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Steve Rosenman
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Mr. Rosenman has nearly 15-years executive experience in the health and wellness sectors, including weight loss, cosmetics skincare and nutrition, both Rx and OTC. Expertise areas include strategic market and product planning and corporate development (evaluation, recommendation and execution of... More
  • Amarin Set To Go After Expanded TG Market In Q4 2013! 58 comments
    Apr 23, 2013 2:08 PM | about stocks: AMRN

    With FDA lifting the risk of outcomes study required for Anchor indication approval and locking in a target date early December 2013, I believe this sets the stage for strategic discussions to intensify as Amarin seeks to maximize shareholder value for Anchor indication and beyond. While NCE may still be an overhang, far greater of an overhang once AMRN launched Vascepa on its own was the risk that FDA would make AMRN wait to market Vascepa for the expanded Anchor indication with outcome results required. That is not the case and now any interested suitor would assume they can market against Anchor beginning end of the year. I would not want to be caught short within the next few months. More with a complete article that covers the following to come:

    -sNDA approval and what it means for strategic options

    -NCE/NME for dummies

    -Vascepa scripts and what impact they have on company value

    -Update on company staff and approach to investor communication

    Stocks: AMRN
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Comments (56)
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  • oleon122369
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Steve thank you for all of your hard work and DD on AMRN. I just have to vent for a moment. I have held this stock for nearly 2 years and have nothing to show for it. No matter how good the news is this stock just sinks. I mean for God's sake we just got our snda approved today and we are down. WTF it makes no sense!!!!!!!! All the shorts that post stupid stuff and all the purposely misleading articles are actually working. They have zero creditability and zero science behind what they say and write but yet here we are sitting under $7 bucks. I don't know about you guys but I feel pretty stupid right about now. I hope to God that 2013 turns out to be a good year for it has been a horrible financial mess for long term AMRN investors. I am still long but disgusted!!!!!!
    23 Apr 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • golfstud
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    Steve can you see a scenario that bp buys amarin for lets say $28 a share, taking into account that anchor is approved in December, with provisions that if certain milestones are received (reduce it approved, sales numbers hit or exceed expectation etc) that further dollars per share are paid in the future. If this would be the case I could see a total return of well over $40 3 to 5 years from now...
    23 Apr 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I understand the frustration, I have some too. If we hit $14 my realtor is on speed dial, get it.

     

    But I try not to talk about specifics of the daily trade b/c I don't write these articles as a trader, I don't "trade" (in and out of stocks), I write them as someone following the company and broader story and have been doing so for nearly 4 years now.

     

    I bought originally around $3.60 if I remember correctly and sold 2/3 of holdings at $16.00-$16.50 after Anchor trials reported. That obviously was a good move. I let the excitement settle and bought back in averaged around $9.30 now with nearly 3x my original amount of holdings. I don't play options on AMRN, if I had done so, I'd probably be sitting on a remote island somewhere as that certainly was lucrative for a while as we had lots of ups and downs.

     

    Now that that is out of the way, I pay attention to the fundamentals, and they have only been stronger as we go with this company. can I explain the stock weakness? No. Can I make assumptions? I can, but they're not great ones and won't help the individual investor really. I believe its funds controlling the stock for now, in and out until they are ready to really get in for the next run up.

     

    So if you believe the fundamentals are there (good data, IP position, FDA approvals in line, mg't is proven and looking for best price for shareholders and themselves), and believe that Anchor is the reason for investing in AMRN as I do, you would conclude that 2013 will have explosive stock price movement.
    23 Apr 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • oleon122369
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Thank you Steve for a level headed response. I am just so frustrated and needed to vent. Hopefully our patience will be rewarded before 2013 is over. Be well and God Bless!!!!
    23 Apr 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • david22hughes
    , contributor
    Comments (240) | Send Message
     
    The fundamentals is all anyone need concern themselves with regarding Amarin and their future. Since the acceptance for filing of amr101 for the Marine NDA on November 25th, 2011, when the stock as trading at $6.65, those fundamentals have gotten substantially better. 17 months later upon acceptance of the sNDA the stock closes at what price? $6.65. You have to laugh. The shorts have had a tight stranglehold on Amarin but it's starting to weaken as the articles from the likes of Fartstein and that Quoth the Raven clown get increasingly more pathetic as the months role by.

