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Mr. Rosenman has nearly 15-years executive experience in the health and wellness sectors, including weight loss, cosmetics skincare and nutrition, both Rx and OTC. Expertise areas include strategic market and product planning and corporate development (evaluation, recommendation and execution of... More
  • Amarin Vascepa Sales Data Misleading 38 comments
    Mar 25, 2013 11:15 AM | about stocks: AMRN

    Although IMS is reporting scripts data for Vascepa that is higher than Lovaza launch, it seems investors are not pleased. But, are they reading that data right? The answer is not at all. If you are assuming that AMRN only has the scripts reported by IMS, you are not paying attention to what is going on. Amarin has a free drug program going on that to my estimates is pulling 3X more patients in than IMS is reporting. Free scripts don't get reported. You will eventually see these come on board as paid prescriptions down the line, but to ignore the promotional strategy would be a mistake. It's likely scripts are over 4-5K / week already, but AMRN will not offer any PR..And they shouldn't. Why let a competitor know what's going on.

    Stocks: AMRN
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Comments (38)
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  • Don't let a competitor know is a priority. But leave the shareholder in chill, really?
    25 Mar 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yes - they are under no obligation to provide this data outside of normal financial reporting. Mgt has been very clear on conference calls that they will be keeping competitive info very quiet.
    25 Mar 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • I believe the free scripts were 30-day presxriptions?
    25 Mar 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Trolin, if they were 30-days, then why aren't our script numbers at 4-5k like Steve said? That should have happened already. I tend to think we'll have a clearer picture by May.
    25 Mar 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Stephen, I think a lot of people (including myself, originally) thought the freebies would be given out quickly and that we'd subsequently see a large pop in prescriptions 4 weeks later. In reality, I'm now fairly sure that the free samples have been handed out over a much longer time period (some docs used them right away, others waited until they had a chance to read up on it, others waited until the right patients came in, others didn't check their mail, et cetera). I wouldn't be surprised if there are still some unused... who knows. At any rate, it would mean would be a broader, flatter effect on script numbers. We'll see how it all shakes out in Q2.
    26 Mar 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • I just dont get why a certain poster asks the most basis (if not stupid) questions on YMB & S/T then comes here for the sole reason of challenging S.R.
    Handal, PLEASE give it a rest!
    25 Mar 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, he post misinformation to stocktwits and then when someone answers him with facts he says he must be mistaken off line so the board can't see him. He is not as cleaver as he think he is.
    25 Mar 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » stephenhandal -
    the stock price would lead me (and anyone with any sort of IQ) to believe that AMRN has not been a wise investment over the past few months. i dont follow any of the stock boards. i dont have the time nor are they reliable at all. it would make sense to me that you are on them though, my original case in point.


    and unpaid prescriptions are not counted in IMS, period. a good 2-3 months is needed to see re-newels.
    25 Mar 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • I think I could add this; the type of correction this drug should make to trygliceride levels needs to be checked with a blood test. Insurance companies don't cover blood work such as this monthly, I know because I tried. Every three to four is the norm. Plus, the type of changes in focus do not happen quickly, this isn't a pain pill! That being said, a 90 day scrip is the shortest duration that could be useful, if even then.
    25 Mar 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • I hope that Steve Rosenman doesn't represent AMRN and is only expressing his views. In case, Steve represents AMRNs view then i would be worried !
    26 Mar 2013, 03:31 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I don't understand your comment.
    26 Mar 2013, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • I am an investor in AMRN and also have been taking Vascepa for the last two months. I am refilling the 30 day prescription tomorrow for the second time. Amrn's coupon discount program takes $75.00 off the prescription price for up to 12 refills. My cost at Sams Wholesale Pharmacy is $119.00. My experience with the drug has been positive with no side effects. I have spread the word to my friends who are taking over the counter fish oil pills to switch to Vascepa.
    26 Mar 2013, 05:10 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » nice last name
    26 Mar 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Steve nice last name back to you.


