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Rocco Pendola
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Rocco Pendola is an editor at Seeking Alpha.
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Basic Options Trading Strategies for Beginners
  • Win Investing-Related Stuff (No Purchase Necessary!) 106 comments
    Jan 23, 2012 8:17 PM | about stocks: NFLX
    A couple of things triggered this idea in me. This morning, I read about Clear Channel (CCMO.PK) Los Angeles getting fined by the FCC for some contest violation. And I saw where the Wall Street Journal will mention your name in the paper (whippie!) if you come closest to guessing the closing price of a stock they select.

    I'm going to do one better on the Journal.

    Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) reports earnings on Wednesday after the close. No matter how the report turns out, the stock probably moves hard on Thursday.

    Here's the contest: Guess the price NFLX will close at on Thursday. Do not email me your guess. Leave it in the comments section of THIS article so it becomes a matter of public record. The two closest guesses win. In case of a tie, we'll go to volume. Whoever comes closest to the number of shares trades in NFLX on Thursday (regular session only) wins a tiebreaker. So, make sure you answer both questions in your comment:

    1. What will NFLX close at this Thursday, 1/26?
    2. How many shares will trade in NFLX this Thursday, 1/26?
    Prizes... the closest guess gets a lifetime subscription to the options investing newsletter/subscription service run by Robert Weinstein and me. Closest guess also gets a free copy of my basic options strategy eBook.

    The second closest gets a copy of the eBook for free via email.

    If, however, you do not like contests, never win them or simply want one or both of these products right away, you can, of course, purchase them now at the following links:

    Basic Options Trading: Options Strategies For Beginners eBook at Amazon.com.

    Sign up here for the Options Investing Newsletter and subscription service, which will include model portfolios, long-term trade ideas, speculative options trades, dividend capture ideas from Robert and education on basic to intermediate-level options strategies. We're both pretty excited about this. We publish it weekly on Tuesdays with real-time updates several times per week.

    So, there you have it, leave your TWO guesses in the comments. Closing price for NFLX this Thursday and the number of shares traded in the stock on that day.

    If you are so inclined, please use the tabs at the top of the post to recommend this instablog on Seeking Alpha and share it on Facebook, Twitter and Google + so we can really make things exciting.

    Disclosure: I am short NFLX.

    Additional disclosure: Author is short NFLX via a position in June $40 put options.

    Stocks: NFLX
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Comments (106)
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  • Canary Cash
    , contributor
    Comments (471) | Send Message
     
    25 & 52m in vol (or whatever the entire float is at the moment)
    23 Jan 2012, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • GREBO
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    $94.00
    24 Jan 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Canary Cash
    , contributor
    Comments (471) | Send Message
     
    I'm liking the odds here :)
    23 Jan 2012, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Jason F
    , contributor
    Comments (217) | Send Message
     
    8.7 million shares 73
    23 Jan 2012, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • BadCop_NoDonuts
    , contributor
    Comments (482) | Send Message
     
    $63.78
    34 million shares volume
    23 Jan 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • jimmach123
    , contributor
    Comments (257) | Send Message
     
    58.08 and 44.5 million shares. However, low could be under 50
    23 Jan 2012, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Hecta
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    79.8 13.3 million shares
    23 Jan 2012, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • beggar8
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    $73.23 on 22mil vol
    23 Jan 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Verd
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    48 and 30.5 million shares
    23 Jan 2012, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    $ 121.47 65 mil

     

    I am the only bull here ! :)
    23 Jan 2012, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • danwslee
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    $49.79 and 50.5 million shares. This is fun.
    24 Jan 2012, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  • AlphaVolume
    , contributor
    Comments (243) | Send Message
     
    $65.50 and 30 million
    24 Jan 2012, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • DehTrader
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    $45 and 40 million shares
    24 Jan 2012, 04:21 AM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I really hope you're right.

     

    Disclosure: Long NFLX $40 June put options.
    24 Jan 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • BradG
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    Me too.

     

    Disclosure: Long NFLX $50 June put options and short shares.
    25 Jan 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Hartms07
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    $63.65 volume 38.74M
    24 Jan 2012, 04:23 AM Reply Like
  • Berwyn
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    $76.50
    45 million share volume
    24 Jan 2012, 04:23 AM Reply Like
  • Onelessgod
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    $77.51 41M Vol
    24 Jan 2012, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  • Modernist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    $94.89
    50M
    these entries have time decay
    24 Jan 2012, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • Stangyone
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Oh why not? $67.50 / 37 mil
    24 Jan 2012, 06:42 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    81.88 on 8 million..
    24 Jan 2012, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • scottie924
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    We are going to go with 80.98 per share with volume of 31.63 million shares.
    24 Jan 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Fearful Optimism
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    $72 on 30 million
    24 Jan 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • ChartProphet
    , contributor
    Comments (139) | Send Message
     
    $68 per share on 35 million shares
    24 Jan 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • nedved
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    $58.36 and 48 million shares
    24 Jan 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • screamin187
    , contributor
    Comments (295) | Send Message
     
    $111 on 42 million shares.
    24 Jan 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • paaru7
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    $76.50 price and 38M Vol.
    24 Jan 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for all of the votes. Keep them coming and feel free to recommend and share this post.
    24 Jan 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Rjjr38
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    32 mil on volume Price- $68.25
    24 Jan 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • fla6987
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    I dont like it man, too many people betting against it... I will say $125 with 8 million shares traded....
    24 Jan 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • joey554
    , contributor
    Comments (605) | Send Message
     
    $73.25 on 19m shares
    24 Jan 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I forgot to guess...

