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Steve Rosenman
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Mr. Rosenman has nearly 15-years executive experience in the health and wellness sectors, including weight loss, cosmetics skincare and nutrition, both Rx and OTC. Expertise areas include strategic market and product planning and corporate development (evaluation, recommendation and execution of... More
  • Explosive Bidding Situation Setting Up For Amarin 45 comments
    Sep 16, 2013 2:00 PM | about stocks: AMRN, TEVA, PFE, GSK, AZN

    Several recent developments flying under the radar right now:

    The patent appeal that is unfavorable to GSK presents three major strategic plays to acquire Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN):

    1. GSK main player - in order to defend against Lovaza revenue loss from potential future generics

    2. AZN back in as a suitor - in order to maintain a player in the Omega-3 space --the Lovaza generic ruling cancels out Omthera completely

    3. Teva now makes more sense - in order to lock up the Omega-3 drug class and price protect against other generic plays

    Also, AMRN has named Lipator as the stain agent to be patented with Vascepa. That means PFE prime suitor as well.

    I will reiterate my stand on NCE success, Anchor approval in December and a $28-32 short term (within 12-mo) price target.

    Stocks: AMRN, TEVA, PFE, GSK, AZN
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Comments (46)
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  • BiotechBillionair
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    Steve
    It gets even hotter! Direct link to Pfizer on Patent PAIRs, patent ap # 13/266,085. It lists Pfizer Manager John Mulhern on Electronic Patent App Transmittal 9-13-2013. Guessing this was an oversight by new Chicago law firm handling this patent. K&L Gates, David Fournier changed firms 3-2013, from K&L Gates to Perkins Cole. New Attorney at Perkins Cole, Randy Micheletti, seems to be leading the charge. His speciality is Omega 3's and statin derivatives.

     

    I'd be surprised if Amarin doesn't field a low ball offer before the real deal.

     

    Williams/Biobillion
    16 Sep 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Deep.Blue
    , contributor
    Comments (131) | Send Message
     
    Steve - obviously AZN knew that Pronova had already struck a deal to let Lovaza go generic in '15, so a year early wouldnt really affect whatever strategy they had in place for Omthera, would it?
    16 Sep 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • amrnBagHolder
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    I love your targets Steve. I don't agree with them, but I love them. I just hope we get to $9 or $10.00 someday. I am hoping after ANCHOR (hopefully approved) we get to $10.00. Than I am out. I can't take the silent treatment anymore from this management team. I really believe BIG PHARM is simply ignoring them knowing they can't sell their product and waiting for the PPS to be beaten down into another offering. GSK thinks they can buy this for $3.00 a share two years from now. Lovaza barely slowing down and thats when generics will finally be on the market. Its a waiting game and AMRN is loosing badly. They should sell for $12.00 RIGHT NOW, before its too late. Well, I have decided to wait until Dec 20th. Then I hope I can bail on this thing.
    16 Sep 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Danburydude
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Wow, reading that comment lowered my I Q a bit. What I will find interesting is the timing of the ANCHOR approval. It is scheduled for a Friday right before the Christmas holidays. There will be just a handful of days the market will be open before the New Year starts.
    The odds of a major buy out happening during the two holiday weeks would be lessened I would think. It will be interesting to see how people react right after the ANCHOR approval.
    There will be tax considerations. Do you sell right after ANCHOR, and pay taxes on your profits ? Do you hold going into the New Year and then sell, saving on year end taxes ? What if you do that, and then a buy out is announced the first few weeks of the New Year ? Even if the shorts drop the price, holding may be better than selling, and paying the taxes. You may come out ahead in that scenario.
    Shorts could be finding it troublesome. They would hate to short a catalyst, as there are just a few days between the catalyst and the New Year. They may try shorting, only to be burned by a buy out right after the New Year.
    It should make for some interesting trading the last few weeks of the year.
    17 Sep 2013, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • see punjabi
    , contributor
    Comments (351) | Send Message
     
