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Steve Rosenman
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Mr. Rosenman has nearly 15-years executive experience in the health and wellness sectors, including weight loss, cosmetics skincare and nutrition, both Rx and OTC. Expertise areas include strategic market and product planning and corporate development (evaluation, recommendation and execution of... More
  • Price Target Update For Amarin (AMRN) 40 comments
    May 8, 2013 2:03 PM | about stocks: AMRN, NEPT, OMTH

    5/8/2013, 11:35pm updated

    Changing my 2013 view for Amarin price target from $28-32 to $34 by May 2014 as company is well positioned to achieve NCE from FDA, be given Anchor indication approval on or before December 20, 2013; latest intel suggests the company is in very late stage discussions with potential strategic partners/suitors on how to proceed with launching Anchor.

    Additionally, Marine launch seems to be going as forecasted. I do not believe we have a VVUS situation here and management likely to confirm slow, but steady and positive trend on 5/9 investor conference call. There could be slight, non-material upside or downside to the expected revenues generated over the past 3 months from Marine, but the launch seems to be trending as any new small pharma company launch would-- slow to start, with increasing scripts.

    I believe FDA has given important clues over the past 2 months of how NCE will be treated, the company may know "when". A possible update on the conference call, but more likely this front will remain quiet, in the best interest of AMRN-FDA dealings.

    Risk from other future Omega-3 class drugs (OMTH, NEPT), very mitigated as the aforementioned companies currently do not have FDA approval and their lead drug candidates either have poor therapeutic profiles compared to Vascepa or are highly unlikely to succeed through late stage development and be commercialized as Rx.

    Recent chatter/media about poorly constructed Italian OTC class Omega-3 study completely irrelevant to Vascepa and Rx class Omega-3, which perform off different chemical entities, concentrations and dosages. I refer to Anchor (dose dependent at 4g) and Jelis as material indicators for potential Vascepa Reduce-It outcomes.

    Conference call likely to revolve (from management's point of view) around expected demand for Anchor and favorable supply and patent position. CC likely to revolve (from analyst and investor perspective) on strategic path for anchor launch.

    Stocks: AMRN, NEPT, OMTH
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Comments (41)
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  • Attm
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    What's your intel?
    8 May 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I weigh views heavily on info I gather on the supply and investment banking side.
    8 May 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Attm
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Thanks.
    8 May 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (109) | Send Message
     
    I don't see a buyout happening. I think good old Joe will drag this out and formulate some kind of creative partnership deal who knows when. We have a full 7 months until PDUFA and since it won't be a "launch" per se, a deal might not be forthcoming until well past PDUFA. I'll have no problem staying in with IRA money but if there isn't significant tangible evidence of a solid commercialization plan for the ANCHOR indication in the next few months AND some positive move in the PPS.....I'm out with at least 50% of my shares. Shareholders and analysts alike are getting fatigued with all the "can't comment", parallel processing" crap. This is dead money. Time is money.
    9 May 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No prob, it's bold given where we are now, but very confident we see serious interest return to stock.
    8 May 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Ladavis23
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    So from what you are saying, I would assume that could mean a partnership of sorts? That would surprise me. JZ had always mentioned partnership as one of the 3 commercial path's, but at the same time he would always comment on the negatives of them. Kinda like the "bronze" of the three choice's.
    8 May 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I would not read it that way. 'Third parties' mean any entity outside of AMRN. You are probably referencing "third party distributors"...I'm not.
    8 May 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (109) | Send Message
     
    I'm alittle confused here Steve. Are you talking about contracting a third party/saleperson force or a legitimate partnership with big pharma? The latter I can see. The former would be devastating to the PPS. I'm praying at this point that Joe gives us a very clear indication instead of the cloak and dagger crap we have seen up until now. May 2014 is a freaking lifetime away for those of us who have been loyal for years now.
    8 May 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Not sure why people are getting confused. I'm making a case that a party other than AMRN is engaged, this could mean partnership or more likely acquisition.
    8 May 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (109) | Send Message
     
    "latest intel suggests the company is in very late stage discussions with third parties on how to proceed with launching Anchor."