     

    Even though I cannot win, here it goes...

     

    49.5M shares and a closing price of $78.51.
    24 Jan 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • h8ter
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    $79.21, vol = 28 million
    24 Jan 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • BURAKKUHO_RU
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    75.44$ 30M volume
    24 Jan 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • jdishart
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    $75 and 45M Shrs.
    24 Jan 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • timml
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    $115 closing price, 40M shares traded
    24 Jan 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Great guesses and getting some bulls, which is nice. Keep 'em coming. You have until the close on Thursday.

     

    Of course, you can always just go ahead and subscribe to the newsletter now (which gets you a free copy of the eBook)-- http://bit.ly/wbmj9l

     

    Or buy the eBook by itself at Amazon-- http://amzn.to/AnRWzW
    24 Jan 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • cj3j
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    $84.45 and 44.5 Million
    24 Jan 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • J Mintzmyer
    , contributor
    Comments (3674) | Send Message
     
    $110 and 22M shares. Please keep in mind that I am extremely bearish, but I'd like to hedge my bets. I'll make immense profits if this thing tanks, if it goes up maybe I can win a book?

     

    Here ya go Rocco, if NFLX clears $70 at ANY point on Thursday, I'll buy your book and consider subscribing to the options newsletter as well...
    24 Jan 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • screamin187
    , contributor
    Comments (295) | Send Message
     
    You just undercut me at $111... good play. I should have waited until everybody's bets were in and done the same thing.

     

    Good call.
    25 Jan 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • laundryanto
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    $69.99, 29.99M
    24 Jan 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • DWNelson
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Same 36.6% dump as last time - $58.44 (see I have company in the 58 range :)
    Vol 42.5M
    24 Jan 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • raider x
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    65.66 27 mil shares
    24 Jan 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • user207582
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    62.78$ 34.5M volume
    24 Jan 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Jack Beyer
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    79.99$ 30M volume
    24 Jan 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Adric Lister
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    $42.87 and 47.73million shares
    24 Jan 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    time to be realistic for NFLX.

     

    78.24

     

    34 mil

     

    r/n
    24 Jan 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • jerometl
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    $78.75, 36M
    24 Jan 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Walter Lu
    , contributor
    Comments (184) | Send Message
     
    $84.46 and 44.4 million.

     

    I actually think it might go a lot lower, but you know, prices below 80 are crowded in this post =)

     

    Rocco, shouldn't guessing be closed once they report on Wed?
    24 Jan 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • SirDodson
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    $66.60 on 66.6M
    24 Jan 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • joshmfish
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I hope for lower but I am saying;

     

    $76.87 and 36M
    24 Jan 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • stesta97
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    85 - 40 million shares
    24 Jan 2012, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • Scott Ginal
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    $51.80
    52 million shares
    25 Jan 2012, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • Bruce Robinson
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    $93.89
    9 mil
    25 Jan 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • callseller
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    $99, 12m shares.
    25 Jan 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • MershoBoi
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    $72 , 34 mil shares
    25 Jan 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nice to see new people either signing up or making their first comment on Seeking Alpha. All it takes is a freebie and a shot at bragging rights!

     

    Going to be an exciting time right after the close today.
    25 Jan 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • updownandaround
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    $82.15 on 33M shares
    25 Jan 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • BradG
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    $64; 41M shares
    25 Jan 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • dutch master
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    73.43$ 30 mil shares
    25 Jan 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • John R. Conway
    , contributor
    Comments (341) | Send Message
     
    88.98 46million shares
    25 Jan 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • alpha-man
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    81.18 on 34.4M shares
    25 Jan 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • AlphaVolume
    , contributor
    Comments (243) | Send Message
     
    putting my money where my mouth is. buying 90 Feb put.
    25 Jan 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • AlphaVolume
    , contributor
    Comments (243) | Send Message
     
    OUCH!
    25 Jan 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Pardini
    , contributor
    Comments (423) | Send Message
     
    $80.79 41 million shares
    25 Jan 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Don't forget volume... numbers at tomorrow's (Thursday 1/26) close.
    25 Jan 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Market Maven
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    74.83 on 49.3M shares
    25 Jan 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Ricardo Espinosa
    , contributor
    Comments (459) | Send Message
     
    $70 on 28mill shares.
    25 Jan 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • cheme
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    $85.50 13.2mil
    25 Jan 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    117.5 - 47.8 Million
    25 Jan 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • joemarolla23
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    I am going to say : $78 dollars a share with 14 million shares traded.
    25 Jan 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • hjh108
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    $75, 20M volume ....I do hope it can close lower though
    25 Jan 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • ryanstirling
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    $73.50 & 48M in volume
    25 Jan 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • sharpCocoa
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    $62.33 on 40M shares
    25 Jan 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • alpha-man
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Looks like bulls won this one
    25 Jan 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That would be true. Pretty wild.

