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Steve Rosenman
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Mr. Rosenman has nearly 15-years executive experience in the health and wellness sectors, including weight loss, cosmetics skincare and nutrition, both Rx and OTC. Expertise areas include strategic market and product planning and corporate development (evaluation, recommendation and execution of... More
  • Guess What...Amarin Still Will Be $4-6 Billion With Anchor 33 comments
    Jun 25, 2013 12:04 PM | about stocks: AMRN

    Let the capitulation happen and get new money in the stock. No concerns here - all news has been as expected with no negative surprises.

    Stocks: AMRN
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Comments (33)
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  • jasonwl
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Steve,

     

    We had our first test of support on a high volume spike at the low for the day. Do you see this being challenged again and possibly going lower?
    25 Jun 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • moeschempf
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    Steve, on StockTwits a board member tweeted that Joe Bruno from AMRN IR said company was in a blackout. From my experience, the blackout period is the negotiation/DD prior to both sides agreeing to a BO/partnership. In my company's case, it was a BO. Have you heard that AMRN was in a blackout period from anyone else?
    25 Jun 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't read stock twits or any of those other message boards, I barely follow SA. But, I wouldn't trust them, which is why I don't pay attention to them.
    25 Jun 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • moeschempf
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    Good point.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe today is capitulation. At these price levels, AMRN is like printing money.
    25 Jun 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • bakemann
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Steve, All the B.S spread around by the Street.com and others never bothered me a bit because I always new it was just that B.S.
    This ISIS development on the other hand is worrysome to say the least.
    Any idea of what the cost may be on these injections form ISIS if indeed it gets to market, and do you view this as a potential threat?
    thx
    baker9517
    25 Jun 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • framus_morrigan
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    ISIS development is years away from any NDA approval.
    Just 11 patients and only 6 of them were injected.
    I don't get why people is concerned about it or even talking about it.
    25 Jun 2013, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » totally agree. phase 3 is biggest risk, and I'd highly doubt they'd get past that. their numbers look way to big to be valid. look at clsn, looked great through phase 2, then failed miserably during phase 3. trial design is key people, and most companies don't get it right. amrn did. AF made the wrong call on clsn by the way, really wrong.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • adamfeuerstein
    , contributor
    Comments (329) | Send Message
     
    Steve -- Explain how I made the wrong call on CLSN?

     

    I warned readers about the risks in the Thermodox clinical trial well before the failed results were announced:

     

    http://bit.ly/RxFIgk

     

    Months before that column, I explained how CLSN was in the danger zone according to the Feuerstein-Ratain Rule:

     

    http://bit.ly/14u6lnD

     

    I was never bullish on CLSN and never predicted Thermodox's success. The drug failed. What did I get wrong?
    26 Jun 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • DNDNLONG
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Adam,

     

    You keep trying to play every side of the fence. You even bashed MNKD at $2 at $5 at $6 at $8. You even said you dont care about the products...So basically the only thing that matter is the stocks price. The stock is one of the biggest gainers in the market yet you bashed away all the way up just like Arna. Then you come out with some article claiming how you predicted the run up since the cult followers will bid it up. You always try to put some line in every article to cover yourself when the play goes against you. Get one thing into your head which is that every diabetic should be on Afrezza and Vascepa! You are clueless as to what each drug does. You think Afrezza is just an inhaled insulin and Vascepa is fish oil. Too funny! Your lies and distortions will eventually catch up with you.

     

    Isis will never work as USA is a nation of pill poppers and nobody will ever take a shot when you can take a pill among other things. Its funny how Adam claims Vascepa is garbage but then he touts a company trying to get in the same field. I love when he was writing about how generics are a threat to AMRN. So Vascepa is fish oil garbage yet every pharma is dying to get into this space. Very funny stuff.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • adamfeuerstein
    , contributor
    Comments (329) | Send Message
     
    You posted the following comment about DNDN in January:

     

    "I bought 35,000 shares between 7.25-9....I am holding from 30-50s...I am confident DNDN will retrace minimum 50% of its old highs this year. Why have the big boys not upgraded yet? They have egg on their faces last year and now. You will see the upgrades when DNDN hits 20s once their targets look so ridicolous they will have to upgrade. Once the last bozo upgrades is where I will sell 50% of my holdings. I can guarantee you that if it stays in mid teens much longer a hedge fund or big pharma will come with an offer. This is the best article I have read which explains how retarded this situation is. DNDN is going to do more revenues this year than what was orginially forcast by company for 2011 when it traded in the 40s.. It is just the matter of time."

     

    Ouch.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • t.aps76
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    It is sad that you are attacking others for investment decisions and can't even back up the constant questions raised about your articles. You are trash and the earlier you learn it the faster you will regain credibility.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Forgetting your "rule" (as it really doesn't relate tot eh drug at all, rather a profit taking strategy), and forgetting your timely warning about risks about CLSN's trial (as I actually put out a blog warning people days before the results were released that failure was coming due to poor trial design) did you not originally recommend and push the stock, I thought you did...?

     

    Please clarify and if I was mistaken I will certainly clear that up.
    27 Jun 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • rydad21
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    Was this supposed to be a reply to the previous poster, or a diversion from his indictment?
    27 Jun 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ISIS is no threat, period. It's an injectable indicated specifically for diabetes patients. If they are even successful after phase 3 only those with extremely high trigs with no other options would opt for in injection. And, insurance will only reimburse for narrow population, as the costs will be much higher than Vascepa. Non issue.
    26 Jun 2013, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • Scientist on Stocks
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
     
    ISIS drug in phase II was Once-A-Week sub-cutaneous injection. From ISIS PR...