     

    Have a read of this:

     

    http://bit.ly/Y31j3p

     

    The comments section is brilliant and will tell you all you need to know about the amount of personal integrity the like of Fartstein is operating with. He's not an idiot as I previously suspected, he know's damn well what he is doing. What he is is a morally corrupt low life with zero integrity.
    24 Apr 2013, 02:25 AM Reply Like
  • david22hughes
    , contributor
    Comments (240) | Send Message
     
    People like Steve offer invaluable commentary on stocks like Amarin because he has no agenda unlike the short sellers. He is long based on the highly attractive fundamentals staring him in the face because he has done his homework. He acknowledges informed critique and intellegent bearish arguments (unlike the likes of Fartstein, Quoth the Ass Monkey etc) but the fact remains that the bullish arguments far outweigh any bearish one at this stage. Shorts are fast running out of ammunition now and the combo data by the end of June and/or NCE determination will be the beginning of the end of the short stranglehold.
    24 Apr 2013, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • ringbellplease
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    If I understand you correctly, you will sell at $14!
    23 Apr 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I never said that. If it hits $14 we are going in the right direction. Wont sell for less than $19-21, but that's my own situation. FIrst round before Anchor my target was $11 and ended up holding until $16. All depends. I try to keep this separate of my research and analysis on the company.
    23 Apr 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • bakemann
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    steve, thx for all of your dd and articles, pleeeeese don't let A.F. get away with spreading manure around it stinks, looking forward to your next article, I firmly believe we hit a new pre approval high this year although i am deeply concerned over the up coming earnings report
    23 Apr 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • stephenhandal
    , contributor
    Comments (185) | Send Message
     
    At this point, all we can really do is speculate. Joe Zakrewski and CO have been very quiet and it seems that they will continue to be. Hopefully, we'll hear some news about ANCHOR and what their strategy is on the conference calls, but previously, that has not been the case. Getting the 3 paths scenario again is not good. Obviously, Amarin should leave all paths open for leverage, but they have to be more straightforward with shareholders/investors.

     

    In my view, Amarin management being quiet allows all this speculation to go on by various media outlets and people, which ultimately does not benefit the stock at all. It allows for the spread of misinformation, which furthermore does not benefit investors.
    23 Apr 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • skelly1275
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I don't like the parlor games either. More communication is important. Otherwise the naysayers and professional lemon squeezers get a stranglehold on weaker players and frustrate the stronger ones.
    26 Apr 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If they are talking to other companies, they cannot say anything due to confidentiality. if they aren't talking to other companies, they also cant say anything because those companies are potential competitors. my experience has always proven that 'quiet companies' are the ones to watch for something real - the blowhards with PR and hype (NEPT for example) are smoke and mirrors.
    23 Apr 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Jerryg
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Interesting you have not discussed Amarin's current plea to raise the debt limit. Has it ever occurred to you that this company does not have the cash to market this drug nor does it have any suitors in the wings to bail it out?
    24 Apr 2013, 02:39 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Amarin is not asking for anymore money and you know that - they have a structured debt instrument that does not dilute current investors. You can read any of their regulatory and financial filings to see this. The reason they did the creative investment is because they have no plans of marketing Anchor on their own and they (mgt) have been very verbal to this. Anchor will either be partnered (unlikely) or AMRN will be acquired. By the way, the collateral on the borrowed money is AMRN's IP...should tell you how strong it is.
    24 Apr 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Steve - any reason why we couldn't do some modeling with the current information, i.e weekly script growth at say a modest 7.5% growth throughout the rest of the year and then schedule that to show a top line revenue number at years end. I realize we don't have the information for bottom line figures but for top line we could host a variety of assumptions in spreadsheet form. Just an idea for an article.
    Best wishes and thanks again for your contributions
    24 Apr 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • chunk713
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Steve
    Thanks for your continued comments. They are much appreciated.
    Now that the FDA has accepted the Anchor filing, do you think any buyout will occur before the December acceptance date or after? I would think any BP would want to buy before so they can make their own plans to go to market with their people. What do you think?
    Thanks again.
    24 Apr 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh....looks like someone did just that. From the IHUB board
    http://bit.ly/15HjkGU
    24 Apr 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, my theory has always maintained BO before going to market. I was wrong the first time, hopefully not the second ;-)
    24 Apr 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • chunk713
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the reply Steve!
    24 Apr 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Not_Quite_Pheidippides
    , contributor
    Comments (341) | Send Message
     
