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Rocco Pendola
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Rocco Pendola lives in Santa Monica, California. Rocco earned a BA in urban studies from San Francisco State University and completed two years of PhD study at the University of California-Irvine. Publisher (with Robert Weinstein) of a weekly Options Investing newsletter for $29.99/month:... More
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  • Win Investing-Related Stuff (No Purchase Necessary!) 106 comments
    Jan 23, 2012 8:17 PM | about stocks: NFLX
    A couple of things triggered this idea in me. This morning, I read about Clear Channel (CCMO.PK) Los Angeles getting fined by the FCC for some contest violation. And I saw where the Wall Street Journal will mention your name in the paper (whippie!) if you come closest to guessing the closing price of a stock they select.

    I'm going to do one better on the Journal.

    Netflix (NFLX) reports earnings on Wednesday after the close. No matter how the report turns out, the stock probably moves hard on Thursday.

    Here's the contest: Guess the price NFLX will close at on Thursday. Do not email me your guess. Leave it in the comments section of THIS article so it becomes a matter of public record. The two closest guesses win. In case of a tie, we'll go to volume. Whoever comes closest to the number of shares trades in NFLX on Thursday (regular session only) wins a tiebreaker. So, make sure you answer both questions in your comment:

    1. What will NFLX close at this Thursday, 1/26?
    2. How many shares will trade in NFLX this Thursday, 1/26?
    Prizes... the closest guess gets a lifetime subscription to the options investing newsletter/subscription service run by Robert Weinstein and me. Closest guess also gets a free copy of my basic options strategy eBook.

    The second closest gets a copy of the eBook for free via email.

    If, however, you do not like contests, never win them or simply want one or both of these products right away, you can, of course, purchase them now at the following links:

    Basic Options Trading: Options Strategies For Beginners eBook at Amazon.com.

    Sign up here for the Options Investing Newsletter and subscription service, which will include model portfolios, long-term trade ideas, speculative options trades, dividend capture ideas from Robert and education on basic to intermediate-level options strategies. We're both pretty excited about this. We publish it weekly on Tuesdays with real-time updates several times per week.

    So, there you have it, leave your TWO guesses in the comments. Closing price for NFLX this Thursday and the number of shares traded in the stock on that day.

    If you are so inclined, please use the tabs at the top of the post to recommend this instablog on Seeking Alpha and share it on Facebook, Twitter and Google + so we can really make things exciting.

    Disclosure: I am short NFLX.

    Additional disclosure: Author is short NFLX via a position in June $40 put options.

    Stocks: NFLX
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This post has 106 comments:

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  •  
    25 & 52m in vol (or whatever the entire float is at the moment)
    23 Jan, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $94.00
    24 Jan, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I'm liking the odds here :)
    23 Jan, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  •  
    8.7 million shares 73
    23 Jan, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $63.78
    34 million shares volume
    23 Jan, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  •  
    58.08 and 44.5 million shares. However, low could be under 50
    23 Jan, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    79.8 13.3 million shares
    23 Jan, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $73.23 on 22mil vol
    23 Jan, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    48 and 30.5 million shares
    23 Jan, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $ 121.47 65 mil

    I am the only bull here ! :)
    23 Jan, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $49.79 and 50.5 million shares. This is fun.
    24 Jan, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $65.50 and 30 million
    24 Jan, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $45 and 40 million shares
    24 Jan, 04:21 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I really hope you're right.

    Disclosure: Long NFLX $40 June put options.
    24 Jan, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Me too.

