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Steve Rosenman
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Mr. Rosenman has nearly 15-years executive experience in the health and wellness sectors, including weight loss, cosmetics skincare and nutrition, both Rx and OTC. Expertise areas include strategic market and product planning and corporate development (evaluation, recommendation and execution of... More
  • Scripts 15 comments
    Jun 10, 2013 2:34 PM | about stocks: AMRN, GSK

    Have not been able to pull Vascepa weeklies, but Lovaza took a hit big time.

    Stocks: AMRN, GSK
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Comments (16)
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  • Scripts for the week: http://tinyurl.com/qdq...
    10 Jun 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • As a novice retail investor, charts like yours certainly help!

     

    Thanks
    12 Jun 2013, 01:16 AM Reply Like
  • Great spreadsheet! Thanks for the work it took to create it.
    12 Jun 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Very nice spreadsheet. We need to get updated numbers for the month to be able to factor out the holiday lag.
    10 Jun 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Steve -- one of the things I've been tracking is the relative ratio of Lovaza to Vascepa. It helps to scrub out holidays, at least. Vascepa is consistently gaining on Lovaza... see http://stks.co/cXKn . I'll be curious to see if that trend accelerates (as the word really gets out there) or not (once the low-hanging fruit have been picked). We'll see!
    11 Jun 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • The monthly data is in there now. Also a very simple cash burn model added. http://bit.ly/11xeuEM
    13 Jun 2013, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • Steve - I've been hearing rumblings from various venues on Cardiologists expressing their reluctance to prescribe Vascepa until the results of the REDUCE-IT study are known. I know that my own PCP was visited by an AMRN rep as early in the game as April. I thought it strange at the time, since the initial sales push was supposed to focus on the Cards. Now I'm hearing that more and more
    PCPs are prescribing Vascepa. Perhaps AMRN's initial strategy was ass backwards and they are adjusting. Your thoughts?
    14 Jun 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I believe they are doing just fine and keeping up with expectations.
    I dont believe it will matter much longer either - There are a few more catalysts to get through between now and Q3, then the action begins. PFE and Merck now my favorite picks for BO after doing some more investigation, and Forest if a royalty based partnership develops (more unlikely).
    14 Jun 2013, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • Steve - Deja Vu. Didn't we do this last year? lol BTW, the 3rd qtr starts in a couple of weeks!
    15 Jun 2013, 03:21 AM Reply Like
  • Hi Steve,
    Agree with your comments. Thero said the other day that there would be no hiring for Anchor so leads one to think that the ball is already rolling toward a buyout. Whoever buys them will want to put their own marketing plan into effect and ready when approval comes in. You mentioned catalysts to come? That would be combo results and NCE or is there something else I am missing. Thanks for your insight and I agree that PFE is looking good!
    15 Jun 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Great script numbers.. 3879. Big increase. Going in the right direction in a big way!!
    16 Jun 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • I know you hate making any references to timing...but when you say "between now and Q3"...do you mean end or beginning of Q3. Combo data should be out before end of month. What other catalyst do we have in the short term other than BO news?
    16 Jun 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Since launch, the shorts, bashers, etc have successfully run over every single catalyst that the company has; every single milestone they have achieved. Patents, sNDA file, sNDA acceptance, additional suppliers, etc etc etc. Every catalyst. Now lets assume that the big combo news, that we have all been waiting for (including shorts) is not just good, but great. Now if it is tied to a BP deal in some way then that might be the rocket fuel we need to get things going. But lets just assume its just "great" data. Do you honestly think that "catalyst" will be treated any differently from the other "catalysts" that we have apparently had over the last 6 months? I am convinced that JZ and AMRN must do some lifting on there own regarding pps if they are going to get a acceptable BP offer. ($25-32) A BP WILL NOT pay a 300-400% premium. Not going to happen, even if the acquired company had the cure for cancer, hunger, and world peace. AMRN is going to have to find away to get the pps up on their own ($11-14 should do it) first. Then they will be in a better position with a healthier stock. BP has shareholders to answer to as well. Otherwise I would think that a partnership of some sorts would be their path. To be honest? I thought maybe that "something" was more concrete by now, linked to combo results. It sounds to me by some of the investigating you have been doing, that we are still not where we want to be yet. Your thoughts are appreciated....
    15 Jun 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Big increase in scripts and renews.
    17 Jun 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • My OPINION: In order for B/O to happen, either nce has to be decided or Anchor gets approved. If NCE decided, Anchor becomes a wash at this point, due to the fact that they already accepted application, with pfuda date and as a result AMRN GETS 6 YEARS EXCLUSIVITIY, YES 6 YEARS (already burned a year). Combo results will not push b/o. Big pharma will pay 200% premium, I have seen it before, however once nce is decided they will be in the high teens anyway. NCE is the roadblock, FDA still on track for december, which is 6 months away. I think they might get early approval, ADCOM meeting itself will move the stock +3, -3 off of vote, and I am willing to bet any amount of $$ that fartstein will be there covering the action, probably only reporting on the negative things the doctors will say--remember this is a pure version of something that is taken by almost every american
    17 Jun 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
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