    Anyone who does not have insurance or a very high deductible are still eligible for the maximum $75.00 discount offered under AMRN coupon program good for 12 refills. We should start seeing more people who are buying OTC fish oil pills have their doctor write a prescription for Vascepa like I did.
    27 Mar 2013, 01:31 AM Reply Like
  • Steve, the situation is already unclear and I don't think it is of the best interest of the co to keep these numbers away from the market. Yes they have no legal obligation but still they have a moral obligation to come clear with the people that trusted them with their money
    26 Mar 2013, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • I agree they have a moral obligation to represent the best interests of the people who purchased the stock. That interest is best represented by protecting their corporate strategies, tactics and/or information... this is independent of the stock price. If AMRN was trading at $30+ you would not want them divulging their corporate info so that competitors could take advantage of it, would you?
    29 Mar 2013, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • Steve,


    Wasn't that part of the promotion you are referring to (1000 docs given 5 free bottles each) given pre launch, or at launch, which now is roughly 7 weeks ago? I would have expected that we would have already seen some of those trickle into as paid scripts by now.
    26 Mar 2013, 06:42 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » No, you can sign up on Vascepa's website for $0 first subscription and than $25 co-pays...with promo card. This doesn't make it to IMS. It's a fact everyone, promotional or non-paid for scripts are no in there. The actual users of Vascepa is likely 3-4X what you are seeing in IMS. I'd say the same for any drug in AMRNs case.
    26 Mar 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • re IMS script count: Too bad this is a fact that has been conviently left out of so many articles. Thank you Steve for reminding us how the script count really works because it is not something we would ordinarily know.
    26 Mar 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Lots of capitulation today, hopefully followed by rising trend. Nobody likes the current situation, obviously.
    26 Mar 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » and I will keep deleting garbage from people like AF and handal. Your comments are worthless and will be treated as such,
    26 Mar 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • If someone gets a 90 day scripts I believe they still have to visit pharma to pick up the monthly for 3 months. How are you understanding this?


    When I get a 6 month prescription If I want to pick up 6 months worth its 6 prescriptions with 6 copays. They will not allow me to pickup more than 30 days dose under 1 deductible.
    26 Mar 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • If you have express scripts, by mail are 90 days, one copay. 90 day script at the pharmacy, 3 visits, 3 co-pays. And remember, Wal-Mart has $4, 30 day scripts and $10, 90 day scripts. Do a Google search for "walmart formulary" (vascepa isn't on it but other scripts you might have could be).
    28 Mar 2013, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I cant comment on that, not expert on health insurance companies/ their individual processes.
    26 Mar 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • I think Steve is essentially correct. Reading Leerink's note today is comforting on a brutal day like today. The analyst mentions that FDA acceptance of the sNDA in mixed dyslipidemia in late April/early May will be an important catalyst for AMRN removing uncertainty on the street that the FDA will require outcomes data for the 10 fold larger indication. This has always been about Anchor. Leerink also believes the consensus revenue of $96 million is achievable...only requires 10% average WoW growth from here.
    26 Mar 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • I actually have to tip my cap to the shorts. They had a game plan, and executed it very well.
    Late last week the shorts piled in. That alone alarmed me. It showed something was up.
    AMRN getting on the lightning round Friday should have been the tip off.
    The shorts took the script numbers, and twisted them to a negative point of view. They used the fact of a slowing percentage of growth as an indication that the launch was going poorly. A mathematical fact is that as the base gets bigger, the percentage of growth will slow. That does not indicate poor sales, it is just a natural mathematical occurrence.
    The sales grew. That is a fact. The numbers released each week are not precise. But they do show growth.
    Now here is where the shorts executed the plan. They put out articles to grab the headlines. People read the headlines about how the launch is going badly. They do not read the meat and potatoes about how it is a growth percentage decrease that they are using to base the article on. The shorts use confusion, and the divide and conquer strategy.
    The shorts grab hold of the stock, and start to manipulate it down. Remember, they bought in big last week. They do all they can to use propaganda to divide the longs and to get them fighting among themselves. Stockholders get frustrated, and start to sell. That causes further price reduction. From there it cascades.
    The basic facts of the company have not changed. All that has happened was a well executed short attack on a small bio stock.
    As of today, the short position has wound back down. If the longs can get a grip, the price should start to rise.
    It is amazing to watch how quickly, and effectively, an attack by the shorts can work. If you are a long, the best thing to do is buy more at the end of this attack. It is sad, and also frightening, that shareholders can still be manipulated by propaganda and fear. Making money in today's market means you have to recognize what is happening, and why. The long term for AMRN is still bright.
    27 Mar 2013, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • I hope you are correct.... I recognized right away their percentage decrease. Eventually the numbers must come down. As long as there is positive growth, I think we are doing well. My only concern is we were never given numbers to expect or compare to. My mistake for not researching but IMS and other sources are supposedly not accurate - so what do I research? I guess my point is I have to rely on company guidance and we have not received anything. Nor does it look like we will receive anything. Its been a long time since we were looking at three distinct possible paths for AMRN to travel. There is only one now, and there apparently is no map.
    27 Mar 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Danbury, agree, shorts and funds made money here....lots, but that is the name of the game. Congrats to them. It is a risky life though, especially in biotech for them.