     

    Referencing "how to proceed with Anchor" makes it sound as if you mean partnership. If you mean buyout then why to a 12 month target? If they are actually in "late stage" discussions, it shouldn't take until 2014 to put a deal together.
    8 May 2013, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • coopman98
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    steve, are you saying that you expect AMRN to continue to GIA through next May? you changed not only price target but time frame? are you saying you dont believe a BO until next year? thanks again for your help and guidance.
    8 May 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm not really trying to time anything, my PTs were always 12-mos, so since its a new PT, gets a new running 12 mo timeline. I anticipate activity to really be heating up between July - October.
    8 May 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • coopman98
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    thanks, any update on NCE? anchor approval by the end of fall?
    8 May 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't know why you keep asking this, I have no idea on dates...
    8 May 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • coopman98
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    thank you.
    8 May 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • coopman98
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    do you have any concerns about the continuing financials of the company. I had thought the 100 million loan was to get us through this year GIA. have you heard anything additional about reduce-it?
    8 May 2013, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • golfstud
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    Any response to the article on yahoo by Forbes writer larry husten saying another disappointing study for fish oil supplements? Your thoughts please, thanks
    8 May 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (109) | Send Message
     
    1 gram of "fish oil"...............lol. Useless study. Waste of money and time. Rehashed garbage. Timing on the release is amusing though....
    8 May 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 85% mixed omega otc?? ... nothing like Vascepa at all, I'll place my bets on Jelis. Its a crap piece with zero credibility rehashing old news of a pointless study.
    8 May 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • golfstud
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    Thanks
    8 May 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • isaeed
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    I would'nt say its a pointless study. In fact this study helps Vascepa is more ways than one. It solidifies the fact that OTCs dont work in reducing CV events and so, same priced RX Vascepa with proven results works and is a much better option. This if anything will help in the long run in the ever increasing Vascepa sales. This study has proven why Vascepa is much better option than any other available.
    9 May 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Agree with you
    9 May 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • MAS-
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    I do agree as well. This study is not relevant to vascepa.

     

    Patients that participated in this study had an initial triglyceride count of 150 mg/dl (see supplemental table S1), which is pretty much normal range.

     

    I thought the hypothesis is that high triglycerides leads to higher risk to cardiac events. Vascepa may be able to control that risk. If your levels of triacilglicerols are normal to start with, your cardiovascular comorbidities are obviosly not related to triglyceriddes but to something else.....

     

    I am missing anything?

     

    ----------------------...

     

    If what I say above is correct, I would find misleading what some of the articles today are commenting like: "While fish oil does consistently reduce triglycerides (and the effect was seen in this study as well), that reduction does not appear to lead to an actual clinical benefit."
    Yes there was a marginal reduction on triglycerides (-20 and -28 mg/dl for placebo and fish oil. see supplemental table-2). But this small reduction was on normal levels....How can anyone conclude that what is reported in this article has anything to do with treating patients with a much higher risk of cardiac events due to HIGH LEVELS OF TRIGLYCERIDES?????
    9 May 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • BillBixby
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    "Patients that participated in this study had an initial triglyceride count of 150 mg/dl (see supplemental table S1), which is pretty much normal range."

     

    150-199 mg/dl is the REDUCE-IT range, so the article is an attempt at undermining that potential, albeit a bad one considering the insufficient dosage and quality of the OTC products used in the study.
    9 May 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • MAS-
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Agree. However I fail to understand why all the negativity....have people forgotten about marine and anchor?

     

    M
    9 May 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • BiotechBillionair
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Golf
    Fish oil supplements are not Vascepa. Vascepa or Icosapent Ethyl is derived from fish oil in a process that concentrates, purifies, then alters it through a chemical process to create a prodrug.

     

    Fish oil EPA is an ester, OH-C=O; it's injested into the body some of which get absorbed into the blood stream as EPA and some of it get's digested and broken down into a smaller fatty non active FA chain. Lovaza contains purify fish oil EPA and DHA along with several other Omega acid ethyl esters.

     

    Vascepa or Icosapent ethyl is a prodrug derived from fish oil. (Lovaza is fish oil) Icosapent Ethyl has a covalently bonded ethyl group H3C-CH- bonded to the Ester group. This is not a salt, this is not an ester group (it's an Ethyl), the bond is covalent. According to the definition of a new active moiety by the FDA, it fits the bill. The Icosapent Ethyl is injested and ACTIVATED inside the body by Pancreatic Lipase, to the active form absorbed by the body. If you take 4 grams of pure 99% EPA you will not get the same blood levels of EPA if you injest the Icosapent Ethyl / Vascepa because most of the "pure EPA" will be destroyed in your stomach and upper intestines.
    Any study the say's "fish oil" doesn't relate to Vascepa at all.