    AMRN bagholder:
    I hope you don't work for summer street since there target is close to your target. I think you should sell amrn tomorrow since it's going down.
    17 Sep 2013, 02:06 AM Reply Like
  • amrnBagHolder
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    Not sure when to sell.... I just hope Dec 20th brings us good news. I guess if we don't get anchor, it would be wise to sell this year for losses. If we get it, why not wait until Jan 1st. My point is, I am not waiting around for JZ to break the GIA news after anchor.
    17 Sep 2013, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • amrnBagHolder
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    Do you think its going down, then you should sell... I am hoping it jumps to 9 or 10 after anchor. Take my small profits and leave JZ behind..... I am sure it will drop back down to 5 after he announces GIA for anchor... Maybe he will add another 5 or 10 sales reps. Too funny. Everyone knows he needs to get this drug to a company that can sell it. Otherwise we are going nowhere. Just check the scripts weekly. We are not adding enough to get this PPS going. face it...
    17 Sep 2013, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sell for $12 RIGHT NOW? Please, don't start your own business. Would you sell a product that addresses at least 1/3 of the US population at 50-80% margins for $12...
    17 Sep 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • amrnBagHolder
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    If I couldn't sell it to 1/3 of the US population and somebody else could, then yes I would sell. That would work out for both of us. We have the product - they have the sales force. There has to be a middle...
    17 Sep 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » it's worth $50+ fully realized but that would take some time. saying $12 is almost silly, like you're not even paying attention to what amrn has.
    17 Sep 2013, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • birdcage
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Steve,

     

    Here is a great read I found on ihub and it proves why we are all in this for it true value.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/16v2J4k

     

    Conclusion
    Dyerberg and colleagues examined the relationship between EPA and CVD, and the JELIS study recently demonstrated that EPA administration reduces the risk of CVD. An important difference between EPA and DHA is the metabolism of EPA to bioactive PGI3. It is assumed that, similar to PGI2, PGI3 inhibits platelet aggregation, vascular contraction, myocardial ischemic injury and arteriosclerosis and induces neoangiogenesis.

     

    Therefore, it is speculated that the CVD risk reduction induced by EPA is also associated with the effects of PGI3 in addition to the numerous effects of EPA itself (such as TG reduction, inflammation inhibition and improvements in plasma membrane fluidity).

     

    This hypothesis is confirmed by the following findings: an increased CVD risk was found to be associated with a reduction in the EPA/AA ratio, and the EPA/AA ratio was found to be positively correlated with the (PGI2+PGI3)/TXA2 ratio.
    24 Sep 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • deepankr
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Steve,

     

    Good points. I regularly follow your opinion, and am long on AMRN. Just wondering though, would you have a somewhat more specific timeline for your price target of 28-32? It seems to me that you have been saying a one-year target for a while now, so the target date keeps changing. Just wanted to hear from you if you think it would be the 2nd, 3rd or the 4th quarter in 2014. I have been more of a silent reader of your notes, but your analysis makes good sense, and I really appreciate your research.

     

    Thanks,
    DR
    16 Sep 2013, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have not been good with timing on potential BO or FDA decision on NCE, but you cannot blame me for FDA lunacy :-)

     

    I believe BO before end of year, or close to approval of Anchor shortly thereafter...those are my personal targets and I hope they get realized.
    17 Sep 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Teebonekrusher
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Steve, I am a long time follower and first time poster. Would you please be so kind as to offer a few thoughts regarding the upcoming adcom. Do you see a possibility that the panel will be asked by the fda as whether or not reduce-it should run to completion before approval? Do you see the convening of a panel as more of a formality since this snda is for a never before approved indication in a large patient population? I am looking forward to any thoughts that you care to offer and the upcoming article. TIA!!!
    16 Sep 2013, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Adcom is a lock, we are under SPA and the request letter from FDA was clean. Yet, the trading DOES NOT FACTOR IN APPROVAL, despite what that pathetic Goldman Sachs analyst report (issued today) suggests...but hey, we know how good Goldman is doing, right? (that was me being VERY sarcastic)
    17 Sep 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • ringbellplease
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    Steve doesn't really know what he's talking about. No way this is going to 28-32!
    16 Sep 2013, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We will see.
    17 Sep 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yeah, too much past Amarin/Pfizer connection to look past the writing on the wall.
    16 Sep 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • User 15225802
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Hey SR ! I agree to all statements but its spelled Lipitor !
    16 Sep 2013, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yeah, sorry - that won't be the last spelling error.
    17 Sep 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • ringbellplease
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    Here's what I'm concerned about.

