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October 30, 2012 - Gold & Gold Mining Stocks Santa Claus Rally? By The Gold and Oil Guy
If you own physical gold, gold mining stocks or plan on buying anything related to precious metals before year end, you are likely going to get excited because of what my analysis and outlook shows.
Since gold topped abruptly a year ago (Sept 2011) with a massive wave of selling which sent the price of gold from $1920 down to $1535, technical analysts knew that type of damage which had be done to the chart pattern could take a year or more to stabilize before gold would be able to continue higher.
Fast forwarding twelve months to today (Oct 2012). You can see that gold looks to have stabilized and is building a basing pattern (launch pad) for another major rally. The charts illustrated below show my big picture analysis, thoughts and investment idea.
Weekly Spot Gold Chart:
The weekly chart can be a very powerful tool for understanding the overall trend. This chart clearly shows the last major correction and basing pattern in gold back in 2008 - 2009. Right now gold looks to be forming a very similar pattern.
Keep in mind this is a weekly chart and if you compare the 2009 basing pattern to where we are today I still feel it could take 3 - 6 months before gold truly breaks out to the upside and kicks into high gear. The point of this chart is to provide a rough guide for what to expect in the coming weeks and months.
Weekly Chart of Junior Gold Miner Stocks:
If you follow gold closely then you likely already know junior gold mining stocks can lead the price of gold up to two weeks. Meaning gold mining stocks which you can track by looking at GDX and GDXJ exchange traded funds will form strong bullish chart patterns and generally start moving up in price before physical gold.
The chart below shows the junior gold miner ETF with a VERY BULLISH chart and volume pattern. Remember that gold stocks are a leveraged play on gold in most cases. For example, if gold moves up 1% we typically see GDX and GDXJ move 2-4%. Because they act as a leveraged play on physical gold smart money and big institutions start accumulating these investments in anticipation of gold rising.
GDXJ has formed a tight bull flag and the volume levels confirm there is big money moving into these investments. The first price target on GDXJ using technical analysis for a measured move points to the $32 area. Looking forward twelve months with gold trading above $2000 we could see this fund more than double in value.
Bonus: while most traders focus on GDX gold miner fund, I prefer the GDXJ fund because its almost identical in price performance BUT it pays you a 5% dividend…
Gold's Seasonality:
It's that time of year again where gold tends to move higher. Below you can see where we are and what the price of gold typically does in November.
Gold Investing & Trading Conclusion:
Looking forward one month (November) and factoring in the recent pullback in gold to known support levels along with strong buying of junior gold mining stocks, I feel gold will take another run at the $1800 level and for GDXJ to test its previous higher of $25.50 at minimum. If both those levels get taken out then a massive bull market for precious metals could be triggered. Only time will tell…
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Join Chicago Mercantile Exchange commentator Eric McWhinnie as he covers Gold, Silver, Gold & Silver stocks, and miners. We look for companies that based on their price today are trading at a discount now or likely bigger discount 12 months from today. The takeover game is a huge part of the resource business. Quality undervalued companies will not remain so for long.
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