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Mr. Rosenman has nearly 15-years executive experience in the health and wellness sectors, including weight loss, cosmetics skincare and nutrition, both Rx and OTC. Expertise areas include strategic market and product planning and corporate development (evaluation, recommendation and execution of... More
  • Amarin Update After CC 70 comments
    Aug 9, 2013 11:10 AM | about stocks: AMRN

    No BS on this call, you can hear JZ's frustration about their depressed stock price. He brought out the heavy guns, science guy, attorney, pretty heavy crew he was rolling with on this CC and they did a nice job.

    Clear tier 2 progress and SG&A cost management. Also, way too early in launch to track revenues. Also, promo efforts and early reporting make it foggy. So, focus on scripts, not revs now.

    Anchor clear value driver, it will get approved. When it does, my read from the CC is JZ will have higher offers than he does now to consider. AMRN will be sold to highest bidder.

    Reiterate $28-32, NCE and Anchor approval.

    Stocks: AMRN
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Comments (70)
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  • ozoneranger
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    I couldn't agree more SR...Joe would have preferred to have fast forwarded to October. Me too!
    9 Aug 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Steve - You can put lipstick on a pig but it is still a pig. This was not a good CC for Amarin. Revenues were paltry. They are burning through cash like a French whore on Saturday night. The sales and marketing effort is failing miserably to convert lesser drugs in the space to Vascepa scripts. Cost of goods sold is way to high. Joe Z. knows this and his disappointment was palpable. Tier 2 conversion was good but hasn't translated into scripts...yet. There is no secret now on why they did a capital raise near the 52 week low. There is no secret now on why the current stock price is in the tank. All in all Q2 was a fail and management knows it. Nearly every analyst has dropped their price target. Joe Z. risks the very possibility of alienating analysts and institutional investors alike.

     

    There is no reason why BP will bid this up to the levels you suggest.They can sit back and watch the show until such time Joe has painted all of us into a very tight corner. If there is any hope it will be because Joe Z. makes some wholesale changes in the marketing approach and cost containment. If Q3 doesn't show a very clear change in trajectory, this launch will be another failure in a long line of biotech launch failures. Getting ANCHOR approved isn't going to change the landscape if Vascepa isn't marketed efficiently and effectively.........now. Amarin has lost the PR war. If they don't regain that ground, ANCHOR means absolutely nothing.

     

    In summary, Vascepa is the best drug no ones ever heard of. We are burning through cash and resources way faster than we are gaining market share. This has to change and change now. The answer isn't simply "wait for the ANCHOR approval" . The answer is effective PR, efficient marketing and education on a scale Amarin can not afford. This is a job for BP.
    9 Aug 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • dallas1dallas1
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    On a go-it-alone product launch, they are going to spend a ton initially. They are trying to establish the drug's name on the market. Costs will continue to decline as they go.

     

    This drug is and has ALWAYS been about ANCHOR. It's the driving force that will make this drug, company, and stockholders successful. Marine was always a drop in the pond comparatively.

     

    Even in the WORST case scenario where sales don't take off, anchor gets delayed (don't believe it will be delayed at all)... the company is STILL worth about $10/share to BP just on patents, the fact that it's FDA approved, supply chain is locked down, tier 2 is achieved, combo drug potential, and anchor potential. So even in the worst case, it's almost worth double what it's currently trading at. All of those are things (except AMR102 trials, etc) are things that BP wouldn't have to bother spending money, time, etc on, because Amarin has already gotten it done for them.

     

    With ANCHOR approval on time, Steve's numbers won't be too far off.
    11 Aug 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Maiwat
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Pirate, you nailed the conference call and the current AMRN debacle. Thank you for telling it like it truly is.

     

    Steve, at some point you have to revise your numbers. Even the analysts have been downgrading their numbers. There is just no way a BP is going to offer even half of what you are suggesting without a strong catalyst. Revenue numbers are paltry, at best. Management did their best to create a positive view, but they basically told us nothing. No guidance, no update on how Anchor will be marketed (if approved), barely a drop in spending.

