danielosborne's  Instablog

On Thursday before the market opens, the Department of Labor of labor will announce initial and continuing claims which should serve as a good teaser for the Friday Employment Report that will also include the March employment rate. The forecast? Private sector businesses at least added jobs for the month.

Specifically and according to the already released ADP National Employment Report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), private-sector employment increased by 209,000 from February to March plus ADP has revised upward estimated gains from December to January (+9,000 to 182,000) and from January to February (+14,000 to 230,000). Since the Department of Labor's numbers will tend to mirror the ADP numbers but perhaps be off by a few thousand plus will include public sector employment figures, investors should not expect any major surprises on Friday. In fact, the consensus is predicting that the official Employment Report will show that employers added 215,000 in March while the unemployment rate will remain steady at 8.3%.

However, the spin (remember it's an election year) and analysis has already begun of the ADP figures. And while we are a LONG way off from a healthy job market, what is probably clear is that the wheels are not falling off of the economy (at least at this point in time) and the recovery is gathering a little more steam. Moreover, firms may also be approaching the limit to what they can get out of their existing workers and will at least have to start the process to look for more workers.

Hence, investors and traders looking to trade the Friday employment report will need to do so today or on Monday as the stock market will be closed for Good Friday. The most obvious and easy choices would be to simply place bets that the Employment Report will put investors in a good mood that will send the whole market higher - meaning the easiest money might be made on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) or the iShares S&P 500 Index ETF (IVV).

Likewise, investors looking at betting on a continuation of the recovery in the job market at least for the medium-term (e.g. until the upcoming elections - all bets may be off once the politicians have secured their jobs!) should take a look at staffing and outsourcing services stocks and their year-to-date performances:

• VirtualScopics (VSCP) +66.67%
• On Assignment (ASGN) +62.16%
• AMN Healthcare Services (AHS) +41.53%
• CDI Corp.Services (CDI) +31.46%
• General Employment Enterprises (JOB) +30.95%
• ManpowerGroup (MAN) +29.26%
• TrueBlue (TBI) +24.57%
• TMS International (TMS) +23.58%
• Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI) +23.01%
• Kforce (KFRC) +22.87%
• CTPartners (CTP) +18.27%
• Dice Holdings (DHX) +13.63%
• Kelly Services (KELYA) +11.73%
• StarTek (SRT) +10.42%
• RCM Technologies (RCMT) +9.46%
• Robert Half International (RHI) +5.90%
• Paychex (PAYX) +5.74%
• Hudson Highland Group (HHGP) +4.59%
• Barrett Business Services (BBSI) 3.13%
• Heidrick & Struggles International (HSII) +2.52%
• TeamStaff (TSTF) +1.59%
• Korn/Ferry International (KFY) -3.81%
• Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN) -7.03%
• Team Health Holdings (TMH) -7.97%

Keep in mind that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the iShares S&P 500 Index ETF (IVV) are up about 11.4% since the start of the year - meaning that 13 out of these 24 staffing and outsourcing stocks have beat the S&P 500.

Nevertheless, the job market is still a long way from anything close to a full recovery and there is bound to be a few speed bumps along the way. Hence, you might want to add a few staffing and outsourcing services stocks to your NextCandle.com my portfolio page to keep an eye on where the sector is heading.

NOTE: THIS PIECE WAS JUST POSTED ON OUR BLOG AT www.nextcandle.com/blog/2012/04/economic...