    Hey Pirate -- yes, that spreadsheet is out there and it's pretty interesting (fun to play with), but it isn't a crystal ball. So far the trajectory is remarkably smooth, but we'll never be able to agree on growth for at least one reason. At some point, growth must slow (even 1% growth would, at some point, result in more prescriptions than people on Earth). The big, big question is when that growth plateaus, and that depends on your read of the medicine and the market. Will it start to level off at 3,000 or 30,000 or 300,000 scripts per week??... that's the big question, to my mind.

     

    No one can dispute that, in a spreadsheet, the scripts will grow to large numbers if you assume a 7.5% growth rate. It's how long that growth rate continues for that really matters.
    24 Apr 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Not Quite - No argument here. However given the nature of marketing and that "word of mouth" usually trumps other efforts, I see growth in the rate ( of scripts) coming soon. Preceeding this though there will have to be good results in practice that support what everyone has seen in the clinical data. Drs. who see good results will likely spread the word amongst their peers and the same goes for patients. Likely this will take at least one or more script cycles. I have been on Vascepa going on 3 months. I do blood work Tuesday of next week and look forward to seeing what it might have done for me in addition to the statin I take. My Dr., who prior to my mention of Vascepa, had never heard of it. Favorable results will force him to do his own DD. That kind of marketing is priceless. So yes, scripts will flatten out but IMO it won't be soon. AND yes the script rate of increase will be variable as will the number of scripts it is applied to so playing with numbers in excel can only do so much. Someone with knowledge in drug launches and drug lifecycle dynamics might be able to refine the DD process. Better minds than mine, for sure lol
    24 Apr 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • onecardchuck
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Here is a nice article I found here on seeking alpha that supports a lot of what Steve says and is a great read.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Hope this helps,
    24 Apr 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • chunk713
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Excellent article and a great read. Think this crushes the shorts arguments!
    24 Apr 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • johnnybio
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Only one sentence into the article, and already the typical bs from this guy

     

    "With FDA lifting the risk of outcomes study required for Anchor indication approval and locking in a target date early December 2013"

     

    Can you please explain how December 20th is "early December"

     

    More to come...
    24 Apr 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Read you moron...Dec 2013- not Dec 20
    24 Apr 2013, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • Jerryg
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Steve, I never said Amarin is asking for more money. What I did mention is that you have never addressed "Amarin's plea to raise the debt limit". As you would say, "you know that".

     

    I will not convolute your blog with Item 7 from the Proxy statement for the shareholders' meeting, but it specifically requests shareholders to allow for the debt ceiling to be raised. The company is burning through cash like there is no tomorrow. They are launching a drug, funding trials and paying large bonuses to officers.

     

    At approximately the time when this Proxy was released is when the stock price began to continuously slip. The market does not like it and the shorts are taking full advantage of it. We are currently at a new 52 week low at approx. $6.34!! (Down another 30 cents.)

     

    Given the current revenue stream (or lack of it), the company needs to figure things out quickly or there will not be much need to figure things out down the road.

     

    I can appreciate the hard work you have performed trying to educate people on AMRN's "possible" value but maybe it is time to step back and acknowledge that market forces are dictating what happens with this company and that maybe, just maybe, shareholders will be lucky to ever see the $8's or $9's again, let alone $25+. (I just wonder if some news has leaked from the FDA regarding NCE.)

     

    To me, the need to borrow more funds is not a good sign. Are they planning to launch Anchor on their own? If not, they cannot surely expect to get $20+ a share in a buyout when their stock is at a 52 week low. Something has to give!!

