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Mr. Rosenman has nearly 15-years executive experience in the health and wellness sectors, including weight loss, cosmetics skincare and nutrition, both Rx and OTC. Expertise areas include strategic market and product planning and corporate development (evaluation, recommendation and execution of... More
  • Amarin's Stock Price Movement 22 comments
    Aug 16, 2013 12:31 PM | about stocks: AMRN

    I cannot tell you how many messages I have received asking what is up with Amarin's positive price movement.

    My question back is "are you really surprised--we have a $25+ stock selling for pennies on the dollar?"

    Folks, with the move that's coming there are only 3 plays, you are either in, out or dead if your caught short.

    Stocks: AMRN
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Comments (22)
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  • Yes, but wait is this always the case for the past year?
    16 Aug 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Still haven't learned, have you? "if your caught short." - should be "if YOU'RE caught short."
    16 Aug 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • There are some big traders on my end that are starting to move in on AMRN. We will inch up to mid 7s where the battle will begin around the 200 day average. The traders I am in touch with do not care to get AMRN on the bottom as long as they get it on the way up. These guys do not sit on dead money and they buy in big. They are agree that AMRN has bottomed out. So it seems AMRN is getting back on the radar. We have an exciting 60-90 days ahead...no pun intended. lol
    17 Aug 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mannkind was trading at a 3 billion cap which is about 2 years behind where AMRN is at this stage. Amrn with an 800m cap low 5s....No brainer for me as I unloaded Mannkind and kept loading on AMRN.

     

    Amrn has a 10b drug. Once they run trial for other indications this could be the Finistride/ Propecia. Once they discovered that Finistride cuts down on hair loss they made a new pill with a different dose and different color yet the same thing. So basically in the long run Vascepa could be branched of into many drugs for various issues such A1C reduction and Dry Eyes. If BP wait for anchor approval there is no way they will sell for under 30 per share. Off course I would take 15 tomorrow but honestly we would make way more money in 3-4 years that will make 15 looks like childs play.
    17 Aug 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Investing is a business where you can look very silly for a meaningful period of time before you are proven right. Bill Ackman
    17 Aug 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Yes I looked silly holding 1000 contracts of MNKD for over a year till it went from 2 to 8 in a matter of months.

     

    I have also held AMRN for a quite a while but expect the same results. We might be wrong on the timing of things sometimes but the only thing that matters if that we are proven right in the end.
    17 Aug 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Good post on ihub pasted below

     

    "The range of off label use by Lovaza is 30-70 percent. Nobody knows the number. Last number I heard was 50 but could be as high as 70.

     

    Though that helps understand the slower uptake in Vascepa it also opens up the big NEGATIVE: Marine and Anchor markets are nowhere near the 4 and 40 billion numbers mentioned.

     

    Lovaza was clearly marketed from day 1 as:
    1)The only type drug in the market
    2)Being useable in Anchor indication
    3)A drug with large sales force and zero competitors

     

    ...and they get 300 million Marine and 700 million Anchor?
    ...or 500 million marine and 500 million Anchor?

     

    Seems for Very High Trig sales should be 1 billion alone with a 4 billion market.

     

    There has to be less Anchor prescriptions from Lovaza than there would be if they were approved for the indication. We have had some ancedotal evidence that some doctors are unaware that Lovaza failed to get approval for Anchor.

     

    So it seems you have a higher market potential in US of 1 billion since Lovaza does that and some doctors likely don't prescribe in Anchor due to non-approval. But how many?

     

    I think you get an upside of peak sales near 2 billion(WHICH ALIGNS WITH MOST ANALYSTS). Still makes it a $30-40 stock if they can maintain that over years but nowhere near the 44 Billion market. The company has stated only 5-6% of High trig patients are on medication and clearly they believe they can sell to increase that # but that remains to be seen.

     

    I do believe that with ReduceIt positive results it changes everything because at that point it's proven preventative medicine with no side effects. At that point upside for peaks ales is easily 10 billion and possibly 20 billion.

     

    However, without Reduce It I think the Lovaza sales show the upside for sales figures in US is closer to 1-2 billion than 4-6 billion.