     

    I feel that individuals in the high triglycerides group that are in the low range ie 150-250 approx. may not be advised by their physicians to take a TGL lowering drug and instead may be told to modify their diet.
    On another note, can Lovaza still be prescribed off label for the Anchor population if Vascepa gets approved? Or do the insurance companies immediately deny coverage?
    17 Sep 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • mimosttr
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Steve,
    A week or so back you said you would have a new article coming out with some new information regarding Amarin. Is that article still forthcoming? I'm assuming this wasn't it.
    17 Sep 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, since there have been so new developments I had been holding to include that info. I was also away on vacation...
    18 Sep 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • see punjabi
    , contributor
    Comments (351) | Send Message
     
    Steve,
    I know your predictions didn't match with management initial missteps; however, this is wall street that deals with tons of manipulation, negative coverage for individual equities and manipulation at its best; therefore, no need to explain your targets to bashers since there main target is to bash the company. I know where amrn will be heading with anchor, reduce it population once approved. These are daytraders that bet their money from month to month with options and stock thinking to become rich soon, but that's not how wall street works. A good investor has to have patience and patience in amrn stock will bring good rewards in the end. With postitive reduce it study, this drug will be targeted for a population that is even bigger than anchor as a preventive therapy.
    Holding stock and adding more. No worries.
    18 Sep 2013, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • Attm
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    AZN's epanova is accepted and has a PDUFA date May 4, 2014. Did you predict its application was NOT going to be accepted, Steve?
    18 Sep 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This was widely known. It's also known they can only go after Marine indication, and they are inferior to Vascepa and may now compete directly w/ Lovaza generic (read: no reimbursement for Epanova at all, especially given free fatty acid for more expensive than Lovaza brand)
    18 Sep 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • BiotechWill
    , contributor
    Comments (175) | Send Message
     
    Epanova's pricing to customers will be unlikely to exceed $4-10 for MARINE indication, or whatever generic Lovaza is priced for. The key to all of this is going to be the ANCHOR population initially, followed by REDUCE-IT - and the same time advantages that Lovaza enjoyed being first to market will be enjoyed by Vascepa in the cardio population. AZN combo studies are way behind already, not to mention AMRN already completed a combo study too. Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

     

    Like Steve, I always have trouble with the timing predictions (I thought GSK would take a swing last summer), but if you look at cash positions Pfizer seems likely. Then perhaps TEVA or AZN depending. GSK would be smart to do so, but I question the viability of their cash position despite the upside.
    18 Sep 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • rml360
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    Surprisingly, I don't think AZN will market Epanova for the high trigs market, I think they will get approval and combo it with crestor, and sell the combo drug when the patents expire--It would be a waste of money to market the same drug with a generic lovaza--there would be no incentive to switch to full price
    18 Sep 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • BiotechWill
    , contributor
    Comments (175) | Send Message
     
    Definitely concur on the combo play. Nothing else makes sense as a target, although I'm sure they would be happy to pick up scripts. The only play there is bioavailability, which unfortunately for AZN did not translate into efficacy.
    18 Sep 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • birdcage
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Okay rml360 and BiotechWill riddle me this,

     

    If AZN's big play is a combo drug then:

     

    1) How is AZN going to get around AMRN patents for a combo?

     

    2) Wouldn't you think in order to be able to have a combo pill
    consisting of Crestor which can be prescribed for any CHD
    patient. That Eponova would also have to be approved for any
    CHD patient. Therefore meaning Epanova would have to get
    the nod for Anchor and Reduce it (ain't happening).

