Seeking Alpha

Steve Rosenman's  Instablog

Steve Rosenman
Send Message
Mr. Rosenman has nearly 15-years executive experience in the health and wellness sectors, including weight loss, cosmetics skincare and nutrition, both Rx and OTC. Expertise areas include strategic market and product planning and corporate development (evaluation, recommendation and execution of... More
  • Amarin Initiated With BUY At Suntrust $15PT 20 comments
    Sep 4, 2013 9:29 AM | about stocks: AMRN

    Suntrust starts AMRN with BUY and $15 short term price target, citing traction on Vascepa launch and likelihood of wider indication expansion. Does not fully bake wider indication in price target at this time.

    Amarin set to soar, my 12-mo target remains $28-32, with AMRN scoring NCE and ultimately being acquired by a larger pharma company.

    Stocks: AMRN
Back To Steve Rosenman's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (20)
Track new comments
  • Based on your past AMRN posts, your target seems to always be a "rolling" 12-month target. hahaha
    4 Sep 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Steve with the future potential of this drug dont you think $28-32 is too low? i agree with your 12 month target but do you have an extended target past 12 months? if this company is acquired do you think an agreement will be in place that when certain milestones are made more money will be paid out? would like to know your thoughts....thanks
    4 Sep 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » golf- I see your point, but my opinion is AMRN doesn't make it to the longer term on its wont have the ability to get to the $40-50 range that a full Marine/Reduce-It onslaught would allow
    4 Sep 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • If NCE is granted I could see JZ doing another capital raise to pay off the loan and go all the way. Improving margins and sales should be around the corner (2014). Amarin has done all the heavy lifting already by fielding a sales force, building IP and getting formulary penetration.


    I suppose it just depends on how bad BP wants Amarin. I personally prefer the bird in hand scenario at 28-32/share but I'm not JZ and I have no idea what is going on behind the scenes. A 10% capital raise(in the teens) would be more than enough to get it done and would only have us at 215 mil shares fully diluted. Risky? Sure. However like I said before if REDUCE-IT comes through, a 7 billion dollar price tag won't cover the price of admission. Even with 215 mil shares a 7bil valuation still gets you to $32/share. Thats why I said I don't believe they sell it this year. JZ will take ANCHOR on the road with tier 2 coverage and drive it awhile to see how it handles. No reason not to.
    4 Sep 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • thanks for the responses, i have to think that if i am on this board contemplating offers that it has to include some royalties in the future. as i already said $30 a share could end up being a steal in my opinion...
    4 Sep 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Thats the other possibility. A buyout now in the 28-32 range with CVRs to account for sales and REDUCE-IT. Not out of the question.
    4 Sep 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • One of the great things about the adcom will be the discussion and dissemination of important information about the effects of pure EPA that have been glossed over by investors and analysts alike. We can't buy that type of advertising and publicity. The Japanese have so many positive studies on the effects of EPA it is mind boggling and yet not ONE analyst has covered this in any depth. Once this information becomes more widely known, I hope we begin to see the mainstream press cover it. That is when Amarin will really fly. As of now a great many who write about Vascepa are still referring to it as a "cholesterol" drug ,lol.
    4 Sep 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
    I've covered the broader benefits, yeah, it isn't all about Trigs & LDL-C, but you'd never know it from our spoon-fed media outlets who headline PFE funded studies from Italy using small doses of EPA/DHA.
    6 Sep 2013, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • Yes you have and you are the only one that has put the pieces of the puzzle together.
    6 Sep 2013, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • There are several "crucial" decision points. The first one is around December expansion of label to Anchor and how they launch that. If they partner, and they should partner, then that partner is the clear front runner to buy AMRN completely down the road.


    The next major time frame would be end of 2014 as that is the BO time frame that makes the most sense. I find it hard for a BP to justify a 5 billion+ BO with a company that has 40 million in 2013 sales. However, if they get to end of 2014 sales should be much, much higher, they would be as close as 2 years from Reduce It results at that time. Too far for AMRN to want to wait it out but close enough for BP to want to buy in. Stock price should be higher then also which makes BO premium not so large.


    If the do not partner and get to end 2014 then i could see a scenario where they dilute to get to end 2016 and wait for Reduce It results. I think that it is a plausible scenario though partnering for Anchor is, by far, the best approach. It still remains to be seen if they can conclude a partner deal that AMRN can live with for Anchor launch.


    But I do believe any BO scenario will not play out until 2nd half 2014.
    5 Sep 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Nicely laid out yet something is missing in the translation here. At 5501 scripts in the latest week, AMRN is on a pace for $50M/yr. By the end of 2013 they should be on a trajectory for $100M/yr. With ANCHOR approval, by the end of 2014 they will be on about a $1B/yr pace. That's worth a whole lot more than a $5B purchase price. The only thing holding back scripts at this point is insurance resistance and that is changing quickly. Most insurance companies prefer to wait until a drug is out a full year before changing their formularies. There is nothing in the Vascepa data to discourage them from adding the drug at tier 2 at that point while the ATP 4 findings will cause an equal and opposite reaction towards Lovaza.
    8 Sep 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Incredible this "pharma world" . Just 2-3 months ago this stock was a piece of sh..., CEO should be in jail, "fish oil" this, "prostate cancer" that .....


    And now we are not discussing about if ANCHOR will be approved, only when BO will happen!!
    5 Sep 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Amarin has been an emotional roller coaster. If you look at the chart starting in Oct 2010, the swings have been huge and to go along with it so have the emotions.


    Today we have euphoria over a $ 7.15/share price. Add $20.00 to that and I'll be real happy, lol !
    5 Sep 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Are we still looking at $28-32? LOL


    Back to the $6s we go!
    12 Sep 2013, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Who did not see generic Lovaza coming that has spent anytime investing in AMRN. The sell off is way overdone imo. GSK will really need to look at AMRN now with the generic coming, they can compete with Marine although with a drug that has warnings but on an Anchor level they are just by standers. Reduce It should just put it all to rest...grab some at the discounted level, its a gift and yes 20's will be here before you know it.
    13 Sep 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Reiterate $28-32, even more conviction on the price target now that court ruling (if it holds up) will direct strategic players to AMRN (now AZN, GSK and Teva must be compelled to go after the superior drug to lock up the market strategy - more info coming with a full article...)


    The surprise is not that GSKs patents were overturned this week; the surprise a while back was that they weren't... AMRN's patent estate and product definition totally different. Major win for AMRN investors in terms of how this all plays out.
    13 Sep 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • It was ProNova who took Teva and Par to court, so what will BASF (who bought ProNova) do now? GSK was just a bystander.
    13 Sep 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • ...........start supplying the generics with plenty of fish oil?
    13 Sep 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Not sure if BASF supply agreement with Amarin would allow for generics...
    13 Sep 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • I know a bunch of us are hoping you are right, Steve. Hanging in there, CC
    13 Sep 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.