     

    By the way, thank you for allowing my previous post to go through.
    24 Apr 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You can have your opinion...
    24 Apr 2013, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • homebuilder_watcher
    , contributor
    Comments (113) | Send Message
     
    jerryg. As someone who has worked in the m & a area at large public companies for over 20 years, your logic is flawed on buyout price. An acquiring company, when evaluating a target, values the company based on a variety of metrics including cash flow, etc. What the stock price is at the money is fairly irrelevant. If I am a large company looking to make a bid for AMRN, I will value the company, much like the analysts that cover ANRN have done. Doesn't matter what the stock price is because management will recommend to shareholders to vote against a big of $8 or $10 or $12 because the BOD will have to get a fairness opinion if a buyout offer comes and that fairness opinion is likely to line up with what analysts have valued the company at
    24 Apr 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • stephenhandal
    , contributor
    Comments (185) | Send Message
     
    @homebuilder_watcher

     

    But for example if a company values Amarin on its revenue/sales, we don't even really have any (at least right now) - maybe a few million, if that... So that's out of the question. If we even want to consider that, I'd think we'd have to wait a few more quarters to see a trend. Anyway, how would BP value us in your opinion?
    25 Apr 2013, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • david22hughes
    , contributor
    Comments (240) | Send Message
     
    As a company that has a drug capable of being the number one selling pharmaceutical drug on the planet (not an exageration) within a few years but who has no chance of making it happen on it's own. JZ sees it the same way.
    25 Apr 2013, 06:03 AM Reply Like
  • Not_Quite_Pheidippides
    , contributor
    Comments (341) | Send Message
     
    Stephen -- I believe that is exactly why, in one argument, BP hasn't done anything yet. Little or no data on revenue & sales = no easy valuation method = no buyout. This isn't my argument, but if believe in the stodgy, conservative nature of big companies with aggrieved shareholders, it makes sense.
    25 Apr 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No, big pharma could really care less about marine, so its not about sales at all at this stage. its about what is the right time and price for Anchor. Its why JZ is holding out, as he should.
    25 Apr 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • stephenhandal
    , contributor
    Comments (185) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't necessarily say that. I think sales are an integral part right now. Obviously sales aren't all of it, but BP wants to see if Vascepa sells well, which right now, it isn't. I'll give it more time, but it's been 3 months, so things better start picking up. More important than sales is market penetration, which can be to some degree demonstrated by scripts, so those need to start growing as well as how the efficiency/efficacy of Vascepa is, which based on clinical trial results is good. Additionally, we need more Tier 2 coverage to set us up for ANCHOR. Wall Street has not placed any emphasis yet on other supposed 'catalysts.' Although Amarin may be a bit different, large pharmaceutical companies usually value COs at least from what I've seen based on a combination of current revenue, potential revenue, and other things in the future, as well as their pipeline and such. Amarin's pipeline is limited to one drug - Vascepa - so there's a downside there, but it should do well. I do have to admit that the 'side-effect' profile is excellent for Amarin, which should greatly benefit it.

     

    Plus, I highly doubt BP will pay a 300-400% premium for a company. I was reading somewhere that Soriot (CEO of AstraZeneca) was concerned about his credit rating so he didn't want to do any 'large' deals or acquisitions that entailed an outrageous premium, which would upset shareholders as well as other investors. We'll see.

     

    Summing it up, I do agree that ANCHOR is the bigger and better thing, but at this point for the next few months, Marine still does matter. Amarin needs revenue and sales. They can't be sitting around and doing nothing.
    25 Apr 2013, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'll reiterate, for the BO to happen, sales could go to zero on Marine indication and it doesn't matter. If you believe sales on Marine and the efforts directly by Amarin are part of the equation, you need to re-think what's going on here. The reason AMRN went alone was to buy time and get to Anchor for a higher asset $, not b/c they wanted to market it themselves and show big pharma how to do it. If you are reading into this that AMRN was given an offer before Marine launched and the offer was not acceptable, your read would be right.
    26 Apr 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • stephenhandal
    , contributor
    Comments (185) | Send Message
     
    I agree with you regarding Amarin going alone to buy time and such. I'm just stating that if Joe Zakrewsi wants his 'price'/what he thinks the CO is worth then at least I think, he'll have to get his share price back much higher for a buyout than the levels we are currently at, otherwise it would look like a partnership would be more viable, which I thought was one of the more unpopular options...

     

    Amarin is currently at $6.80. A $25 BO price from these levels would mean a 267% premium. A $30 BO price would mean a 341% premium. It's not happening, especially at these levels. It's possible, but will take some time. So obviously, that's why I think we'll have to wait till EOY and even possibly early 2014 till our share price climbs back up and till we have more things under our belt/more clarity re: NCE, ANCHOR approval, sales guidance, combo study data as well as clarity from management. We'll see.
    26 Apr 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Do I agree with you that a $25+ BO is not happening at the $6-7 level, yes. Do I think AMRN will stay in this range much longer, no.

