January 08, 2012 - Bear Markets, Lethal Flu and Hong Kong - By Elliott Wave International
Hong Kong is one of the world's most vibrant financial centers, yet its name is also synonymous with lethal influenza. It's the city where the H5N1 avian flu was discovered 15 years ago.
You probably knew that. But did you know that the H5N1 discovery -- and every major Hong Kong flu outbreak since then -- came at or near a low in the Hang Seng stock index?
Few people realize this. It takes an eye trained in Elliott wave analysis and socionomics to discern such a correlation.
The opening section of the January 2012 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast gives you a thorough review of this phenomenon -- and comes to some surprising conclusions about the Hang Seng from here (as well as a possibility of another major flu outbreak.)
Also in the new, January 2012 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast:
MARKET OVERVIEW: Among the 8 major regional markets, China, Taiwan and India continued falling to new lows in December. The other 5 did not. It's a telling divergence, and, in the words of the editor Mark Galasiewski, "My measured words may not convey what an interesting juncture markets have arrived at." Find out why inside.
INDIA: A prominent India bull at a major foreign brokerage recently threw in the towel. When Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast editor Mark Galasiewski was interviewed by India’s Bloomberg UTV in late December, several domestic analysts on the show were also bearish. India's business community despairs about the country's political and financial paralysis. Add to that the triple zigzag Elliott wave pattern that Mark's been tracking in the Nifty's price charts -- and it's getting clearer why India is at the top of Mark's list of "most exciting markets for 2012."
JAPAN: As in India, investment institutions have basically given up -- which is precisely why you probably should not. Read more in the Japan section.
CHINA: Recent declines in the Shanghai Composite retraced about 61.8% of its 2008-2009 advance. Financial companies that led the market down have actually outperformed the Shanghai Composite for several months. The Elliott wave pattern that best describes action in China's stocks is a "triangle." Learn what that means for the trend in 2012.
AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND: Following the 2009 low, analysts commonly cited the strength in China’s stock market to explain the rise in Australian and New Zealand stocks. They assumed that China’s roaring economy would pulling them along, since both nations export to China. Now the tables are turned -- details in the January issue.
Special Section: SOUTH AFRICA: South Africa’s FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index has been one of the world’s strongest performing markets since the August 2011 lows. The rally has been so strong that The Economist published an optimistic cover story on Africa in December 2011. Find out what we see for South Africa based on this and other indicators. Also: A close look at an African nationalist Julius Malema -- and his political future -- through the Elliott wave prism.
Plus: An update on stocks in Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. Tap into these insights now via a RISK-FREE subscription to The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Service. (Plus, get two of Robert Prechter's best-selling books, FREE.)
China, India, Japan, Australia and Beyond: Ride the 2012 Trends with EWI's Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Service
Here's what you get:
The Asian-Pacific Short Term Update:
Timely analysis and forecasts for the major stock indexes in Japan, China, India, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong, plus occasional updates for Taiwan, Korea and other Asian-Pacific nations. Editor and award-winning market technician Chris Carolan keeps you abreast of market moves between the monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast issues, while also providing valuable commentary on debt and forex markets.
The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast
Editor Mark Galasiewski's insightful and useful commentary on the major stock indexes in Japan, China, India, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea and more, plus on the region's financial and social trends has prompted one subscriber to write that Mark clearly has his "finger on the pulse of the local scene here."
The Elliott Wave Theorist
Trusted since 1979, Bob Prechter’s straight-talking Elliott Wave Theorist is the bedrock of EWI analysis. Delightfully contrary, refreshingly logical and downright accessible, the Theorist is a must-read for every independent investor. You get thought-provoking analysis and forecasts on the intermediate- and long-term direction of the financial markets, critical trends in investor psychology plus timely in-depth research and insights you’re guaranteed not to get from any other source.
5 Reasons to Begin Your RISK-FREE Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Service Subscription Today:
You can invest in Asia long-term with someone on your side who knows the region. -- Mark Galasiewski (gala-SHEV-ski), editor of the monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, lived and worked in Asia through most of the 1990s. He's fluent in Japanese and conversant in Mandarin Chinese. Few U.S.-based analysts are better equipped to bring you "tomorrow's news today" from the Asian-Pacific region.
You get short-term commentary from an award-winning analyst. -- Long-time EWI subscribers will recognize Chris Carolan's name. This "technician's technician" was recipient of the Charles Dow Award (1998), and has 30 years of financial experience as a floor trader, market-maker and analyst. He delivers his expertise in the pages of The Asian-Pacific Short Term Update each Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, with in-depth coverage of the region, so you’re prepared for near-term action throughout the week before the markets open.
You get occasional special commentary on opportunities in "overlooked" markets. -- These overlooked markets include the Philippines, Malaysia, New Zealand, Indonesia and the Near East. The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Service also includes occasional commentary on debt and foreign exchange markets. You can also count on insightful perspective on unfolding news stories and how they relate to the region's social mood.
You get forecasts and insights across multiple time frames, from 3 publications that keep you ahead of the herd. -- The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Service is indeed 3 publications working together to present opportunities and identify dangers mainstream experts cannot anticipate. Our analysts' work is never biased by herd psychology or past market performance.
Subscriber-Only Extras -- FREE! -- Your risk-free Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Service subscription gives you instant online access to EWI's advanced Elliott wave tutorial, classic EWI reports, multimedia files, answers from analysts on EWI's Message Board, educational tools, and more. Best of all, it's completely free.
Get instant, risk-free online access to The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Service now >>
Free Video: The ULTIMATE Trading Plan | Adrian Manz | Market Authority