     

    How does a small company spend over $52 million in a given quarter? I don't get it. Where exactly is the money going? Until they turn off the spigot, AMRN will be facing another secondary within 8 months time.

     

    I understand that management does not want to give the company away, but at the rate they are going there will not be much of a company left to do anything with. A partnership can be a win-win! Management needs to remove the uncertainty and do it quickly.
    9 Aug 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Scripts rose 351%......and yet recognized revenue grew only 135%? Seriously? The Q1 press release acknowledged the high COGS and mentioned using Chemport/BASF suppliers to lower that cost, yet here we are past Q2 and they are saying it again? Scripts have been stalling for the last 5 weeks. It might be seasonal but if it isn't we are in trouble.

     

    This management team had better do more than award themselves tons of cheap options and posh salaries. If they take this gig too far they will lose any leverage from which to negotiate a deal. The ANCHOR catalyst is the bright spot on the horizon but if they screw that up they will have totally screwed their shareholders. They should be partnering right now in anticipation of an ANCHOR launch. If Vascepa is as big of a deal as everyone says it is and the ANCHOR market is as big as they say it is, there will be plenty of money to be made in a partnership.
    9 Aug 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • bakemann
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    not impressed at all with the Q2 #'s, yet I still believe we see double digits by Dec.
    9 Aug 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Deep.Blue
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    After NCE and Anchor, BP will sit back and drool as amrn explodes into insane bottom line profitability with its PIPSQUEAK sized salesforce and bow wave of ex Lovaza scripts that come their way as reimbursement for Lovaza melts down faster than an ice cube in boiling water.
    9 Aug 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Steve - No way Amarin gets sold this year. I am willing to wager you $1000.00 US dollars it doesn't happen.
    9 Aug 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • xtramieinvest
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    @ pirate..... so your last comment has the mindset of a gambler... so why don't you go to vegas and get your desire of losing money a reality.. or just short this stock to zero.. and why would you as highminded as your comment was...come on someones blog and try and discredit their article... stay out of the sector if you cant handle the heat... seriously..
    10 Aug 2013, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • xtramieinvest
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    and after reading your ignorant comments again,, its easy to smell the.... im going attack steves article.. vs.. giving the retail investors some insight .... you my friend should short this stock to zero.. or ZIP you comments to zero
    10 Aug 2013, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    No one is knocking Steves articles or blog posts, sonny! I've been long this stock since before the MARINE trial results came out in 2010. At this point I'm embarrased to admit how many 10s of thousands of shares I own, given the current stock price.

     

    My proposal was a friendly wager. Your comments are way out of line.
    10 Aug 2013, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • @pharmdca
    , contributor
    Comments (400) | Send Message
     
