

    C

    Article in SafeHaven.com

    ((Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of Citigroup)

     

    Warning # 2

    74 / C - - - > Guidance: Banks are in more peril than most other securities. On the flip side they valuate very well in the coming years. Sell on the bounce rally that is ending soon.

    CAT

    (( Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of BIDU)

     

    Warning # 3

    This (former) Dow leader has fallen on its face as per my Forecasts in my articles. It is coming lower. This is a Warning.

    CMCSA

    Article in SafeHaven.com

    ((Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of CMCSA)

     

    Warning # 1

    85 / B - - - > Guidance: CMCSA continues to do well. Hold but be prepared to take profits. Greed is not helpful in the management of assets.

    CSCO

    Article in SafeHaven.com

    ((Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of CSCO)

     

    Warning # 3

    68 / D+ - - - > Guidance: The Risk / Reward Ratio has been negative for months. And it still is! Something good could be in the making, but not yet! I will watch CSCO for a possible turn around in the coming months.

    CVX

    (( Click on ( chart ) to view a 20-year chart of CVX )

     

    Warning # 1

    64 / D+ - - - > Guidance: New High are nice but often give false security. A top is in the making but for now it remains a hold. HOLD.

    F

    Article in SafeHaven.com

    ((Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of FORD)

     

    Warning # 3

    87 / D+ - - - > Guidance: It's coming down - More! I gave clear Warnings again back in early March and way back in early 2011. It was selling for $16. That is / was a nice profit.

    FCX

    (( Click on ( chart ) to view a 20-year chart of FCX )

     

    Warning # 2

    73 / C_ - - - > Guidance: This has been a nice rally. My rating is coming Up. But another pull back is highly likely to come soon. Stay close to me on this Sector (Basic Materials) and you will profit.

    Send me an Email with your questions - Remember I am seeking new Clients.

    GE

    Article in SafeHaven.com

    ((Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of GE)

     

    Warning # 2

    87 / B++ - - - > Guidance: I have been wrong for a while about my warnings, but not by much. It's coming down! Prudence by taking profits will prove to be very good advice.

    GOOG

    Article in SafeHaven.com

    ((Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of GOOG)

     

    Warning # 2

    87 / B++ - - - > Guidance: GOOG is on an early Warning but that is often a good time to take profits. Warnings increased this Week to level #2. I would not touch this company on the Buy Side.

    IBM

    ((Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of IBM)

     

    Warning # 2

    82 / B - - - > Guidance: IBM was down 12% from the March / April high and has recovered some of that pull back. Warnings are not sensitive to percent drop. Percent drops are not often very helpful in forecasting.
    A repeat of the pull back and more is in the making.

    INTC

    ((Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of INTC)

     

    Warning # 2

    82 / B - - - > Guidance: INTC was down 15% from the April high. Like IBM the recent rally is anemic. Anything under $24.5 will become very serious. Why wait to sell at that point? Warnings are not sensitive to percent drop, they are not often very accurate. A repeat is in the making

    JNJ

    (( Click on ( chart ) to view a 20-year chart of JNJ )

     

    No Warning - Yet!

    87 / B++ - - - > Guidance: JNJ is doing a job as it should from my valuation work of over a year ago and monthly thereafter. The Biotech / Pharma is strong but many companies already have registered large losses. JNJ is not immune! See the 20- year chart.

    I believe I have written a worth while Article for Seniors and others who seek a low risk monthly check. This article reviews: JNJ / PFE / AAPL / XOM / AVP in SafeHaven.com you might want to read.

    ( Click Here to read my Article )

    JPM

    (( Click on ( chart ) to view a 20-year chart of JPM )

     

    Warning # 3

    64 / D+ - - - > Guidance: Banks are in more peril than most other securities. I said: Sell on the coming bounce rally. Now I say: Sell.

    KFT

    (( Click on ( chart ) to view a 20-year chart of KFT )

     

    Warning # 1

    78 / C+ - - - > Guidance: KFT has lousy valuations and yet it is on a high. Hold with extreme caution

    KO

    (( Click on ( chart ) to view a 20-year chart of KO )

     

    Warning # 1

    78 / C+ - - - > Guidance: New highs and deteriorating within my Indicators. Don't get Greedy!

    MCD

    (( Click on (chart ) to view a 20-year chart of MCD )

     

    Warning # 3

    69 / D - - - > Guidance: Down by over 10% and coming lower. Again, my articles have been offering warnings for a long time.

    MO

    (( Click on ( chart ) to view a 20-year chart of MO )

     

    Warning # 1

    92 / A- - - - > Guidance: MO is one of those strong companies that is holding the marketplace Up. Last Week's turn down is interesting and likely a good warning. Like nicotine it will get you when you are not expecting it too! Be ready to take profits.