     

    I have been suggesting that major funds are in control of share price destiny and if people believe with all the strong fundamentals that AMRN has that these funds are not just timing their plays, then don't say I didn't warn you. Quoth the raven, for example is going to get hurt very badly, I suspect. AMRN can and will adjust upward when these players are ready to ride it back through Anchor. They don't have much time...FDA approval is approx. 8 months, you would need to be at the table strategically NOW to a few months down the road to be a player for Anchor.
    26 Apr 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • bravo33
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
     
    Steve, the only thing I see going on with BPs that leads me to a more "accelerated" scenario is that many of their product lines are hurting. The well documented cliffs that several are hanging on are eroding quickly. In some cases it's led to downgrades - both of PTs and credit ratings. Some BPs are launching into long range relationships that don't deliver saleable product for 3-4 years, if they pass qualification hurdles. They all need revenue streams that they can control and count on for years. We tend to look at things Amarin-centric because we're investors - but there's a world of pain going on in boardrooms across the industry. In my opinion suitors wait for NCE and combo clarity, but I see this coming sooner than 4th Quarter. So much for my crystal ball!

     

    Thanks for your regular input & updates.
    26 Apr 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » an excellent point
    26 Apr 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • coopman98
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    i agree no way this will be at this level much longer. large block trades started today and lots of catalysts = make to low teens and then BO sooner than you think Mr. Handal.
    26 Apr 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » While QTR added to his short position, I'm feeling pretty good about my add around 1.5 weeks ago.
    26 Apr 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • stephenhandal
    , contributor
    Comments (185) | Send Message
     
    Coopman: I'd be more than happy to be wrong. I'd like a BO sooner, but I've become more conservative on my analysis regarding Amarin.
    26 Apr 2013, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • hakujin
    , contributor
    Comments (139) | Send Message
     
    I guess you've never heard of 'Big Carl I.' or hostile takeover in general. .
    15 May 2013, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • stephenhandal
    , contributor
    Comments (185) | Send Message
     
    How can you infer that I've never heard of Carl Ichan or a hostile takeover? It will NOT happen because of the shareholder voting rights as a result of Amarin being an Ireland-based company in terms of headquarters. Too many restrictions in place.
    15 May 2013, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • yourmama6799
    , contributor
    Comments (488) | Send Message
     
    Homebuilder,
    Most analysts have a price on this at 13.00 or 8.00 or a little higher so I think 12.00 is more than enough volume.
    25 Apr 2013, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » actually, average is high teens.
    25 Apr 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Jerryg
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Home_Builder, I understand what you are saying and agree with the logic but it doesn't always happen according to "scripture". On top of that, what cash flow does AMRN have at the given moment? What metrics, as you put it, does AMRN have that will entice a company to plunk down a $25 bid. AMRN has drug that is supposed to sell billions but is having a hard time gaining traction with scripts!

     

    All a company has to do is wait for AMRN to sink to say, $4.50 or $5 and then offer $12-$15 in a hostile bid and I guarantee you they would have quite a few shares tendered their way. HGSI went to GSK via this same scenario. HGSI actually had Goldman Sachs, I believe it was GS, work up a 'fair value" that came in around $19-$21. So GSK upped their bid to from $13 to $14.25 being the generous Brits that they were.

     

    Similar to Steve's example mentioned earlier, I bought when the price was less than a $1, sold a bunch in the high 20's/low 30's and then watched the remaining bunch slip back to $7. Lesson learned. What sucked is that it later came out that AMGN had, at one time, offered $35 a share for HGSI and management turned it down.

     

    Same thing is happening here with AMRN. The price is being pushed down and pushed down and pushed down. You cannot convince me that management did not have a reasonable bid in front of them.