    Steve,
    All this drama around amrn will end with nce and anchor approval. Everybody seems so bearish about amrn but new drug launch takes time to establish in the market and it's not just the new launch but the insurance companies mess makes the launch even harder. However, with anchor approval things will change quickly. I'm not concerned at this point as I would accumulate shares and options at cheap prices right now.
    10 Aug 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pirate - you are reading this wrong. You can not accurately account for revs now b/c of the promotional activity and freebies.
    10 Aug 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps and do understand the dynamics here. I'm frustrated as hell at the current share price. FWIW, I'd love to lose the bet. a $28 - $32 buyout would make me extremely happy. However, I get the feeling that Joe Z. is really toying with the idea of GIA on ANCHOR and trying to stretch this out all the way to REDUCE-IT. I simply can not hold the entirety of my shares for that length of time. I've been patient and loyal going on 3 years.
    10 Aug 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • framus_morrigan
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    I don't understand why people is so negative!
    you guys see the future of this company dark, dark , dark.
    No perspective here.
    10 Aug 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » News flash for you Maiwat: There are presently only 3 analysts factoring in Anchor and the estimates are at $18, $20 and $35. The collective average of others is mid teens and only based on Marine.
    10 Aug 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • chunk713
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for pointing that out Steve. Maiwat is a known basher of Amarin so take his posting with a grain of salt. Pirate says he is long the stock but his comments say otherwise since he is very negative. Could be a short in longs clothing? I thought the conference call was very positive especially Mr. Ketchum who is very well versed. Too early in launch to come to any conclusions, after all this was the 1st full quarter of the launch. Its ALL about Anchor now and quite frankly that is looking very good!!
    10 Aug 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Chunk - The short interest is not very high. I would bet that 40% -50% of the current short interest is a hedge/arbitrage play against the convertible bond issue anyway. A possibility that most retail shorts don't even consider since they do little or no DD. As of 7/31 the short interest has dropped another 5%.
    My point is that negative comments don't always originate with short sellers and shorts are not boogie men controlling the stock. I'm not short the stock. Anyone short now is either stupid and using the short for a hedge. The stock has completed a triple bottom and that is bullish. However, there is no real buying going on here which is allowing shorts to escape scott free. In the month of July, alittle over 2.6 million short shares covered reducing the short interest by approximately 10.5%. In the same time period the price of the stock DROPPED 6%. That my friend would frustrate anyone with a brain.
    The last time the short interest was at this level, the price of the stock was in the 13-14 dollar range.
    That tells me that the run up to adcom will be muted at best. God forbid that the Adcom is rigged and that the briefing documents hold surprises. I've seen it before.
    10 Aug 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • chunk713
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Pirate- I understand your frustration with the stock price where its at. I don't think anyone would say they are happy with it. That being said, I believe the tide is turning for Amarin. You mentioned the short interest being in decline in July but price of stock was down 6 percent. I think the share price drop was due to the delution was it not? I did not expect it to go up at that time. I think a lot of buyers are waiting for the adcom and pdufa for Anchor. I think it is looking very good for approval especially since the 74 day letter came through cleaner than it did in the marine approval. Hence my positive outlook. I also think that a runup to adcom will be likely also.I also understand that nothing is a sure thing and some strange things could happen, ie nce, But the adcom is for safety and efficacy and Vascepa passes both with flying colors. So I am very optimistic about ADCOM and PDUFA being positive. I also think we get NCE also during that period. Then watch the fireworks!!
    11 Aug 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Maiwat
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    My point to you, Steve, is that most of those analysts who have factored in Anchor have already dropped their price targets.

     

    Not only have they dropped their price targets but they have more than once, or even twice, lowered their revenue estimations. At one point, over 100m was estimated for first year sales. Then this number was dropped to the 80m level, then the 60m level. I believe most analysts are expecting somewhere in the 40m level.

     

    But I am sure you are well versed with what the analysts are doing and you do not need me to tell you this.

     

    People here confuse me being short the stock versus being long but critical of management. I do not "bash"! I question and question again versus continuously accepting only what "good things" are being written/said. Too much stuff being written by unknowledgeable people who fail to do their research before writing SA articles. (And I am NOT referring to you, Steve) Yes, I will question these people and their bogus" estimates if they seem wonky.

     

    Not so very long ago, management said "no way GIA with Anchor" (paraphrased). Now it sounds that GIA for Anchor with the puny sales force is a 50/50 proposition. There is no way a GIA with 275 sales reps is going to unlock the supposedly revenue upside for Anchor.

     

    Everyone is saying, "it is all about Anchor". What happens if management does not put the pieces in place to unlock the Anchor revenue? Is everyone then going to begin saying, "well, it's really all about Reduce-It while Marine & Anchor are the preliminary stages"?
    I hope you see my point.

