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Steve Rosenman
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Mr. Rosenman has nearly 15-years executive experience in the health and wellness sectors, including weight loss, cosmetics skincare and nutrition, both Rx and OTC. Expertise areas include strategic market and product planning and corporate development (evaluation, recommendation and execution of... More
  • Amarin Strategic Moves 47 comments
    Jul 24, 2013 11:58 PM | about stocks: AMRN

    As noise increases around Amarin evaluating potential partnership deals associated with Anchor between now and review panel, very high likelihood outright suitor emerges for BO to ward off potential competition. Talks active and continuing around Anchor. BP simply cannot let the asset fall into the wrong hands.

    Stocks: AMRN
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Comments (47)
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  • stephenhandal
    , contributor
    Comments (187) | Send Message
     
    "Talks active and continuing around Anchor" - based on what?
    25 Jul 2013, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • stephenhandal
    , contributor
    Comments (187) | Send Message
     
    Ignore my previous comment. Now, I know exactly where you got that 'info.' You took that directly from the JP Morgan note today.
    25 Jul 2013, 02:49 AM Reply Like
  • ReallyReal
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    The recent JPM note was enlightening. The companies most recent script numbers, especially new scripts, appear to be stagnating a bit. One would expect that an $18 price target would get chopped some as the launch shows a little sluggishness. It is actually more likely the price cut is simply due to the actual PPS since most analysts get antsy when their price target is a few multiples above the markets pricing. This is normal. What is really interesting about the note was the mention of activity surrounding a partnership and that Amarin now appears to be more open to such a thing. Coyly, the JPM analyst notes that M&A is not out of the question. The price cut is seemingly secondary in these notes, while partnering and an outright buyout are the real message. Yes, a partnership is much more likely right at the time of ANCHOR approval, but like Steve says, BP may lose access to the drug forever if that happens. Unless I've missed something about the science of Vascepa, BP is interested today and might feel more urgency after this JPM assessment. Considering JPM is likely to be involved in any partnering or M&A activity, the note today seems to say, "BP, come to JPM and let's talk about your future with Vascepa now, your time is running out".
    25 Jul 2013, 05:20 AM Reply Like
  • rml360
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    Can you clarify the wording...a noise increases?
    25 Jul 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, there will be increasing rumors soon. In fact, some occurred in the JPM notes recently.
    25 Jul 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • rml360
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    I think if NCE comes in, b/o will happen shortly after-Anchor is almost a given with the 74 day letter, good safety profile, etc..plus it would help amarin's case if BP was there holding amarin's hand at the ADCOM meeting. If you are right about the resources with the fda, then decision could be delayed, however, if the fda makes a decision, look out
    25 Jul 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AMRN is getting Anchor, and NCE before end of year. The company will go down path of speaking about partnering the drug, only to be acquired for significant premium.
    25 Jul 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Maiwat
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    "AMRN is getting Anchor, and NCE before end of year. The company will go down path of speaking about partnering the drug, only to be acquired for significant premium." ----

     

    Is the above based on specific knowledge you have or are they just guesses/hunches? I thought you said you were going to quit forecasting NCE.

     

    The problem with AMRN now, in my opinion, is that they have boxed themselves into a corner by saying in 1st Qtr CC "No GIA w/Anchor" to recent concessions that Anchor might begin with a GIA. BP can just sit back and watch AMRN flounder and flail along until a point when they, BP, can dictate all the terms.

     

    This happened back in Oct/Nov when AMRN had the "exciting times" w/3 paths and it will happen again.

     

    Meanwhile, AMRN sits at 2 1/2 year lows ($5.24) and has a constant drip...drip...drip Chinese like water-torture played out on its price on a daily basis.