    MRK

    (( Click on ( chart ) to view a 20-year chart of MRK )

     

    Warning # 1

    84 / B - - - > Guidance: MRK is holding its highs very well. Its problem is the economy and the fact the marketplace is in a Bearish Cycle. This means caution. Profits should be taken and Cash should be held for a re-buy of MRK or a comparable quality company.

    MSFT

    ((Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of MSFT)

     

    Warning # 2

    86 / B+ - - - > Guidance: MSFT is on a Warning # 2 and that is often a good time to take profits. That too is a Warning!

    PFE

    (( Click on ( chart ) to view a 20-year chart of PFE )

     

    Warning # 1

    89 / B+ - - - > Guidance: PFE is another strong Pharma. Use my comments for JNJ and for guidance.

    I believe I have written a worth while Article for Seniors and others who seek a low risk monthly check. This article reviews: JNJ / PFE / AAPL / XOM / AVP in SafeHaven.com you might want to read.

    ( Click Here to read my Article )

    T

    ((Click on (chart) to view a 20-year chart of AT&T)

     

    Warning # 1

    91 / A-- - - - > Guidance: AT&T and VZ are a current hold with early warnings being noted.

    VZ

    (( Click on ( chart ) to view a 20-year chart of VZ )

     

    Warning # 1

    87 / B++ - - - > Guidance: VZ and AT&T are current a pair of very strong performers.

    This will not last, I have NO intention of Buying either company at this time. I am looking for a Sell point, but do not sell yet!

    XOM

    (( Click on ( chart ) to view a 20-year chart of XOM )

     

    Warning # 2

    83 / B - - - > Guidance: XOM and the Integrated Oils are breaking down. I am increasing my Warnings. Other O&G is already down and has been for a long time. Be very careful! The recent $77 to $88 was a gift. I hope that is clear advice?

    I believe I have written a worth while Article for Seniors and others who seek a low risk monthly check. This article reviews: JNJ / PFE / AAPL / XOM / AVP in SafeHaven.com you might want to read.

    ( Click Here to read my Article )

     

    Notes for above & below Tables: Symbol is interactive with my most recent article on that company - clicking on the symbols will take you to my article. And, clicking on ( chart ) will give you a very simple chart for that company. Alerts are when I believe the company is a possible future buy. Warnings are when I believe the company is a possible sell / short. Report Card is My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every company's "Grade" can be from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.

    Further support for the above notes can be read in my Instablog article on "My Rotation Model."

    Alert Key: Alert # 1: Possible Bullish Inflection Point in the making.

    Alert # 2: Getting seriously Bullish.

    Alert # 3: Recommended Buying. (These words are in the - past tense!)

    Warning Key: Warning # 1: Possible Bearish Inflection Point in the making.

    Warning # 2: Getting seriously Bearish.

    Warning # 3: Recommended Selling / Shorting. (These words are in the - past tense!)

    - - This Guidance Is As Accurate As You Will Find On The Web - -

    To view all the companies, I have published articles about you may want to click on StockCharts Public ChartLists.

    I hope you take the time to get better acquainted with my work / analytics by reading and perhaps re-reading my (old) SA premium articles - just click on the symbol.

    You might want to consider becoming a follower here in SeekingAlpha.com. I would appreciate that. It is a signal that you like what I am sharing.

    You may have notices that I am one of the Top Instabloggers. I have you to thank for being ranked so high on the list of Instablog authors. I have only been writing for SeekingAlpha for about two years ( and took a full year off) so this is special for me. I am usually listed about number 15 in the rankings. I am retired but still maintain a growing Boutique Asset Management firm. Please Email if and when you may have interest.

    Communications

    I do not communicate with readers or followers using SA's Comments or Message center. I also do not read or respond to any Comments. In the past doing so has presented problems that I now wish to - simple avoid.

    If you would like to have a dialog with me, I will provide a prompt reply / response via Email.

    My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."

    I would of course appreciate your - Telling a Friend or Two about my Work / Analytics. . . .

    Symbols covered in the above articles:

    AA, AAPL, AMZN, AXP, BA, BAC, BIDU, C, CMCSA, CSCO, CVX, FCX, GE, GOOG, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KFT, KO, MCD, MO, MSFT, PFE, RIMM, T, VZ, WFC, WMT, XOM,

    - - -

    If you would like further information about me, my objectives for writing SA articles, and my professional services and fees.

    ( click here for my bio )

    ( click here for my objectives and professional services and fees )

    If you would like to ask questions or share thoughts - Just Send Me An Email. No Cost, No Obligation / No Fool-in ! - - and - - No Jerks Please !

    Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

    Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

    Stocks: AA, AAPL, AMZN, AXP, BA, BAC, BIDU, C, CMCSA, CSCO, CVX, FCX, GE, GOOG, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MDLZ, KO, MCD, MO, MSFT, PFE, BBRY, T, VZ, WFC, WMT, XOM
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