     

    I just want management to put the pieces in place even if it means giving up a slice of the pie. Create stability and certainty with WS and shareholders. Generate positive cash flow with revenue sharing and bring Reduce-It to a successful finish.
    11 Aug 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Chunk - On the face of it, the Adcom and approval should be a slam dunk. The discussion about whether or not the ANCHOR indication approval should be contingent upon outcomes from REDUCE-IT is troubling though. In my opinion, there should be no discussion and yet there has been enough "talk" that Amarin has had to acknowledge the possibility that the FDA will take this stance.
    This tells me that there are opposing opinion makers trying to influence the discussion and that the FDA is under some external pressure. If doctors don't want to prescribe Vascepa until such time that positive outcomes are validated, that of course should be their perogative. In my opinion that should't factor in to approval.
    Yet, apparently it is. I don't have a great deal of trust in the FDA.

     

    Part of that distrust stems from the Arena debacle in which the "rat tumor" issue which was put to bed by both Arena and the FDA mysteriously showed up prominently in the briefing documents at the first Adcom. The FDA had assured Arena that the rat tumor situation was not an issue. Eisai had partnered with Arena prior to the first Adcom and so you know they did their DD and the issue did not arise. Investors were wholly unaware that there would be a problem which led to a slew of class action lawsuits. As it turned out the rat tumor problem wasn't a problem but the FDA nearly destroyed Arena in the process and lots of investors got hurt very badly. After the fact it was revealed that the finger prints of BP and a couple of hedge funds were all over it.

     

    I'm not comparing AMRN and ARNA. I am though pointing out that the FDA is not immune from outside forces and apparently there are some outside forces with a vested interest in seeing denial of the ANCHOR approval.
    12 Aug 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » you're wrong.
    13 Aug 2013, 03:41 AM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    You're correct. I should have said "alleged" instead of "revealed". Either way, the business that took place was anything but clear.
    13 Aug 2013, 04:56 AM Reply Like
  • chunk713
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Pirate - I understand your distrust about the FDA and all the conversation about Anchor being tied to outcomes from Reduce-it, but on the conference call Mr. Ketchum specifically said that there would be No ties for Anchor to outcomes from Reduce-it so that for me puts that to rest for good. I think that a lot of noise was put out there by the hit blogger and his minions that they were hoping to put fear into shareholders. They threw a bunch of non factual comments out and hoped some of it would stick. I listen to the facts as presented and disregard the rest.
    13 Aug 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Chunk - I suppose I harbor a degree of paranoia. AF's quoting a major figure in cardiology declaring no need for Vascepa in the 200mg/dl - 500mg/dl indication until outcomes are known. Summer Street misquoting a doctor and then attributing the quote to an "insider". Articles appearing in the mainstream press first saying omega 3s have no value in cardiac outcomes and then attributing increased risk of prostate cancer to the consumption of Omega 3s.

     

    I just have a hard time believing that the timing is coincidental. Where there is ALOT of money involved, there are competing interests.
    13 Aug 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Samuel-
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    Do you see a possible scenario of Anchor being approved and stock price not going up? What if the the street doesn't react in excitement to the decision as long as there's no partner\BO to go along? Could the stock remain low?
    10 Aug 2013, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • BillBixby
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    It looks like AMRN is continuing with the "Omthera patent" 13685281 with a TrackOne request for continued examination. http://1.usa.gov/13YL5FD

     

    Also, based on comments from management on the 2Q CC, a B/O or partnership doesn't appear to be imminent as they appear to be increasingly open to self launch and promotion in the ANCHOR population. As such, the 28-32 price range, though attainable based on the intrinsic value of the product, may no longer be a near term reality.
    11 Aug 2013, 01:51 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » PE-stop w/ your propositions for wagers. When you are ready to step into the big time save your money and spend it on AMRN shares, you'll be better off. My 'gambles' usually start at $50K.
    11 Aug 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Your gambles start at $50k? I own over 75,000 shares of AMRN. I trust that with an MBA, you can do the math.

