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Bio Bull
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I have been occasionally investing, as my personal time and money permit, via long positions over the course of 10 years. I don't work for a brokerage firm, and I'm not a professional trader. My interest has been predominantly within the biotechnology and energy sectors. I'm a CPA licensed in... More
  • Next Article Coming! 14 comments
    Dec 18, 2013 1:39 PM | about stocks: CUR

    I was hoping to get something out prior to Christmas, but I will now likely announce which stock my next article will address a week or two after Christmas. I plan to have an article completed by mid-January. It's underway, and as the holiday approaches I'll have a bit more time to research. It's a pretty good bet due to the low risk, potential for a large gain, and the fact that low volume seems to be pushing the price further downward (therefore making it an even better pick!).

    I also plan to re-visit Neuralstem (NASDAQ:CUR) if time permits. Specifically, I'd like to share some thoughts and insights into the Phase 2 ALS trials. I want to steer clear of the NSI-189 results, so I imagine something next month is more likely. Note that I don't think NSI-189 will be bad, but I don't want to recommend it with an article on the ALS trial when the depression drug results (189) could have a material impact on the stock in the very near term. Best of luck to all Neuralstem longs. I continue to like what I see in the pipeline there!

    Disclosure: I am long CUR, DNKN.

    Stocks: CUR
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Comments (14)
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  • Robert K. Stuart
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Hi red bull,

     

    Could you clarify your opinion on the upcoming nsi-189 results? Also, could you add any color to the longecity pseudo-189 "studies" that are supposedly being conducted?
    18 Dec 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Bio Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm glad you opened this one up :) First half, CUR is speculative so, whether I'm discussing Depression or ALS trials, there is substantial risk with this stock, and I don't want to hide that for readers.

     

    I believe you are referencing this study being performed:

     

    http://bit.ly/1gGX4Tf

     

    The users are reporting very positive results with little side effects, based on the pages I've reviewed. There are also reports of improved video game capabilities (thought that was funny!) and one person who was using it to treat PTSD which is one of the uses being considered for a Phase 2 trial should the Phase 1 go well.

     

    Overall, I like what I'm hearing, and it is very positive for NSI-189. I do caution this with the fact that there is no way to verify these people actually have the drug and are truthfully reporting results. There may be somewhat of a group effect - people wanting it to work and reassuring each other that it is working well. As an unofficial source though, this is very encouraging for investors hanging in for the NSI-189 results.

     

    Also, given the ALS trial having so much excitement, I think a failure in NSI-189 may not hurt the stock price too much, though it could have a huge upside.
    18 Dec 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert K. Stuart
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for getting back to me Redbull

     

    I'm a big follower of the company - I have been long since February of this year. I haven't been increasing my position - I do want to see what the outcomes of the NSI 189 trial are going to be (learned my lesson with IMUC - hence viewing CUR with a bit more caution).

     

    I would really like to see positive results with NS-189 - correct if I am wrong, but positive results would have serious implications for the treatment of neurological diseases like those being experienced by athletes due to head trauma; PTSD; Alzheimer's, etc.

     

    I was amazed to go on eBay and search up NS-189 - you can actually find vendors selling something they claim is a bootleg NS-189. I would love to get excited about the prospects based on their claims, but do not lend much credence to it for all the reasons you stated.

     

    Also very hopeful for April and her progress - for her sake and the sake of all patients suffering from ALS.

     

    I have read some contrarian viewpoints concerning the success of Ted Harada - asserting progress is perhaps due to the effects of anesthetics used during procedure - not the procedure itself. Will you be addressing these claims?

     

    Thanks!
    18 Dec 2013, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Bio Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I may get into that the whole anesthetics issue if time permits. At this point I was planning on focusing on some of the patient successes from Phase 1 and even Phase 2. I think a lot of potential information is leaked (April is a verified source from the CEO himself) that could be a good indicator.

     

    If the anesthetic were key, should we expect to see a decline in Ted Harada by now? I'll have to see if there is more research out there on that.