    As far as getting into financial plays, stock trading: I try not to pay too much attention to the swings. I'm not a 'trader', I buy companies with good fundamentals and solid potential and hold until they reach my target points. For me those, points are not financial, they are catalyst related. For AMRN, my strategy is Anchor. Could I and should I hold through Reduce-It, yes it will earn me more in the long run if results are good, but my target has been Anchor. (besides, my assertion is AMRN wont be around much longer to worry about these things)
    27 Mar 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • I don't think you understand, I don't have an issue with your previous predictions and such, but more with your arrogance/ego. You act like your current view has been your main view for Amarin for a long time. It hasn't. Furthermore, you feel that you have the right to censor comments and delete them. Then you act like you're the true and almighty God on Amarin. Come to terms. You think I'm an enemy. I'm not. I am also long with a very substantial position.
    27 Mar 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Steve, this should be scary for you, but we think alike, lol. I still maintain the business plan changed last November. The buy out was delayed for ANCHOR.
    Shareholders can argue about whether this was in their best interest. My own opinion is I can wait longer for a higher payout. If a shareholder is upset that a price in the low twenties should have been accepted, I have no problem with how they feel. Everyone invests for different reasons.
    However, my motto has always been 34 and out the door. I can wait for that price to occur. It will. The price offered late last year is not going to decrease, only increase. Events have to happen, and they will take some time.
    Look at it this way. Say you are selling a home. But you are also planning on building an addition. A buyer offers a price on the house as it sits right now. You don't want that price, because you know it will be worth more after the addition. Would you sell now, knowing it will be worth more after the upgrade ? No. Is that house going to be worth less after you expand ? No. Your property is just becoming more valuable , and existing offers are not going to decrease. The smart play would be to hold onto your property, expand it, and then see how much more someone is willing to pay for it. You will not, I repeat will not, lose money doing this. Your are taking a well thought out gamble on increased value and final payout.
    In the meantime, the shorts get to play, and mostly can do it safely. I refuse, however, to take their rhetoric as anything close to the truth. Much of what is being spewed out is really nothing more than a well coordinated propaganda play. People in marketing should take notes, this campaign is working beautifully.
    I believe our 16th president said it best. " You can fool all the people some of the time , and some of the people all the time, but cannot fool all the people all the time. "
    27 Mar 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » There is no question the buyout has been delayed for Anchor - I would do the same thing. You want to take $15 for a $1.5B market, or $28+ for a 10 bagger? We all know the end game, even the shorts.
    28 Mar 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Steve if the anchor market is 10 times the size of the marine market and the marine market is $1.5 billion (worth $15 a share in a buyout) why are you thinking $28-$32 a share if bought out after anchor approved. Wouldnt it be fair to say that the buyout number would/should be much higher. Just curious to hear your thoughts on that? Thanks.
    28 Mar 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » not that simple - you got to spend money to get that huge population in, so it effects P&L first 2 years, but your thinking is right...yes, we could go higher than that on BO or meaningful strategic plan.
    28 Mar 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • Great thanks
    28 Mar 2013, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • Amrn just got Notice of Allowance for 13/417,899 patent for combination w/ Lipitor
    27 Mar 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Steve, thanks for the continued write-ups and insight.


    Do you (or anyone else here) have a solid list of pharmacies that do NOT report prescription data?


    We know that CVS, Walmart, Costco, and Target do not report data. That's 3 of the top 6 pharmacies nationwide, and 4 of the top 12 (as of Wikipedia's 2010 ranking). Does Walgreens report? If not, that means the top 3 pharmacies in the country are leaving a huge gap in the data set.


    Would be interesting to know. Thanks in advance.
    16 Apr 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Walgreens does not report to IMS - out of the top 5 pharmacies by sales, only Rite Aid reports. The top five dispensing pharmacies— CVS Caremark, Walgreens, Express Scripts, Rite Aid, and Walmart — accounted for about 63% of U.S. prescription dispensing revenues in 2012.

    17 Apr 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » You can estimate 40-60% are covered by syndicated data.
    17 Apr 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
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