     

    I'll stop with the wager proposals when you stop with the endless "buyout" prognostications which never come true. My challenge of your position shouldn't be taken as a "personal" affront to you. It is certainly not meant that way. Don't be so sensitive.
    11 Aug 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pirate, send me a PDF of your brokerage account statement (account #s omitted of course) showing you own 75K shares and then we'll talk... I think we're done here.
    13 Aug 2013, 03:41 AM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    No problem at all. Coming your way.
    13 Aug 2013, 03:48 AM Reply Like
  • DNDNLONG
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    I work for Adobe...We just got alerted that someone named Pirateescapee was trying to install Adobe Photoshop with an illegal key...Any reason why he might be doing this? lol
    13 Aug 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • xtramieinvest
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    I hate to say it.. im not contributing to the article... but im lamao reading your comment.... thanks I need a laugh or two waiting for anchor... long and strong amrn,, arna
    14 Aug 2013, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • ajbrzoz
    , contributor
    Comments (65) | Send Message
     
    Good summary. Just a wild guess, but I'm thinking BO price will be $35+ per share.
    11 Aug 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • framus_morrigan
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    When Tier 2 MARINE converts automatically to Tier 2 ANCHOR ... that's going to be HUGE.
    11 Aug 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Agree it is a job for BP, that is where I stop agreeing with you. Your thinking is obtuse -- we are approx. 1 year into a new drug launch. Their results are right where they should be and their tier 2 coverage is a shock, to be quite frank, shockingly progressive and favorable.
    11 Aug 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Danburydude
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    People, people , people. If you walked into a room with a large flashing neon sign that read, ' GSK Buyout Coming " , would you ignore it ? I think many folks are worrying about the day to day price actions , and missing what is about to occur.
    Look at what is happening. The cost to produce Vascepa is about to drop. Profit margins are going to increase significantly . When ANCHOR is approved, the restrictions on AMRN will go away, but the restrictions will go onto the competition. Who has the most to lose with that ? Why, that pesky ol' GSK.
    Lovaza will be the more expensive drug, and be restricted. Sales will fall off, and that is revenue that cannot be replaced. The Tier 2 coverage will just accelerate the sales of AMRN.
    The first year under MARINE will be over. You cannot blame an acquiring company for sitting back and waiting. Let AMRN go through the growing pains . A smart move economically. Let AMRN do all the heavy lifting. AMRN will have put in the expense of fighting patents, securing supply , starting market penetration, continued REDUCE It studies, and preparing for ANCHOR approval while an acquiring company incurs none of these development costs. After ANCHOR approval, all an acquiring company has to do is step right in and start selling the product.
    Now let us look at this from the GSK perspective. You have everything in place to ramp up sales of Vascepa quickly. Just throw it in as a new and improved Lovaza. Profits should show up almost from day one with Vascepa. If the rumors of a sales force starting to be trained for ANCHOR are true, you also get a trained sales force ready to hit the ground running on day one.
    Why GSK ? I have long felt they are behind the dirty tricks. The protracted fight with the FDA .Smearing of Vascepa. I have long felt that GSK is the company that has been telling the hit blogger what to write. The motive of GSK is to preserve Lovaza as long as possible. There are millions and millions of reasons for GSK to bash AMRN down. By the way, has anyone noticed that GSK has eased the pressure on the FDA, and the hit blogger has been strangely quiet about AMRN ? Don't for a second believe that is just coincidence. By keeping AMRN away from NCE , GSK has kept other companies from acquiring AMRN at the asking price that AMRN wants. Now that GSK is ready for a buy out, look for some pressure for AMRN to acquire NCE, just in time for GSK to swoop in. It sure looks like that was the GSK plan for awhile.
    I actually found the five points that JZ kept referring to in the conference call interesting. You could almost call them the five things GSK directed AMRN to do in order for GSK to buy them out.
    There is always the chance AMRN will go it alone. There are signs that could happen. But I just don't believe JZ was brought in to run a company long term. This company was built first and foremost to be bought out. Go it alone would be messier, and take longer to realize significant gains. However, the financial gains would be much higher within a few years. Some people prefer that route, but I maintain a high probability of a GSK buy out before I start shoveling snow.
    11 Aug 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • chunk713
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Danbury- Could not agree more or said it any better. That letter last week from GSK to FDA on the citizens petiton clears the path for Amarin to get NCE. I believe your suspicions about GSK and the hit blogger are right on. The tide is turning for Amarin slowly but surely. Some interesting times are just ahead. Great post!!!
    11 Aug 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Maiwat
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    Danbury, great summary and speculation. Your post should probably be bookmarked and returned to 8 months from now. Having been through the GSK/HGSI buyout, I also see similarities. I give your scenario a 40% chance possibility. Hope you are correct!
    11 Aug 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • xtramieinvest
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    thanks for the insight...retail investors are hungry for comments that truly spell out insight,,, great concept concerning the great 5 ...... not like those of pirate, maiwat,, who just come on this blog to have remarks that are negative towards the author....and yet try and say they are not,,,, even though their own words say different... thanks again mr.dandude
    11 Aug 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    A couple points about your posts, xtramieinvest. None of my posts have been "against" Steve's articles or blog posts. I like and appreciate Steve's articles and his insight. I appreciate his opinions, experience and thoughts on Amarin. While it might be tough to discern that in written media, it is nonetheless true.
    I'm not sure what experience you have in have in life but I can tell you that being a "yes man" lapdog doesn't get you very far personally or professionally. True opinion leaders or leaders of any kind should welcome challenges unless they are very insecure, weak in their positions or pathologically narcissistic. Questioning a position is not disrespectful. Rather it is a signal that the challenger is interested and thoughtful enough to do so.
    You have offered zero to the discussion except for an attempt to create a drama where none exists.