    Disclosure: Long NFLX $50 June put options and short shares.
    25 Jan, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $63.65 volume 38.74M
    24 Jan, 04:23 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $76.50
    45 million share volume
    24 Jan, 04:23 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $77.51 41M Vol
    24 Jan, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $94.89
    50M
    these entries have time decay
    24 Jan, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Oh why not? $67.50 / 37 mil
    24 Jan, 06:42 AM Reply Like
  •  
    81.88 on 8 million..
    24 Jan, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  •  
    We are going to go with 80.98 per share with volume of 31.63 million shares.
    24 Jan, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $72 on 30 million
    24 Jan, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $68 per share on 35 million shares
    24 Jan, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $58.36 and 48 million shares
    24 Jan, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $111 on 42 million shares.
    24 Jan, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $76.50 price and 38M Vol.
    24 Jan, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Thanks for all of the votes. Keep them coming and feel free to recommend and share this post.
    24 Jan, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  •  
    32 mil on volume Price- $68.25
    24 Jan, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I dont like it man, too many people betting against it... I will say $125 with 8 million shares traded....
    24 Jan, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $73.25 on 19m shares
    24 Jan, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I forgot to guess...

    Even though I cannot win, here it goes...

    49.5M shares and a closing price of $78.51.
    24 Jan, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $79.21, vol = 28 million
    24 Jan, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  •  
    75.44$ 30M volume
    24 Jan, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $75 and 45M Shrs.
    24 Jan, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $115 closing price, 40M shares traded
    24 Jan, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Great guesses and getting some bulls, which is nice. Keep 'em coming. You have until the close on Thursday.

    Of course, you can always just go ahead and subscribe to the newsletter now (which gets you a free copy of the eBook)-- http://bit.ly/wbmj9l

    Or buy the eBook by itself at Amazon-- http://amzn.to/AnRWzW
    24 Jan, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $84.45 and 44.5 Million
    24 Jan, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $110 and 22M shares. Please keep in mind that I am extremely bearish, but I'd like to hedge my bets. I'll make immense profits if this thing tanks, if it goes up maybe I can win a book?

    Here ya go Rocco, if NFLX clears $70 at ANY point on Thursday, I'll buy your book and consider subscribing to the options newsletter as well...
    24 Jan, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    You just undercut me at $111... good play. I should have waited until everybody's bets were in and done the same thing.

    Good call.
    25 Jan, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $69.99, 29.99M
    24 Jan, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Same 36.6% dump as last time - $58.44 (see I have company in the 58 range :)
    Vol 42.5M
    24 Jan, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  •  
    65.66 27 mil shares
    24 Jan, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  •  
    62.78$ 34.5M volume
    24 Jan, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  •  
    79.99$ 30M volume
    24 Jan, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $42.87 and 47.73million shares
    24 Jan, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    time to be realistic for NFLX.

    78.24

    34 mil

    r/n
    24 Jan, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $78.75, 36M
    24 Jan, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $84.46 and 44.4 million.

    I actually think it might go a lot lower, but you know, prices below 80 are crowded in this post =)

    Rocco, shouldn't guessing be closed once they report on Wed?
    24 Jan, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $66.60 on 66.6M
    24 Jan, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I hope for lower but I am saying;

    $76.87 and 36M
    24 Jan, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  •  
    85 - 40 million shares
    24 Jan, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $51.80
    52 million shares
    25 Jan, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $93.89
    9 mil
    25 Jan, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $99, 12m shares.
    25 Jan, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $72 , 34 mil shares
    25 Jan, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Nice to see new people either signing up or making their first comment on Seeking Alpha. All it takes is a freebie and a shot at bragging rights!

    Going to be an exciting time right after the close today.
    25 Jan, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $82.15 on 33M shares
    25 Jan, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $64; 41M shares
    25 Jan, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  •  
    73.43$ 30 mil shares
    25 Jan, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  •  
    88.98 46million shares
    25 Jan, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  •  
    81.18 on 34.4M shares
    25 Jan, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  •  
    putting my money where my mouth is. buying 90 Feb put.
    25 Jan, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    OUCH!
    25 Jan, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $80.79 41 million shares
    25 Jan, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Don't forget volume... numbers at tomorrow's (Thursday 1/26) close.
    25 Jan, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  •  
    74.83 on 49.3M shares
    25 Jan, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $70 on 28mill shares.
    25 Jan, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $85.50 13.2mil
    25 Jan, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  •  
    117.5 - 47.8 Million
    25 Jan, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I am going to say : $78 dollars a share with 14 million shares traded.
    25 Jan, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $75, 20M volume ....I do hope it can close lower though
    25 Jan, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $73.50 & 48M in volume
    25 Jan, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $62.33 on 40M shares
    25 Jan, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Looks like bulls won this one
    25 Jan, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  •  
    That would be true. Pretty wild.