     

    At least that makes it easier for me to weed through and find the winners tomorrow, assuming this trend holds.
    25 Jan 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Josh Krause
    , contributor
    Comments (1361) | Send Message
     
    Trend should hold. No way they are going to go from +12% to Negative anything. They beat top and bottom line. Expectations for 2012 don't matter.
    25 Jan 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They should matter.

     

    It's already pulled back considerably. I don't expect it to swoon, but do not be shocked if it does.
    25 Jan 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • serge7
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    $81.50

     

    32M vol
    25 Jan 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • jaredmeyer
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    $78 CLOSE; 34 MM shares will trade Thursday.
    25 Jan 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Josh Krause
    , contributor
    Comments (1361) | Send Message
     
    You do understand that they looked to have crushed it and you posted this after they were already up 15% in After Hours trading?
    25 Jan 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • jaredmeyer
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    "Sometimes initial comments get held for moderation."
    25 Jan 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • richstripe07
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    $64.53 55mil
    25 Jan 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • serge7
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    $82.5

     

    32M volume
    25 Jan 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • volshark4@yahoo.com
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    $50.50, 68.5M
    Great Contest Thx
    25 Jan 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » These guesses after the close do not count, FYI. And they're incredibly optimistic, if you're a bear, of course. :-)
    25 Jan 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • serge7
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    it took 45 mins for my guess to post on here ... i submitted it way before close
    25 Jan 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe that. Sometimes initial comments get held for moderation. It's all good, though. Odds are you will not be correct.

     

    Thanks for catching that, though.
    25 Jan 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • J Mintzmyer
    , contributor
    Comments (3674) | Send Message
     
    If after hours is any indicator, it looks like I might win that book! If only I had hedged in real life as well. It's a learning experience, I guess... The overall negative sentiment on our articles should have been a tipoff.
    25 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Winners will be announced shortly after Thursday's close. Prizes sent immediately. :-)

     

    I will message the winners via Seeking Alpha for email addresses.
    25 Jan 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    Only 10% left to get to my bet tomorrow - lol. I thought it was a tidy tiny tat high.
    25 Jan 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    BTW, I bought shares today; small position, I know, but hey.
    25 Jan 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hey. Good move. Good on and for you.
    25 Jan 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • J Mintzmyer
    , contributor
    Comments (3674) | Send Message
     
    Yeah congrats, I wish I had hedged my puts with 50 or so shares!

     

    Yeah you heard that correctly - hedge my options with shares... haha
    25 Jan 2012, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    For your info: Size is 4% of my holdings - just in case you want to add it to what I sent you. I also doubled up on AAPL.
    25 Jan 2012, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Weinstein
    , contributor
    Comments (893) | Send Message
     
    $121.55 and 33,684,432 shares for $NFLX

     

    Yeah, I know I can't win this, but I might as well give it a guess and there is 8 hours of trading to go, lots can happen
    25 Jan 2012, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • coach02740
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    $101 @ 30M shares traded

     

    :-)
    26 Jan 2012, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • kman22
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    $118.45 31M shares.
    26 Jan 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    I think I might win this with my call from yesterday for 117.5
    26 Jan 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • J Mintzmyer
    , contributor
    Comments (3674) | Send Message
     
    That'd be the icing on the cake- haha! Good luck man. I wish I'd pulled the trigger on those $105 calls to hedge my position or bought a few stocks, but ultimately my conviction was too bearish.
    26 Jan 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    Somehow I had a gut feeling after seeing the reactions to other earnings reports. The slightest good news would kill all those shorts I thought. I think NFLX is a miserable company though and thus sold my shares.
    26 Jan 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • J Mintzmyer
    , contributor
    Comments (3674) | Send Message
     
    Looks like timml, one comment only and he already won! Nice guess.
    26 Jan 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Need to do this now. I forgot!

     

    Thanks!!
    26 Jan 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Okay... tmml wins at $115.Only $0.99 off.

     

    Second place goes to screamin87 at $111.

     

    Good stuff.

     

    Remember you can order a subscription to the options newsletter here: http://bit.ly/wbmj9l

     

    And buy the options eBook here: http://amzn.to/xYIQiu

     

    Just got a great review from Kirkus. Cannot wait until it posts.
    26 Jan 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    Second place goes to me with 117.5 - just for the record. And I put my money where my mouth is :)
    26 Jan 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6132) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Oops!

     

    Sorry about that.

     

    Honest error. Send me your email and you get the options book. screamin87 already bought a copy anyway.
    26 Jan 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
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