     

    I think Steve is a sharp and educated enough guy to see that I'm not here to simply try and break his stones. We are on the same side.
    12 Aug 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Danburydude
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Maiwat, if you go back 8 months, you can see I said the plan was to get ANCHOR approved and reap a higher buy out price. However, in my post on Christmas Eve, I said the buy out would happen before the NFL kicked off this football season. I also said the Lions and Eagles would have a new coach.
    At the time, I thought the PDUFA date would be earlier than it actually is. And who knew the Lions were going go get a quality running back that fits their offensive system instead of getting rid of the coach ?
    So if you bookmarked my Christmas Eve post, you can see I am one right, one wrong, and one still to be determined, lol.
    11 Aug 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • jackster101
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Steve-

     

    Can you explain why all the "genuine" analysts have significantly lowered their price targets and extended their lowered target out a yr! - do you think they're all wrong? You are the ONLY one that keeps saying that the launch is going well- what are you smoking?

     

    I don't even want to hear about Aegis and the $35 target based on huge Anchor sales in 2014- I mean C'mon!
    12 Aug 2013, 03:04 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » actually, aegis lowered to $30. only 3 analyst account for anchor now, $18, $20 and $30, the others dont, plain and simple.
    13 Aug 2013, 03:41 AM Reply Like
  • Attm
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    The others don't account for for a reason, Steve. By the way, ACST's phase 2 trial has very impressive results, something to worry, huh?
    13 Aug 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • jackster101
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Citi IS accounting for Anchor. They have a PT of $11!!!!!
    13 Aug 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Very impressive? Looked inferior to Vascepa in terms of trig lowering. I haven't delved into the particulars in any depth but ACST is no threat to Vascepa. Years and years behind us.
    13 Aug 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No, they aren't actually.
    13 Aug 2013, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ACST's / NEPT results don't mean diddly, the trial design is poor and the material cannot be commercialized for Rx.
    13 Aug 2013, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • xtramieinvest
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    this sector is very demanding.. and yes.. their are "genuine" analysts out there in the area of WS... I caution to please be careful of the mm.. I mean C

     

    great comment..j101.. please be careful of all the "GENUINE" analysts who live in the world of ws .... and there are plenty of mm who claim to have that title.. do your dd and im sure that you will see..that this product and the market that it serves is well needed.. and just to respond.. from what I have read recently.. I really don't think that ALL those analysts have downgraded..and one last comment... and I have done my dd for quite some time and I think this product could easily be worth 10 billion in 5 years.. and I don't smoke...