    At least that makes it easier for me to weed through and find the winners tomorrow, assuming this trend holds.
    25 Jan, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Trend should hold. No way they are going to go from +12% to Negative anything. They beat top and bottom line. Expectations for 2012 don't matter.
    25 Jan, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    They should matter.

    It's already pulled back considerably. I don't expect it to swoon, but do not be shocked if it does.
    25 Jan, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $81.50

    32M vol
    25 Jan, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $78 CLOSE; 34 MM shares will trade Thursday.
    25 Jan, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  •  
    You do understand that they looked to have crushed it and you posted this after they were already up 15% in After Hours trading?
    25 Jan, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    "Sometimes initial comments get held for moderation."
    25 Jan, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $64.53 55mil
    25 Jan, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $82.5

    32M volume
    25 Jan, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $50.50, 68.5M
    Great Contest Thx
    25 Jan, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  •  
    These guesses after the close do not count, FYI. And they're incredibly optimistic, if you're a bear, of course. :-)
    25 Jan, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  •  
    it took 45 mins for my guess to post on here ... i submitted it way before close
    25 Jan, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I believe that. Sometimes initial comments get held for moderation. It's all good, though. Odds are you will not be correct.

    Thanks for catching that, though.
    25 Jan, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    If after hours is any indicator, it looks like I might win that book! If only I had hedged in real life as well. It's a learning experience, I guess... The overall negative sentiment on our articles should have been a tipoff.
    25 Jan, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Winners will be announced shortly after Thursday's close. Prizes sent immediately. :-)

    I will message the winners via Seeking Alpha for email addresses.
    25 Jan, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Only 10% left to get to my bet tomorrow - lol. I thought it was a tidy tiny tat high.
    25 Jan, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  •  
    BTW, I bought shares today; small position, I know, but hey.
    25 Jan, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Hey. Good move. Good on and for you.
    25 Jan, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    For your info: Size is 4% of my holdings - just in case you want to add it to what I sent you. I also doubled up on AAPL.
    25 Jan, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Yeah congrats, I wish I had hedged my puts with 50 or so shares!

    Yeah you heard that correctly - hedge my options with shares... haha
    25 Jan, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $121.55 and 33,684,432 shares for $NFLX

    Yeah, I know I can't win this, but I might as well give it a guess and there is 8 hours of trading to go, lots can happen
    25 Jan, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  •  
    $101 @ 30M shares traded

    :-)
    26 Jan, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  •  
    $118.45 31M shares.
    26 Jan, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I think I might win this with my call from yesterday for 117.5
    26 Jan, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  •  
    That'd be the icing on the cake- haha! Good luck man. I wish I'd pulled the trigger on those $105 calls to hedge my position or bought a few stocks, but ultimately my conviction was too bearish.
    26 Jan, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Somehow I had a gut feeling after seeing the reactions to other earnings reports. The slightest good news would kill all those shorts I thought. I think NFLX is a miserable company though and thus sold my shares.
    26 Jan, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Looks like timml, one comment only and he already won! Nice guess.
    26 Jan, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Need to do this now. I forgot!

    Thanks!!
    26 Jan, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Okay... tmml wins at $115.Only $0.99 off.

    Second place goes to screamin87 at $111.

    Good stuff.

    Remember you can order a subscription to the options newsletter here: http://bit.ly/wbmj9l

    And buy the options eBook here: http://amzn.to/xYIQiu

    Just got a great review from Kirkus. Cannot wait until it posts.
    26 Jan, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Second place goes to me with 117.5 - just for the record. And I put my money where my mouth is :)
    26 Jan, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Oops!

    Sorry about that.

    Honest error. Send me your email and you get the options book. screamin87 already bought a copy anyway.
    26 Jan, 06:14 PM Reply Like
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