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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Thursday: Investing Wisely -- Market Update & Commentary - - August 16, 2012 ( Short Version ) 0 comments
    Aug 18, 2012 9:54 AM | about stocks: AA, AAPL, AMZN, BAC, BIDU, C, CMCSA, CSCO, FCX, GE, GOOG, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MCD, MO, MSFT, PFE, BBRY, T, SBUX, SIRI, VZ, WFC, WMT, XOM
    Thursday: Investing Wisely -- Market Update & Commentary - - August 16, 2012 ( Short Version )

    This Past Week

    The General Market is going no where. The excitement with AAPL is unfounded. Competition will do a job on Apple's new Iphone.

    A major Turn-Down / Bearish Cycle is over due and will be costly to all investors who are not in cash or using VERY selective short positions.

    My Current General Market Opinion

    In my articles, now exclusively in SafeHaven.com., I clearly have been bearish since early April. Calling this Bearish Cycle Inflection Point on the button was important and profitable to my Clients.

    So, Bears are now in control of the marketplace for the foreseeable future.

    As of this posting it does not look that way but I insist that we are in a Bearish Cycle. The summer and leading into the November elections will confirm my position.

    Of the many proprietary indicators that have been so accurate over the years, not one is showing any indication that a meaningful bullish cycle is coming. That means the marketplace will continue to erode moving from one sector / industry group venue to another. This rotation will, or should continue until all have been sufficiently hurt. Some will begin to rebuild earlier than others. I have a close eye on that event when it begins to take place. However, that guidance is reserved for my Clients.

    On the economic front, there is mounting evidence that the U.S. will join Great Britain in being in a full recession. I suggest that the U.S. is currently in a recession and it will be some time before it is announced by Washington. Remember there is an election coming. Washington and the media, as usual will purposefully be slow to acknowledge this fact.

    As for the general market, my fundamentals are over-valued. My technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. The economy is in much more peril than is being reported by the media.

    All the stimulus that Washington can muster will likely, and as usual be politically driven in the coming few months. The pass on QE3 is purely political. Obama will use it or something else just prior to November elections. If that is not clear manipulation, what is? With the elections coming, I suggest that the marketplace will be suffering and in need of another false promise / hope by the President.

    At this time, I am bearish on the general market and the economy for the foreseeable future.

    If you are in mutual funds or holding long securities positions, you are going to have a very hurtful summer and perhaps beyond.

    Understand from the above General Market opinion that my Guidance for most all securities is also bearish. In my articles I include the following statement: "My analytic focus is investing wisely, e.g. taking advantage of the bull / bear cycles as they occur within the overall marketplace. Integrating conservative fundamental analytics within these technical cycles means maintaining a process of the thorough and on-going analytics of many companies, sectors and industry groups."

    - - -

    Communications

    I do not communicate with readers or followers using SA's Comments or Message Center. Obviously then, I do not read or respond to any "Comments" made by the readers of my articles. In the past, doing so has presented problems that I now simple feel I must avoid.

    I would be pleased if you would like to have an Email dialog with me, I will provide a prompt reply / response via Email.

    My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."

    I would of course appreciate your - Telling a Friend or Two about my Work / Analytics.

    Symbols covered in my SA articles:

    AA, AAPL, AMZN, BAC, BIDU, C, CMCSA, CSCO, FCX, GE, GOOG, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MCD, MO, MSFT, PFE, RIMM, T, SBUX, SIRI, T, VZ, WFC, WMT, XOM

    - - -

    If you would like further information about me, my objectives for writing SA articles, and my professional services and fees.

    ( click here for my bio )

    ( click here for my objectives and professional services and fees )

    If you would like to ask questions or share thoughts - Just Send Me An Email. No Cost, No Obligation / No Fool-in !

    Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

    Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

    Stocks: AA, AAPL, AMZN, BAC, BIDU, C, CMCSA, CSCO, FCX, GE, GOOG, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MCD, MO, MSFT, PFE, BBRY, T, SBUX, SIRI, VZ, WFC, WMT, XOM
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