     

    My new stock is substantially lower in risk for a biotech. If you have a bad taste in your mouth from some of the risky picks, this one you might like. It's just gone under the radar because it wasn't public until not too long ago.
    18 Dec 2013, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • Bio Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Almost forgot... I wouldn't get trial pills on eBay :) Who knows what people might ship to you! I can understand the temptation though... a lot of people feel NSI-189 could be interesting even for a healthy brain.
    18 Dec 2013, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert K. Stuart
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Would you say this is a delay with th nsi-189 data release? Is it a red flag in the short run?
    19 Dec 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Bio Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I heard someone suggest that negative news would be held closer to Christmas, when Wall Street was on vacation... not sure if that is true though :)

     

    They had a goal of mid-December from what I could tell. I wouldn't be surprised to see the data before or on Monday. I think it's too soon to be calling it a delay as mid-December could run into this weekend and/or early next week depending on one's definition of "mid." I think if we get into January then I have to wonder what that means.
    19 Dec 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert K. Stuart
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Well, it's January and the stock is currently at new highs. I was curious if you had seen the new investor presentation on the website. In the section concerning NSI -189, they make mention of ongoing partnership talks with BP using Locustwalks - are you aware if this is a new update?

     

    Happy New Year!

     

    Rob
    2 Jan 2014, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Bio Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Rob,

     

    It is an oddly specific partnership reference, but I don't believe it is new. I recall this from when I drafted the last article as well. I was excited to see the January presentation posted but they only cleaned it up slightly and posted it again. I didn't see anything specific to updates on NSI-189 except "data under review."

     

    I'm hoping to do a piece on CUR soon, but I will likely post my next in-depth article near the 15th (more on that coming next week as I wrap-up). It's pretty long and detailed. For CUR I think it's best to see what the 189 results are so that effect is factored into the price, and I also want to hear a bit more on some of the leaks coming out of the ALS Phase 2 which I think will excite a lot of investors.
    2 Jan 2014, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Robert K. Stuart
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Red Bull,

     

    I have been monitoring April's blog - I hope that we here some good news here now that the holidays have passed. Really pulling for her.

     

    Do you have any expectations for the conference on the 14th? Also, what has your experience with investor relations been? I have tried to contact them via email but to date have received no response.

     

    Rob
    2 Jan 2014, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Bio Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm looking forward to good news as well. Jason Napodano references to it the other day in an article, but the link he had lacked important December updates (not sure why) that are very relevant. If she has good news, I'm going to feel pretty good about other ambulatory ALS patients experiencing similar results, and I would also like to tie back some of her positive experiences to the endpoints being evaluated by Neuralstem. I do understand the need to use cautionary wording from her and Garr as well if/when I share with readers.

     

    I notified Neuralstem after I posted my article, but I never heard back. They did post Smith on Stocks to their site after his SA article though so someone is there!
    2 Jan 2014, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert K. Stuart
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    What's your take on the new offering?
    3 Jan 2014, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Bio Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I was amazed a bit... not that they did the offering. I think it's great they have an extra $20 million or so in cash. What do you think they may need it for? This could be a very good sign. NSI-189 is going to lead to multiple Phase 2 tests including brain trauma and depression. What amazed me was that shares of CUR were able to rally from being down as low as $2.88 toward $3 before settling into the mid $2.90's.

     

    I added shares this morning.
    3 Jan 2014, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Robert K. Stuart
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    I spoke with IR - not that I got a whole lot of info - registered DP is exactly what it is - info on who approached $CUR will likely be available come the next prospectus/closing of shelf. Company still awaiting data results for NSI-189 - they haven't seen them yet. IR did sound as though the PI results were not that big a hurdle - just an impression I got. I too was surprised that the pps didn't take a bigger hit. I have been long since March - haven't added since then to my small position, and wish I had increased it a bit. Unlikely to now unless there is a significant pullback or after NSI-189 results.
    4 Jan 2014, 10:11 AM Reply Like
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    Mar 12, 2015
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