     

    14 Aug 2013, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • @pharmdca
    , contributor
    Comments (400) | Send Message
     
    Jackster101,
    Well, if you follow any stock you will see how analysts up or lower their estimates back and forth. Pick any stock and see how analysts jump back and forth. Classic example aapl: estimates going up and up and then earnings miss and estimates going down and if their earnings improve there estimates go up too. Same thing with amrn and once sales improve, more visibility, anchor gets approved and nce decision handed by fda then watch how things change quickly for amrn and how quickly their estimates change in no matter of time.
    12 Aug 2013, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • BellaSixPack
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    What is your take on ACST's phase 2 trial results?
    13 Aug 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • framus_morrigan
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    ACST has a phase 2. Years away from a NDA approval.
    Vascepa is in the market and very well protected.
    13 Aug 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • jackster101
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    What other "similar" products is Wainwright talking about??

     

    "Shares of drug maker Amarin (AMRN) are climbing after H.C. Wainwright analyst Andrew Fein upgraded the stock. WHAT'S NEW: Amarin's stock is likely to climb soon, as investors start to anticipate that the FDA will approve the company's Vascepa drug for patients with multiple lipid disorders, Fein wrote in a note to investors. Developed from omega 3 fatty acids, Vascepa reduces fat in the blood. Amarin's shares should rise towards the $8-$10 range in anticipation of a positive decision from the FDA, according to Fein, who thinks that the agency is "highly likely" to grant its approval. The agency is supposed to issue its decision on the drug in December, and an FDA panel is slated to issue a recommendation on the application in October, the analyst noted. The panel is very likely to recommend approval of Vascepa, added Fein. On the other hand, the analyst does not expect Amarin to partner with another company on Vascepa. Such a partnership would be much more beneficial for the company than FDA approval, he contended. Furthermore, Vascepa will likely have to compete with a number of similar products, the analyst wrote. Nonetheless Fein upgraded Amarin to Buy from Hold. with a $10 price target. TODAY'S PRICE ACTION: In early trading, Amarin rose 18c, or 3.5%, to $5.50"
    13 Aug 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Samuel-
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    so that's why the stock is up today...
    thanks for sharing
    13 Aug 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Would appear that Mr. Fein knows very little about AMRN or the mixed dyslipidemia market. Other than that, I'll take his "buy" recommendation and raise him one.
    13 Aug 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Agree with that.
    13 Aug 2013, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • jackster101
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Jeffries notes today on AMRN:

     