     

    I hear what you and Steve are saying but the price of AMRN is heading in the opposite direction. This is not a stock that is acting like a buyout candidate anytime soon. Two more months of .10 cent losses each day and the stock will be at zero.
    25 Apr 2013, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • TommyLM
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Vascepa rep in my office today. Sales are getting brisk. MD acceptance higher as the word gets out. GSK reps badmouthing.
    IMO the "market forces" wont dictate what happens to this company because in the end good medicine wins and the prescriptions will be what counts. I have to chuckle at some of the handwringing over market forces. If you know anything about cardiac risk, this drug will have a strong presence in the future, even without statins. Look at all the Type 2 diabetics who have an extremely high rate of hypertriglyceridemia. The potential for treatment is huge in that population alone.
    25 Apr 2013, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • yourmama6799
    , contributor
    Comments (488) | Send Message
     
    Time matters so time will tell.
    25 Apr 2013, 03:09 AM Reply Like
  • gtgtbangbang
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    johny; thanks for that piercing investigation in the critical matter of whether December late or early was in play. Of course I don't mean that ... is downside ammo so precious that a week or so at the end of the year constitutes your bear thesis ?

     

    I think a fine guess would be an early decision on Anchor; if only it wasn't the FDA we were talking about. After all, Vascepa is already approved with a similar label, supply / manufacturing chain already inspected & approved, and the slam-shut P value SPA studies tied to the unusual carrot / stick agreement for Reduce-it progress have been completed with a smiley face and a star.

     

    Not much left for FDA except to look for typos in the paperwork. In most industries, that would be a good play for early response; you know, like the EARLY sNDA ACCEPTANCE that was just doled out.
    25 Apr 2013, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lets just stop pretending that any "premium" buyout would materialize because of the monthly scripts and sales revenue generated by Marine indication and end the debate on how we get to the lofty BO numbers now by reading this:

     

    AMRN reports positive Reduce-It interim results = +$3-5
    AMRN receives FDA approval for Anchor = +$5-8
    Premium on buyout based on future Anchor earnings +$$$...

     

    That's regardless of sales progress on Marine which could also help turn the short term tide, and any NCE progress that would add an additional $3-5.

     

    It will go up twice as quickly as it went down, just as it has the last 3 legs up.
    25 Apr 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • stephenhandal
    , contributor
    Comments (185) | Send Message
     
    See, the issue I have is what do we base future ANCHOR earnings off of if that's going to ultimately be important for BP? My point is that's why I keep on emphasizing that we need to see sales from the Marine indication over the next 6 months. Although, the Marine indication is only for people with TGs >500 mg/dL, I personally think it will show to a certain degree how well Vascepa is accepted by doctors as well as patients. I know you can make the argument that Amarin only has 275 sales reps, but please, that's more than enough to get this drug off the ground. Prescriptions need to grow at a faster pace than what they currently have been at least in this growth phase. I understand that it takes time for patients to transition from Lovaza to Vascepa and for word to get around, but, for example, we should start to see those 5k (?) samples of Vascepa kicking into the script count, which I haven't

     

    I'm not sure what you mean by the "positive Reduce-It interim results"? Maybe, you're talking about the dose combo study data? Anyway, the combo study data is due by the 1st half of 2013. So, we should have it by June at the latest.

     

    Although Amarin has an excellent drug, Vascepa, it needs to SELL, SELL, SELL and SELL. We can talk all about it's potential, but most importantly we need sales. Again, I understand that ANCHOR is the more important patient population, but since Vascepa is a better drug, it shouldn't have trouble selling in the Marine patient population.. We'll see how things pan out.

     

    In terms of the current price action, all I can say is that I personally think we're being controlled by shorts and HFs and will continue to be for sometime until we reach the breaking point, which I ultimately don't now when that will be. It's going to take either a major catalyst or something to get Amarin back on the uptrend. Technically, the chart is not looking hot at all.
    25 Apr 2013, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Jerryg
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Has AMRN provided any kind of estimated date for when the interim results for the Reduce-It trials might be released?
    25 Apr 2013, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Will certainly be topic on call, but I believe sometime in Q2 was stated in the past.
    25 Apr 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Jerryg
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for the follow-up. It is appreciated.
    25 Apr 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • mowadeeb1
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Steve, I have heard no mention of Reduce - it interim results to be released in this quarter. I think you are confusing this with the statin combo results which the company stated would be released before middle of the year. This is very early data and will probably not have much of an effect on share price.
    25 Apr 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'll have to check, you may be right.
    25 Apr 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • seb90266
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Hi Steve, I never posted but I read your articles and respect your DD. I just saw a rumor out there that the FDA posted a new MAPP and apparently "it is helping" AMRN NCE status, do you know anything about that? Thank you
    27 Apr 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » read my other blog
    27 Apr 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
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