     

    ''....In this study, 11 patients were randomized 2:1 to receive a 300 mg dose of ISIS-APOCIIIRx or placebo via weekly subcutaneous injections for 13 weeks......"

     

    subcutaneous administration allows self-administration, on top of that once-a-week makes ISIS-APOCIIIRx almost an ideal therapy IF it can reproduce those results in Phase III.

     

    Its a threat in my opinion.

     

    Just like many longs, i believed OMTH was no threat, but it proved it was and still it is after being in hands of AZN.
    28 Jun 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ISIS is no threat, I will reiterate. If you call an injection for very high trigs associated w/ diabetes and a patient population of 11 in a phase 2 a strong study, and easy candidate for FDA go-ahead, need to think again.

     

    OMTH no threat either, AZN's only play is to have it marketed with their statin. Once Vascepa is teamed up with its own statin, will render Epanova useless.
    28 Jun 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • CAPharmd
    , contributor
    Comments (398) | Send Message
     
    Good drug, incompetent management and that's why amrn trading below $6. It took more than 5 months to launch a drug and look at arna as they sold 6000 scripts during the first week. We haven't even hit 6000 scripts after 6 months.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • chunk713
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    I don't think your 6000 scripts in the 1st week is correct. In fact you are way off. They did 1087 the 1st week even though they launched the week before but had no numbers to report!!
    27 Jun 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    No negatives, Steve? The biggest negative to date is the price per share. My god man, Amarin traded higher before ANCHOR results. Again, the lack of institutional support at these prices is deafening. My first comment to your blog was a theory that the FDA put themselves in a bind by requiring Amarin to do a very expensive,lengthy outcomes study while at the same time not being able to protect them with an NCE designation. It was my theory that they would defer a decision until Amarin had "sufficient" patents to possibly protect themselves. Again, there has to be a reason why Wall St has abandoned this stock. We can try and reason it away but the proof is we are trading at pre ANCHOR prices and nobody is stepping up to the plate for a partnership or BO. If in the 3rd qtr we don't see a BIG ramp in PPS, something is definitely wrong and as usual we will be the last to know. I believe in the science, I'm heavily long and I take Vascepa but you have to admit, something ain't right here.
    27 Jun 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • exp456
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Steve doesn't want to hear anything negative--he's delusional about the $4-6 Billion. We all need to just sit tight until mid Oct.
    27 Jun 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • exp456
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN): Wainwright has initiated coverage of Wainwright with a Neutral rating and a $6 price target, as it sees a low probability of Amarin announcing a commercial partnership or acquisition.

     

    According to SR--we'll have a 500% BO premium.
    27 Jun 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Samuel-
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    huh?
    27 Jun 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • moeschempf
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    exp456, F' Wainwright! I like Aegis' target of $35 much better.
    27 Jun 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • framus_morrigan
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    just a thought,
    after good results in phase 3 for MARINE,
    after good results in phase 3 for ANCHOR,
    after getting SPA for REDUCE-IT,
    after submitting NDA for MARINE,
    after first patient was dosed in REDUCE-IT trial...
    after all those big news ... AMRN was trading at $6 by Dic'11 (from $19 in May) and everybody was talking about the same things like today. Shorts attacked this stock everyday and longs were scared and very angry with the management. A lot of people lost the faith in the company by Christmas'11.
    BUT 6 months later everybody knows what happened, right?
    I remember that because I lived that day in real time : $15.96 (FDA MARINE)

     

    This is the game in biotechs.
    Maximum depreciation until the last moment.

     

    Steve, thanks for all your work.
    27 Jun 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We'll see who is right once anchor approved in Q4.
    27 Jun 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • megatronx
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Hi, Steve
    Please, can you explain why Anchor has a very good chance to be approved?

     

    Thank you
    28 Jun 2013, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sure, and the chance is more than very good. Right now you are looking at a stock price factoring in no approval, when, in fact approval chance is 100% on a 10X market. One has to ask, if market is saying AMRN is $6 right now with under $5M sales, then should it be a $50 stock when Anchor approved and we address 10X market?

     

    Anchor results met and in many cases blew away expected endpoints. It has been proven effective.

     

    Vascepa has a side effects profile (or lack thereof) similar to placebo - the only drug in its class with this benefit. So, no safety issues which are the primary reason these FDA panels are assembled to begin with.

     

    Finally, the trials were designed under SPA with FDA listing in writing the tasks that AMRN needed to meet in order to get regulatory approval.

     

    Given the recent weight loss drugs received panel approval and they have really serious side effects (some deadly). In addition, Niacin was approved, is still on market, has side effects and failed its outcome study, yet FDA has taken no action.

     

    AMRN panel is just formality. They are going for reduction in trigs, not cardio events...yet.

     

    Anchor will be approved on time, stock will be in teens, before we are offered premiums.
    28 Jun 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • exp456
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Pfizer approves $10 billion share buyback program--they are not interested in AMRN--sorry Steve!
    27 Jun 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • moeschempf
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    exp456, How does a $10B share buyback program show that PFE isn't interested in AMRN?
    27 Jun 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • chunk713
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Agree! They are sitting on an additional 25 billion also!!
    27 Jun 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Danburydude
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    I think I see some signs that PFE and AMRN tried to dance the dance again. I think for now, those two have backed off again. My hunch is PFE backed away this time. That is not to say the third time may be the charm on down the road.
    28 Jun 2013, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • pwt750
    , contributor
    Comments (130) | Send Message
     
    lovaza gets another label change http://1.usa.gov/13bsH0F

     

    any info ?
    27 Jun 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
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