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Michael Michaud is the founder of Invest2Success.com (http://www.invest2success.com/) and the Invest2Success Blog (http://invest2success.blogspot.com/). He has been investing and trading in the financial markets since 1989. He founded Invest2Success.com to empower individual institutional... More
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  • Time To Sell EUR/USD? JP Morgan Targeting 1.3450 & 1.3130 0 comments
    Feb 20, 2014 4:49 AM | about stocks: JPM

    Time to sell EUR/USD ? … targeting 1.3450 & 1.3130 - JP Morgan (JPM - Trend Report). US dollar rises and stocks fall after FOMC minutes yestarday.

    Japan's Nikkei -2.15%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -1.19%, Korea's Kospi -0.64%, Australia's ASX 200 0.11% and China's Shanghai -0.18%.

    Federal Reserve policy makers plan to soon change their guidance for the path of interest rates as unemployment declines toward a threshold for considering an increase in borrowing costs, minutes of their January meeting showed. "Participants agreed that, with the unemployment rate approaching 6.5 percent, it would soon be appropriate for the Committee to change its forward guidance in order to provide information about its decisions regarding the federal funds rate after that threshold was crossed,"

    The classical countertrend rally in EUR/USD is approaching its key- resistance zone between 1.3795/1.3822 (minor 76.4 %/pivot) and 1.3880/93 (monthly trend/last top), notes JP Morgan in a technical note to clients. Such a move, according to JPM, looks massive and will certainly cap the upside in case we are only dealing with a countertrend rally. "If so, the downside would remain wide open for a minimum decline to 1.3436 (minor 76.4 %) with a strong option to extend to 1.3104/01 (pivot/internal wave 3 projection)," JPM projects.

    Risks of prolonged market turmoil in emerging markets and of deflation in the euro area are threatening the world's improved economic prospects, IMF staff wrote in a note prepared for central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of 20. Ministers meet this weekend in Sydney.

    Fed's Bullard says sees steady taper based on positive economic outlook, economic outlook would have to worsen significantly to pause taper.

    Treasury Secretary Jack Lew late Wednesday said the U.S. can play a stronger hand at the G-20 meeting in Australia having seen the U.S. debt-limit issue resolved, a budget and the farm bill passed as well as having produced months of "pretty positive" economic data.

    US Treasuries rebounded from the biggest drop in a week and Japan's five-year government yield sank to a 10-month low. U.S. 10-year yields fell three basis points to 2.71 percent. Treasuries dropped yesterday as minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting indicated policy makers won't let weaker economic reports interrupt plans to taper stimulus.

    BOJ's Morimoto: It's not appropriate to say now what would require additional monetary easing. BOJ board member in a press conference after meeting: If risks appear and lead to change in BOJ forecast than they would adjust policy BOJ policy is not limited to reacting to economic data after the results are known recovery in advanced economies will lead to growth in emerging economies overseas demand a little weak but do not see risk to economic outlook increase in corporate profits is driving demand in business investment.

    The People's Bank of China plans to expand the yuan's trading band this year in an "orderly" manner as it moves toward a more convertible currency. The PBOC will also continue to broaden cross-border usage of the yuan, it said in a statement on its website yesterday after a Feb. 17-18 conference.

    Australia's dollar weakened and copper slid as a private survey showed a faster-than-estimated drop in China's manufacturing. South Korea's won led emerging-market currencies lower.

    A preliminary February purchasing managers' gauge from HSBC and Markit Economics fell to 48.3, signaling a second month of contraction for Chinese manufacturing and missing an economists' estimate for 49.5.

    Watch today: Eurozone PMIs, US jobless claims, US PMI.

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