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Excel Acceptance, LLC, (EA), is a specialty financial services company providing alternative funding availability to lease and loan portfolio sellers. EA is a full service funding facilitator of both large and small portfolios in addition to the individual lease or loan originated by both... More
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  • Ross Aldridge In Las Vegas Nevada Reviews Demographic Cliff Crash! 0 comments
    May 2, 2014 8:06 PM | about stocks: SKF

    Ross Aldridge in Las Vegas Nevada reviews the Demographic Cliff crash that many forecasters predict will start in the 3rd Quarter of 2014.

    Predicting a Market Crash in the third quarter of 2014 & a Demographic Cliff in the developed world could be a Lagging Indicator and may put pressure on the World Bank? What would this do to the US Financial Sector? Not much as the major Banks, Wells Fargo, Chase, Citi and Bank of America are subsidised by the Federal Reserve. As the 1st Quarter revealed:

    We are in the heart of the first-quarter earnings reporting season, and so far the results have been in line with our expectations. In other words, for the overall market there is not much to get excited about. At least in this strategist's opinion, the probability of a big earnings beat or miss at this point in the cycle is quite low. But you wouldn't't know that if you were dialed in to the financial media.

    Of course, earnings season attracts a lot of attention from the media. After all, there are many daytime hours to fill with financial news. But investors need to realize that in a very modest growth economy that features a very low level of inflation, actual results for most companies will usually not differ much from guidance. In addition, in this type of environment, most individual company analysts have an easier time confirming the guidance their companies are giving out when it comes to revenues and earnings. Sure, there will be the usual big positive and negative surprises coming from a relatively small number of individual companies, but not so much from the overall market.

    It is when the economy is either ramping up or slowing down that earnings get tough to predict, especially when things are moving quickly in a direction that is different from the recent trend. Under those conditions, even the companies themselves have a hard time issuing accurate guidance to the analyst community. And when the future is uncertain, you can bet that very few companies will go out on a limb and tell investors that everything looks really good, even if they think it does.

    But right now the future appears to be pretty certain, at least in our opinion. The modest growth/modest inflation environment could easily be with us for the next couple of years. Investors around the globe have realized this and have boosted their investment in American stocks. While growth here at home may be slow, it looks to be dependable as companies have figured out how to make money in the current environment. In fact, we look for earnings to come in at another record high this year.

    Keep in mind that earnings do not tell investors what is going to happen in the future. They merely tell the story of what happened in the past - and really just the past three months. This strategist looks at the current earnings season as more of a process of confirmation. First-quarter earnings are confirming that our outlook for the economy is correct; the below-trend growth is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. As we have pointed out many times, this is not the end of the world. Stocks can do well in a modest growth environment.

    Do not get caught up in the earnings-season hype. A big earnings surprise for the overall market is not in the cards. Focus on what the economy will do in the future because earnings are nothing more than a lagging, not leading, indicator.

    Ross Aldridge in Las Vegas Nevada regards a safe haven in SKF or a cash position. GET OUT OF ANY MARGIN POSITION! The VIX can be a BEAR when it gets loose so play the conservative investor.

    Disclosure: I am long SKF.

    Themes: GS, BAC, C Stocks: SKF
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