     

    Steve, no offense, but it would really be nice to see you elaborate on your predictions and statements instead of just issuing them as if they were an already foregone conclusions. If you are just guessing, then maybe just say it. But to continue issuing your proclamations as if they are established facts is misleading, to say the least.
    25 Jul 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Samuel-
    , contributor
    Comments (103) | Send Message
     
    "This happened back in Oct/Nov when AMRN had the "exciting times" w/3 paths and it will happen again. "

     

    Is the above based on specific knowledge you have or are they just guesses/hunches?
    25 Jul 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » my best guess based on information I have.
    25 Jul 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • xtramieinvest
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    just mabey,,, steves foregone conclusions,, and his proclamations,, maybe they are established facts which have yet to come to fruition.. why even read his blog,, if your going to jab... amrn long and strong
    26 Jul 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • amrnBagHolder
    , contributor
    Comments (82) | Send Message
     
    AMEN... They may be just a prayer, but I am kneeling beside him... and most of you...
    26 Jul 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • rml360
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    that's a call if I ever saw one, I bought 2000 additional at 5.36 yesterday, thinking it will not go too much lower. I also own options in Jan 2015 way out of the money.
    25 Jul 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » North of $25
    25 Jul 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Ladavis23
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Steve,

     

    What is everyone talking about regarding the JPM notes and rumors? I have the full JPM AMRN 7/23/2013 notes from the company and it tips to nothing on the sort. Not sure if you have the notes, but I would be more than happy to email them to you. Am I missing something or are you looking at something else?

     

    Thx
    25 Jul 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » you are missing something. read the part about mgt more open to partnership discussions...
    25 Jul 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Quixal
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Personally, I am going to sit back and see what the CC brings. Too many things not adding up here with the current PPS and steady but very slow script growth.
    25 Jul 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • restingzebra1
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for all of your good DD and excellent reporting.

     

    QUESTION: An thoughts as to why there has not been a new release about the very important 669 patent? I've been checking daily and have not seen anything.

     

    Thanks.
    25 Jul 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • amrnBagHolder
    , contributor
    Comments (82) | Send Message
     
    I keep going back to the simple PPS - and good point about the 669 patent. This PPS seems way to low for the potential and with anchor being so close. My fear is Wall Street knows something Steve (and the rest of us) do not. There does not seem to be a logical reason for the continual price drop. Its practically daily. There has to be a reason. My fear is we don't know what it is. Delay in Anchor is my only suspicion... I certainly hope NOT!!! I've lost enough in this stock.
    25 Jul 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WS is playing a timing game right now.

     

    If we don't go up substantially before October, then there may be some info hiding in the background that we don't know about, but I'm not getting too excited now. In fact, I see better fundamentals than expected due to some additional awarded or to be awarded IP plus better than expected scripts revenue.
    25 Jul 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Quixal
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    ABH, my sentiments exactly.
    25 Jul 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    In my experience if there were something ominous lurking in the background we would be hearing about it already as these type of things don't stay secret. In addition, the short interest has actually dropped as of 7/15.
    25 Jul 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • framus_morrigan
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    About patent rejection for EPA/DHA, I think this has been a very smart strategic move.
    Bad for Epanova (AZN) .... good for AMRN.
    Now the company is a more valuable target.
    The price should reflect this new situation.
    27 Jul 2013, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • rml360
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    this pos is worth at least 35 with anchor and nce 7 billion dollars, nothing less, that is my call, if Joe can create a bidding war, it may go into the 35-40 range, I would be more than happy with 35, expecially before my sept. calls go worthless
    25 Jul 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • chuckles1
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Steve, Greatly appreciate your latest (and all) comments/ insight regarding AMRN.

     

    As potential BO and/or partnership discussions evolve, do you believe CVR's will be a portion of the terms? What catalysts do you feel might be aligned with CVR's (Anchor approval, Reduce-It, Sales growth)?

     

    Thanks
    25 Jul 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • studythosestocks
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Thx for the insight Steve. Here's hoping things come together quickly or at least in the next 6 months.
    25 Jul 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • coopman98
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    just need to remember that on Jan 5 2012 pps was6.38 on Jul 6 12 it was 15.12, we have two weeks to a CC, 2 1/2 months to adcom and about 5 months till end of yr and anchor approval. the worm can turn it has b4
    25 Jul 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • bravo33
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    In a 60 day stretch (October 16 to December 20) safety & efficacy, exclusivity and allowance to sell to another 40 million people on label are resolved. I don't know if there is another time in the company's history or future experience when so much is answered. I'd strongly advise every investor - long or short - to build a plan around these dates. Allowing for the fact that AdComm will start impacting pps 2 to 4 weeks in advance I see no more that ~35 trading days before pumpkin time for short interest.