     

    Which, again, is fine, as stock price will be much higher but to get the large stock price numbers near $100 a share plus it's all on Reduce It, and failure of Reduce It would end all upside."
    18 Aug 2013, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • LOL! Wouldn't know where to begin here. There are so many assumptions as to make the entire diatribe pointless and useless.
    Lovaza and Vascepa are different drugs. They have different efficacy profiles. They have different safety profiles. They have different side effect profiles. Secondly, the MARINE market is heavily occupied. Niaspan and fenofibrates have a large part of that market.
    Finally, no matter the number of Lovaza scripts written in the ANCHOR indication, GSK could never exploit this market to anywhere near its full potential because Lovaza is not approved for the indication. Overt marketing by GSK for the ANCHOR market is verboten.
    It also helps to remember that Lovaza doesn't have a JELIS "like" trial to back up any "under the table" marketing in the ANCHOR indication. If anything, Lovaza is more closely aligned with all the "fish oil" studies that have shown no benefits in reducing cardiac events, however flawed (or not) the studies may be.

     

    How this goes will depend upon the execution of Amarin mgt or whoever ends up with the Vascepa franchise. It'll have little to do with how much Lovaza has been sold by GSK in the MARINE or ANCHOR markets.
    18 Aug 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Well said Pirate. The statin combo also will add a great deal to both the market size (roughly double the Anchor market) and the bottom line. Good things coming!!
    18 Aug 2013, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Will blast into the teens...then all those people who said a $5 stock cannot be $25+ will shut their mouths and cry that they didn't buy this winning lottery ticket.
    19 Aug 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • I really think that with all of this companies possibilities (anchor, reduce it, statin combos etc) that even $30 a share is way too little. I hope that if the company gets bought out that it has future achievements with bonus pay if certain end points are meet. If as I have read this drug could become a $5 million plus a year seller then $30 a share is a steal
    20 Aug 2013, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • How much do we gain on NCE approval?
    19 Aug 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • load up on very undervalued pps, extremely low priced shares now and wait for anchor.. nce approval,, or not, means nothing at this point..long and strong amrn..
    19 Aug 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Any ideas why the FDA didn't update their Orange Book as of today? Are there no restrictions on when they have to meet deadlines?
    19 Aug 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • The FDA has no restrictions on the OB, they can skip the whole month if they desire.

     

    I'm thinking the Ad Com, & NCE got bumped up the chain of command.
    19 Aug 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, apparently so. I emailed the FDA yesterday afternoon about it, and wasn't expecting much of a response considering I'm just a retail investor and not a hedge fund or a big pharma who could pocket them some cash to speed up or slow down decisions.

     

    But they did respond to me around 5 yesterday and said, "The monthly update goal for the Electronic Orange Book (EOB) is by the end of the following month's second full work week. Please note this is a target date and that the EOB may be updated before or after this target date. We ask that you check the EOB regularly for any updates. "

     

    So yeah, they obviously can just update it when they feel like it. I wouldn't think they would just update it in two months and just skip an entire month of updating it... But then again, it is the FDA.
    20 Aug 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I have never seen this before...
    19 Aug 2013, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • Its probably making its way around the building like the letter they wrote a gazillion months ago........
    20 Aug 2013, 05:49 AM Reply Like
  • Saw this on yahoo.. Would live to hear Steve's thoughts on the $6 billion figure

     

    I read a recent article that PFE decided to discontinue its cardiovascular pipeline in 2008 after a couple of failures and decided to focus on oncology due to greater profitability. This brings me to AMGN's recent purchase of ONXX for $10.5 bil or $125 per share. While I thought it would be worth more (possibly (140), the company has two approved cancer drugs and a third in Phase III trials that was the gem AMGN was seeking. If ONXX "only" received 10.5 bil, what does this say about the prospects of Vascepa and a possible $6 bil deal? It's a known fact cancer drugs fetch a greater premium and its certainly unfair to directly compare the 2 companies. I'm concerned that 28-32 share or $6 bil. that SR touts might be an over estimate. BTW, I owned 1,000 shares of ONXX until 2008 and sold for 35. Looking back, I could kick myself!
    25 Aug 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Jack, just because someone says 6B, does not mean the company MUST GET THE APPROPRIATE BO offer NOW. Tomorrow if a new analyst comes up and says 60B? Then what? Forget about any BO until 2016. JoeZ is not interested in selling AMRN for dirt. GIA+ANCHOR is in the best interests of the company and the long term shareholders. And that is how it is going to be.
    3 Sep 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • AMRN is set to GIA after ANCHOR approval. That is the best news that REAL longs wanted to hear. A premature BO would have killed shareholder value. Good job JZ.
    30 Aug 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • the OB delay last update was ascribed simply to a glitch in FDA's new software, per FDA Law blog. Interesting but basically useless as FDA still has not done their job and duty to render a decision on V. The rest of the recent FDALAW blog article is worth a read as it dissects the first stereoisomer / enantiomer API granted NCE with a past racemate already approved , and conditions tied to that act (with the enantiomer approved only July 2013 ... hows that for a slap?) Still not Amarin helpful.
    2 Sep 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
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