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Steve Rosenman
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Mr. Rosenman has nearly 15-years executive experience in the health and wellness sectors, including weight loss, cosmetics skincare and nutrition, both Rx and OTC. Expertise areas include strategic market and product planning and corporate development (evaluation, recommendation and execution of... More
  • Vascepa Script Numbers Continue To Build Nicely 21 comments
    Jun 28, 2013 5:10 PM | about stocks: AMRN, GSK

    Vascepa refills up over 12%, double digit base growth too. On track to meet or exceed FY analyst revenue estimates.

    Lovaza and Niacin share directly going to Vascepa.

    GSK has to be talking to AMRN at this point.

    Stocks: AMRN, GSK
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Comments (21)
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  • Chart w/most recent #'s from BullRunner: http://bit.ly/17IlIiP

     

    We are in for a strong Q'2 revenue report!
    28 Jun 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • It seems like a slam dunk decision for GSK to buy AMRN. They could do away with Lovaza and have the superior drug in Vascepa until 2030. At current Lovaza revenues of $1 billion, a $5 billion buyout would pay for itself by 2019. Throw in Anchor approval, and they could pay for the buyout by 2016. That would leave 14 years of huge profits for GSK.
    29 Jun 2013, 06:11 AM Reply Like
  • Saw this on the ihub board and I agree completely.

     

    "My biggest concern is that we won't get a lot of adoption for the Anchor indication before the outcome data. And maybe not a lot of Tier2 coverage for this indication as well. In other words, the 10x market may be more like 2x."
    30 Jun 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tier 2 coverage already here and expanding. There is already off-label use of the ANCHOR indication type, just like there is for Lovaza. When AMRN gets the Anchor indication, I think they will take away a larger % of the Lovaza business.
    30 Jun 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • As for the ihub comment: even if that were the case, we're talking about 8 mil people as potential customers, plus the already 4 mil in the Marine population, resulting in 12 mil people to sell to. Not bad. However, considering AMRN has already secured patents in EU and Europe has a population of roughly 750 mil people, there's a big market. Joe Z also spoke awhile ago about expanding to possibly Brazil and India (huge populations). The bear argument that Anchor won't sell just seems miserably myopic to me. Not to mention that Lovaza is being prescribed to people in the Anchor population currently (off-label) even though it's not nearly as effective at lowering LDL-C like Vascepa and may cause atrial fibrillation.
    30 Jun 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • I get that there will be some off label use, but the $4-$6 billion price tags takes into account capturing a large population i.e. 10 times the Marine. Maybe that's the prime reason that BP has a wait and see attitude with respect to a potential buyout.
    30 Jun 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Post on ihub regarding off label use and the Leerink survey that indicated that 75% off label use of L

     

    "Oh I agree that some MD's will prescribe for Anchor ...to me it's more a question of insurance co pays .
    Not sure if we can expect much Tier 2 coverage there ....what do you think ?
    The off label Lovaza scrips probably would not have been covered so I doubt 75% of those taking Lovaza are spending $8 a day for the privilege ....in other words ..their survey is suspect IMHO
    By the way ....you have quite a following on YMB."
    AK
    30 Jun 2013, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • "GSK has to be talking to AMRN at this point."

     

    LOL! Nice assumption based on nothing at all. Also, you fail to mention the stock continues to get pummeled.
    1 Jul 2013, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Steve, what happened with the 5k scripts 'prediction' by May??? It's July now and we're still at 4.4k unless you assume underreporting, which might bring us above 5, but still....
    5 Jul 2013, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • Hi Steve- I am trying to figure out if I should take a loss and just move on. I was foolish enough to get in at close to $14 and am not quite sure it will get there by early next yr. I'm also not dire how much more risk we have. Should I bail? I just want my initial investment back.
    6 Jul 2013, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • If you don't want to be here, the best advice is to sell and move on. Personally, I think the stock is going to do just fine. Lot of impatience in the market. This is a buyout or long term. If you want to be somewhere else, life is too short to be miserable. Go, and good luck to you.
    6 Jul 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Why are you getting annoyed at someone that is looking at a 60% loss? Obviously I want this to go up but one yr out of approval and I'm down big. Im frustrated!
    7 Jul 2013, 02:44 AM Reply Like
  • I fail to see any annoyance in my post. I gave you good solid life advice...
    7 Jul 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • steve, what are your thoughts on this announcement of selling additional 21.7 million shares? why now before annual meeting?
    are you adjusting your price targets based on this? where do we go from here?
    8 Jul 2013, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Todays capital raise was not enough to launch the ANCHOR indication alone. In addition, the timing indicates that a partnership without perhaps any money up front must be under negotiation. Perhaps a royalty/shared expense type of deal where Amarin maintains control of the Vascepa asset but accesses an established sales force.

     

    I can think of no other reason to do a secondary at todays price per share and at this point in time where cash need is not imminent, except as part of a deal waiting to be inked. Could be a deal is on the table, right before the board meeting.
    8 Jul 2013, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • In my opinion, this 21.7 millon shares at $5.96 is not a big problem.
    It's a good price. Easy to sell quicly.
    This type of movement was also made by January 2011 and six months later the price hit $19.
    8 Jul 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • Guess AF is a better investor than SR!
    8 Jul 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • How old are you?
    8 Jul 2013, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Steve will come out with another hit piece ie Prive targets increased and GSK is interested - he's obtaining all the info from "chatter".

     

    We are all screwed for now but I know one thing got sure, we all need to make up ouunds about investing z stock without hearing all the fud from self proclaimed experts like SR
    8 Jul 2013, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • let me get this straight, everybody here thinks AMRN is worth $5b and its market cap is just chillin at sub $1b valuation for.....what reason lol. im betting the length of exclusivity is not as true as we all wish for (2030) and more likely a mere 5 years left. otherwise this would be valued higher. AMRN is falling 95% short of turning a profit....they've spent $100m~ and received $10m back....im no rocket scientist, but its not that hard to turn a profit on any givin investment. if it is that hard, its not worth having.
    9 Jul 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Ever came across stocks that went up?
    Guess what, before all these stocks went up.. they were chilling at lower prices
    9 Jul 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
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