     

    Thanks Steve for sharing views, insights.
    25 Jul 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • see punjabi
    , contributor
    Comments (365) | Send Message
     
    Steve, not worried at all since this is all noise that will fade away once anchor is approved. Holding my 2015 options and adding if drops further. This is wall street.
    25 Jul 2013, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • xtramieinvest
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    its all I can say as a novice invest0r;;..iv put it all and I mean all.. ive done my dd and it seems to me that the potential market is 10 bil plus..... am I wrong .. not long and strong
    25 Jul 2013, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Samuel-
    , contributor
    Comments (103) | Send Message
     
    Summer sale on Amarin... but it better not go under 5 dallaz
    26 Jul 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • jackster101
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Pretty bad script numbers!
    27 Jul 2013, 05:01 AM Reply Like
  • framus_morrigan
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    Jack, take a look at refills numbers for a moment. Much better than expected.
    27 Jul 2013, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    Actually the numbers were good. context is everything. In the same indication, Lovaza down, Niaspan down, Vascepa flat overall but with a very nice refill number. Weekly numbers at this point are relatively meaningless. We look at 'em because of the lack of information and that is all we have.
    27 Jul 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • jackster101
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    As homebuilder has pointed out
    " So, where did those 6,000 Lovaza Rx go? Not to Vascepa appparently. Docs lightening up prescribing fish oil type meds"
    27 Jul 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • framus_morrigan
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    John Thero, Joseph Kennedy and Joseph Zakrzewski buying shares today. Unfortunately only a few.
    27 Jul 2013, 05:01 AM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    Option exercise.
    27 Jul 2013, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • framus_morrigan
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    Now we know the might of AMRN's patents, now we know Vascepa is strongly protected until 2030 ... I'm just wondering if NCE is so important right now?
    I know market is obsessed with NCE for a year but it only provides 5 years.

     

    Do you remember Joe Z telling us that NCE is becoming less and less important?
    Understood , Joe .
    28 Jul 2013, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    ELN sells for $ 8.6 billion dollars. Irish tax rate figures into the deal.
    http://reut.rs/19siz6u.
    29 Jul 2013, 05:55 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Folks, I have been getting private messages asking for my take on ELN. The only thing I will say about it is that Perrigo could act in similar fashion as Teva would when you were hearing rumors about Teva takeover of AMRN. While I never was on the bandwagon with that rumor, the strategic move is rather interesting as you could launch as the brand and also control generic - a long term win-win. Perrigo also has infant nutrition and VMS divisions, which use Omega-3s. Perrigo does not have direct soft gel encapsulation capabilities at this time, but is actively and aggressively looking for them.

     

    I'm not going to comment on the ELN takeover or Perrigo other than that, as it is very close to my area of business.

     

    Let's focus on getting Anchor through and then look to the big cardio players.

     

    Side note, AMRN is not hiring a larger sales force to market Anchor indication. Confirmed by company rep.
    29 Jul 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • coldcoffee123
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Do not forget that if the stock goes below $5, institutional investors can not remain invested. If $5 is breached, the stock could see $1-3
    29 Jul 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    That is absolutely false. While breaking $5.00 a share would trip stops, many many institutional investors are invested in stocks below $5.00/share. Suggest you do alittle homework.
    29 Jul 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Not accurate, sorry.
    29 Jul 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • ajbrzoz
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Wrong, coldcoffee.
    29 Jul 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • coldcoffee123
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Who wouldn't love AMRN to touch $35? But $5+ is the reality that not even the born-to-short sellers would have imagined. But things happen. As they say, truth is stranger than fiction. I have been following Steve's assessment of AMRN since Aug 2012 and yes, I agree with him as regards the potential, the science and the market. Yet, with an analyst as good as Steve, here we are. Hopefully, the rally will begin soon, going into October. Although anything above $25 seems a mirage. I doubt anybody would offer higher 20s and I doubt Joseph wants to sell anything under 30. Time will tell.
    29 Jul 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • BiotechBillionair
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    306 reps now that are direct hires, if they solo launch Anchor I believe they'll use PDI and Rich Shalaby.

     

    Increased IP is starting to clear valuation picture.

     

    Lovaza citizen petition due this week.

     

    74 day letter for Omthra will contain a non file, sometime in Sept.
    29 Jul 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • bravo33
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    For those of us less schooled in implications of citizen petition and likely outcome / ramification of 74 day letter . . . can you say more? I've followed discussion somewhat but not enough. Thank you sir.
    29 Jul 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
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