     

    Vascepa is a prodrug of EPA, and a NCE.
    8 May 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • golfstud
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    another article out their today by stephen d simpson at investopedia saying the negative fish oil study will lead to amarins marketing struggle. i know you have responded above but do you feel in any way that this syudy will have an affect on things for amarin in the future? thanks
    9 May 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Guest2115
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    Steve,

     

    Thanks for a very informative article !
    8 May 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • bullscan
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    I challenge you Steve R to disclose the number of shares you are long. even with 100 shares I can call myself long and even with a million shares I can call myself long. You see why it matters to disclose the number of shares long?
    8 May 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • pwt750
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    bullscam; nice first post.

     

    Fair is fair ; whats is your sentiment, your share count (or short , or put or call strike & date ) count and & price. And what is your REAL name? May I call to verify ?
    8 May 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Why do you care? Doesn't change my sentiments or the info I provide to support my consistent thesis on AMRN. But, if it makes you sleep better at night, when AMRN heads toward the levels I believe it will, I'll be going furniture shopping if you catch my drift.
    8 May 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • bullscan
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    ok furniture shopping equals 100 shares right? so now I know you own around 100 shares. Why are you afraid to disclose the number of shares and cost basis?
    9 May 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » furniture shopping means filling a new vacation home, you figure it out.
    9 May 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • bullscan
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    I will thankyou personally if that really happens with a expensive wine ofcourse.
    14 May 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • ac011
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Steve, is your PT based on a possible acquisition between now and May next year? I'm not sure organic growth would be enough to drive the share price to $34.
    9 May 2013, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • stephenhandal
    , contributor
    Comments (187) | Send Message
     
    Steve:

     

    You make a good point about the conference call, but just let Vascepa sell itself and the FDA deal with NCE and ANCHOR. Everything will eventually fall into place. We don't need high numbers being tossed around at this point. Wall Street has us at $7 and that's that. There's no changing the current valuation until Amarin provides more clarity and finalizes some pending items as well as establishing solid revenue. $34 is a long ways away, so let time solve the puzzle and ultimately prove who is right/wrong in the end.

     

    Sure, the company may be 'inherently' worth >$30 by May 2014 after ANCHOR approval and all the other accomplishments, but does that mean Wall Street will value Amarin at that price? Absolutely not. Just let things play out and we'll see. I have no doubt that the company will be at much higher levels in 2014 than we are currently at, but let's not start making predictions when we aren't in the best position to do so, especially at the levels at which we're sitting. I would love for you to be correct in your assumptions, but at this point, it's much more complicated and the climb up will take time.

     

    Good luck to all those invested...

     

    P.S. The only way I see >$25 is with a buyout. Other than that, no way will GIA take us there, at least in my opinion.
    9 May 2013, 02:47 AM Reply Like
  • Life-Science
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    I think today's CC gives Joe and Company a chance to shine some real light on all of their accomplishments.. Steve has said it many times and I agree bc it's just a fact, that Big Pharma is not looking at AMRN bc of 2 months of scripts in the MARINE mkt. BP cares about ANCHOR...
    Also Combo-statin Data at the end of May early June are HUGE as well.. That should heat things up with stock and BP. NCE will come when it comes so that's all on that note..

     

    In the end I think shareholders would at least like to hear Joe say something like... "he feels and realizes that in his opinion the stock price has not valued in many of the major accomplishments AMRN has hit in the past few months".. Nothing wrong with letting shareholders know how you feel in that regards. Even though Joe does NOT control the stock, he controls the company shareholders like to know how you feel.

     

    I think AMRN before any B/O or partnership occurs can easily be trading between $20-$25 simply because AMRN is currently trading now at $7 (thats lower then after Marine Data in 2010).. So with the major catalysts coming (NCE, Combo data, Q2 earnings, closer to ANCHOR approval etc) plus the Milestone AMRN already hit, you have Vascepa launch on-time, Script growth getting stronger, sNDA ANCHOR early acceptance, Tier 2, 520 ANCHOR Patent, 3 other Marine Patents issued and a few others and AMRN's STOCK has NOT valued in yet bc the street has been holding this stock back.

     

    No reason with all the milestones hit in the last few months that AMRN shouldn't currently be trading at low to mid teens minimum..

     

    So in the Big picture AMRN's stock is undervalued and still has huge catalysts on the way.. We just need that 1 big surprise to help regain that true value and make shorts start covering (NCE, Combo or a great CC) 2 of the 3 come inside next 25 days.
    9 May 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Attm
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    May I conclude as the next 25 days will be exciting...
    9 May 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Attm
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    It seems that JZ avoided using such expressions in the cc.
    10 May 2013, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • golfstud
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    Just went back and read this post and everything u said regarding the cc pretty much happened. Now if the pps also falls into place per your prediction the longs will be very happy. Steve do u have some inside knowledge by chance? Thanks
    10 May 2013, 06:56 AM Reply Like
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