5/8/2013, 11:35pm updated
Changing my 2013 view for Amarin price target from $28-32 to $34 by May 2014 as company is well positioned to achieve NCE from FDA, be given Anchor indication approval on or before December 20, 2013; latest intel suggests the company is in very late stage discussions with potential strategic partners/suitors on how to proceed with launching Anchor.
Additionally, Marine launch seems to be going as forecasted. I do not believe we have a VVUS situation here and management likely to confirm slow, but steady and positive trend on 5/9 investor conference call. There could be slight, non-material upside or downside to the expected revenues generated over the past 3 months from Marine, but the launch seems to be trending as any new small pharma company launch would-- slow to start, with increasing scripts.
I believe FDA has given important clues over the past 2 months of how NCE will be treated, the company may know "when". A possible update on the conference call, but more likely this front will remain quiet, in the best interest of AMRN-FDA dealings.
Risk from other future Omega-3 class drugs (OMTH, NEPT), very mitigated as the aforementioned companies currently do not have FDA approval and their lead drug candidates either have poor therapeutic profiles compared to Vascepa or are highly unlikely to succeed through late stage development and be commercialized as Rx.
Recent chatter/media about poorly constructed Italian OTC class Omega-3 study completely irrelevant to Vascepa and Rx class Omega-3, which perform off different chemical entities, concentrations and dosages. I refer to Anchor (dose dependent at 4g) and Jelis as material indicators for potential Vascepa Reduce-It outcomes.
Conference call likely to revolve (from management's point of view) around expected demand for Anchor and favorable supply and patent position. CC likely to revolve (from analyst and investor perspective) on strategic path for anchor launch.