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Seeking investments without using the ridiculous style-box approach. If I can make a return in excess of what I judge the risk to be, I'll invest. Over time, using a Kelly formula, I tend to weight positions from 2-10%. A diversified portfolio is a career-saving move, not an investment... More
  • CTB Commentary 4 comments
    Sep 23, 2013 11:30 PM | about stocks: CTB

    some commentary from Oscar Gruss & Son on CTB

    I'm not familiar with the company's track record but agree with their analysis. However, it's far less 'clean' than it was several weeks ago.

    Personally, I've moved it into the high-risk category and probably will aggressively trade around a postition to lower my basis and/or reduce exposure. With good news I'd aggressively add esp as deals with a certain 'smell' will maintain a large spread to the last minute- allowing plenty of time to add prior to close.

    Just My Opinion. AT.

    Stocks: CTB
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  • Special Situations and Arbs
    , contributor
    Comments (1427) | Send Message
    Good read AT thanks for posting. How does one get a password for that blog. The guy seems pretty bright
    23 Sep 2013, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • arbtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (541) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » No idea at all. It was the product of a late night Google...third keyword combo try for the reason for the plunge today.


    Its good commentary. Backed me off the edge of the cliff, so to speak.


    Rest of commentary seems behind paywall- which is a shame to keep all that talent hidden from the world......(ha). AT
    24 Sep 2013, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • Special Situations and Arbs
    , contributor
    Comments (1427) | Send Message
    Yeah I don't much enjoy a plunging arb especially when it is in my portfolio. I like your approach:Keep a core and trade around it. I have a bunch of short 25 puts which should the deal break and should they trade under 25 by expiration I will own. I also am short some 29 puts, which I took in more than a dollar for. Still much prefer the HNZ and BMC type deals.....less pit in stomach.
    Anyhow the blogger's downside was 27. Chris is using 25. What comforts me the most is the fact that the auto industry is on fire. GT has handily outperformed CBT since the day of CBT's takeout. Talk about odd.
    24 Sep 2013, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • arbtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (541) | Send Message
    Author’s reply »


    more details on the china court decision that caused the plunge yesterday. Looks like it's tied up in the legendary chinese bureaucracy now. sigh. AT.
    24 Sep 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
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