Seeking Alpha

Michael Michaud's  Instablog

Michael Michaud
Send Message
Michael Michaud is the founder of Invest2Success.com (http://www.invest2success.com/) and the Invest2Success Blog (http://invest2success.blogspot.com/). He has been investing and trading in the financial markets since 1989. He founded Invest2Success.com to empower individual institutional... More
My company:
Invest2Success
My blog:
Invest2Success Blog
  • Will Holiday Spending Live Up To The Hype For Investors? 0 comments
    Nov 19, 2012 6:21 PM

    Holiday Spending

    November 19, 2012 - Will Holiday Spending Live Up to the Hype for Investors? by Zacks Investment Research

    Expectations for this year's holiday season are running high as worries over the fiscal cliff dominate the landscape. Investors are probably going to need some strong numbers on this front in order to soothe struggling equities and add a shot of optimism into the market's arm heading into 2013.

    There are at least some encouraging trends to support the hypothesis of a bullish trend such as decent e-commerce sales for the third quarter and a pretty high consumer confidence level. However, there are also some potential catalysts for a weaker-than-expected figure including recent weather events, taxation/policy worries, and a still uncertain job market.

    Personally, I can see one of four scenarios taking place:

    1. Black Friday creep/early Thanksgiving help to boost sales - The combination of an extremely early Thanksgiving leads to more weekends before Christmas-and thus more shopping time-- while the current retailer trend of sales on Thanksgiving Day combine to act as catalysts for a strong season.

    2. Fiscal cliff worries keep luxury shoppers at home - I am skeptical that the average shopper is too concerned about the fiscal cliff but I am starting to worry that the cliff will impact big ticket items for higher end buyers. With all the uncertainty, it is very possible that they hold off on some items until after the cliff is taken care of.

    3. Sandy hits discretionary spending hard - Although life has gone back to normal in much of the Northeast, many areas of the region have bigger worries than holiday shopping. If these consumers are focused in on rebuilding as opposed to shopping, it could drag down sales figures overall.

    4. None of the above really impact sales leading to average sales numbers - Worries over Sandy, the fiscal cliff, and jobs don't materialize, while retail sales calendar tricks don't help either. The real question is, will the market view this as a disappointment?

    I think we are in line for number one although #4 would not surprise me either at this point. However, I think the consumer confidence is just too high with too much pent up demand to see that weak of a season…

    What about you? Which of the four scenarios-or do you have a different one?-look likely to be the result for this year's holiday sales figures?

    Candle Charting Intensive Training

    Steve Nisons Candlestick Charting Intensive Training and Software
    for Profitably Trading Stocks Forex Futures Commodities

    Use the CandleScanner trading software to automatically scan for profitable trading setups on any timeframe. Stock forex and futures candlestick trading courses to throughly understand how to profit from candlestick chart patterns. Free newsletter and live trading webinars. Steve Nison is the authority on trading and profiting using candlesticks.

Back To Michael Michaud's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.