    Amarin Corporation (AMRN)
    Minimal Impact To Our AMRN Thesis From
    CaPre Data
    Key Takeaway
    Data from an open-label Phase 2 trial of purified omega-3 CaPre showed the 4g dose yielding a 21.6% reduction in triglycerides at Week 8 in patients with mild to severe hypertriglyceridemia. Despite a favorable efficacy profile, including improvements in cholesterol, we expect CaPre to have minimal impact on Vascepa sales, as we anticipate cardiovascular outcomes data by the time of CaPre’s potential launch.
    CaPre Hits Primary Endpoint In Phase 2 Hypertriglyceridemia Trial. Acasti (ACST, Not Covered) reported positive results from its Canadian open-label, dose-ranging COLT Phase 2 trial in patients with mild to severe hypertriglyceridemia (>200 mg/dL) of its lead product candidate CaPre, an omega-3 supplement derived from krill oil. Specifically, the trial met its primary endpoint with 4g CaPre demonstrating a statistically significant 18.1% reduction in mean triglyceride level compared to standard of care. As a reminder, in March, interim data were reported from the 157 patients enrolled in the COLT study who had been treated with 0.5-4g of CapRe for four weeks and achieved statistically significant reductions in triglyceride of up to 23% compared to standard of care. In the recent data, 4g CaPre resulted in a 15.5% mean triglyceride reduction from baseline at Week 4 and a 21.6% reduction at Week 8 and suggested mean triglyceride changes of +2.6% and -7.3% for standard of care at weeks 4 and 8, an improvement attributed to changes in lipid lowering medication adjustment. Additionally, 4g CaPre resulted in a median reduction of -8.3% LDL and -14.3% non-HDL and an interesting increase in HDL cholesterol of 11.1% relative to standard of care at week 8. The mechanism of action for these lipid changes is not currently well understood. There were no serious adverse events reported and data suggested that patients on CaPre showed a lower incidence of adverse events compared to the standard of care.
    COLT Data Difficult To Compare With ANCHOR. On an absolute basis, the 21.6% reduction observed with 4g CaPre is roughly comparable to the 21.5% reduction observed after 12 weeks of treatment with the 4g Vascepa dose in the ANCHOR trial (23% in patients with baseline TG of 200-499). That said, we note key differences in the study populations as ANCHOR enrolled patients with mixed dyslipidemia (TG: 200-499mg/dL on statin therapy), whereas COLT enrolled a wider range of baseline TG (200-887mg/dL), of which 88% fit the ANCHOR TG criteria (200-500mg/dL). Better TG reductions tend to be observed with higher baseline TG, so the 12% of COLT patients with TG>500 would skew the comparison between COLT and ANCHOR. In addition, we note that CaPre was not blinded and background medications adjustments appear to have been allowed, but detailed data on these background regimen changes has yet to be presented.
    Given CaPre Lag And Timing Of Vascepa Cardiovascular Trial Readout, We See Minimal Impact To AMRN. Even if these early signs of efficacy bear out in the double- blind placebo controlled Phase 2 TRIFECTA study in 1H14, we believe CaPre will still face a considerable lag behind Vascepa. While CaPre may have an intriguing profile with respect to favorable LDL cholesterol and HDL cholesterol changes (Vascepa has not demonstrated any effect on HDL), we note that a key deciding factor in the market size and market share could be driven by data from the ongoing REDUCE-IT trial, AMRN’s cardiovascular outcomes trial that was designed to satisfy a post-marketing requirement. If REDUCE-IT data are positive, we believe they could help conclusively link Vascepa use to improved cardiovascular outcomes and drive Vascepa sales. We remain generally bullish on Vascepa prospects and believe a favorable panel for ANCHOR in October and label expansion in December could catalyze near term upside for shares.
    14 Aug 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • jackster101
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    The CaPre data is impressive- not sure why Steve discounts ACST as a solid competitor down the road.
    14 Aug 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Pirateescapee
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Another nice day for Amarin. Volume precedes price and it is nice to see a jump in both. We put in a solid bottom.
    14 Aug 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Let's just say I have a thorough understanding about krill (the material, in general) and the company (NEPT). I would not spend a penny on either at this juncture, and it has nothing to do with AMRN. If I felt it was a viable material in Rx, I would be investing too. I sold shares of NEPT approx. 1.5 years ago and have never looked back since.
    14 Aug 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • framus_morrigan
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Amarin investor presentation has been updated.
    "FDA Exclusivity Determination" has been removed from milestones list.
    Curious ....
    16 Aug 2013, 05:35 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AMRN will receive NCE
    16 Aug 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Attm
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    today?
    16 Aug 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • rml360
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Steve, can you find out if the removal of NCE determination means the decision is coming sooner or did they decide to take it off due to all the questions they have been getting or not knowing when the decision will be made, so they removed it from the presentation
    16 Aug 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You'll know after 2pm.
    16 Aug 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Romon
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Yes today
    16 Aug 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (765) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » actually folks the exclusivity (OB) update did NOT come out yet. let's see what happens Monday.
    17 Aug 2013, 04:06 AM Reply Like
  • joe gerant
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Ok, it's Wednesday now, any ideas why the FDA is taking longer than usual on this month's update? It's not like there were any holidays the past few weeks.
    21 Aug 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • permann
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    My WAG is Sept update. RSUs were given to CEO, president and lead general counsel on 7/26 for meeting certain performance criteria. Guessing that the criteria met was NCE
    18 Aug 2013, 08:23 PM Reply Like
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