     

    IMHO neither of these will happen and Epanova will be nothing more that another generic Lovaza for Marine only or worse yet a throw away.
    18 Sep 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • rml360
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    1) by submitting the combo, they automatically get 3 years of exclusivity, so even if they don't even get one patent, they get 3 years for free
    2) not necessarily, the fda might ask azn to do a small study to confirm that it works, then submit for nda, although you make a valid point, however one which azn I am sure thought of before they wrote a check for 500 million
    19 Sep 2013, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » rml360 - that is not accurate. AZn has real problems. first, they need to do clinical study with outcomes, just like AMRN. as you know, that takes time and there is no indication it will be meaningly successful right now. next, AMRN will be first to file in this area which can prevent AZN from getting any marketing exclusivity whatsoever.
    19 Sep 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Maiwat
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    It seems like AZN has wasted 3.5-5million if I understand the logic being written on this thread. Why on earth would a company spend that kind of money if the drug they are purchasing is dead on arrival into the market?

     

    I'm not asking this to be contentious...I'm just curious why executives from a BP would make this kind of decision given they have the same info and brains as the people of this thread. It doesn't make sense to me.
    19 Sep 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • birdcage
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Steve I agree with you 100% on this. AMRN has really positioned themselves very nicely to be the best answer here for the lucky suitor.
    19 Sep 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • joe gerant
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Seems like a question for AZN's executives... Joe Z certainly wasn't sure why they did it either in the last conference call.
    19 Sep 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » By the way, if you follow all my instablogs and acted on my CYCC recommendation, congrats. After the bell they reported anti-tumor activity in ovarian cancer. Stock should surge remainder of year.
    20 Sep 2013, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • repero
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    To be fair here the SP took a dive to as low as 2.8$ from the 5$-6$ range it was hen you posted about it
    20 Sep 2013, 05:33 AM Reply Like
  • Jolk
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    I'd like to know why it took a dive, it really wasn't anything to do with their results.
    20 Sep 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Rosenman
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Actually, to be fair, I recommended the stock at $1.50, then reiterated at $3 and change. After I wrote an article and some additional analyst coverage came on the stock it went to $5-6 then fell back.
    20 Sep 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Maiwat
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    Steve, I think your article heading should have started with "Implosion" and NOT "Explosion". AMRN acting very, very weak into Adcom runup. Maybe, just maybe there will not be any kind of approval and then buyout. What will you tell your readers? Will you apologize for all the bad advice?

     

    I doubt it but I thought I would ask.
    23 Sep 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • pwt750
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    I, for one, am overjoyed if we are witnessing the Death of the Run Up.
    Here's little hint ; when 'everybody' knows a secret ... it aint!. A couple years bio was dead, then the Run Up became the norm. My guess is that rug is being pulled.

     

    Like the housing bubble when people who didn't know which end of a hammer to hit or hold, but they were going to flip them a couple houses, jacking up prices on crummy shacks till the Wiley-Coyote-over-the-... moment that we all pay for to today.

     

    I watched one of the twitter gods clean & jerk ACAD a couple times for a couple dimes. Everyone praised the smart man. Actually he was leading 1000s into the name then dumping all over on his own sheep for relative peanuts. Yet I notice that conviction buyers, studying then suffering all that stress & derision before data, and under $2, are doing quite nicely today (I am talking to me here.)

     

    Of course I am worried too, but its about high time for a sea change, at least for awhile, where you have to do the DD, survey the sources, then white knuckle down and trust your own thoughts, rather than try to step off the train at a precise moment before the station ... walking over a bunch of other people's backs in the process.

     

    Maybe I'm a dreamer ... but I'm not the only one who happens to think the markets are intended to capitalize the development of good ideas and great products in capable hands, and not serve as coin dispenser for a mass of weak conviction players.
    23 Sep 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • rydad21
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    Big difference between advice and opinions...
    23 Sep 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Maiwat
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    Rydad21, it's a matter of semantics. When one states their "opinions" over and over and over AND deletes any messages that run counter to said opinions AND shoots out foul language to those who offer differing "opinions", it kind of becomes a blur between "advice" and "opinion".
    23 Sep 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • rydad21
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    How can you say any of this is anything but opinion? You yourself, in previous posts had indicated time lines have been changed, etc. etc. This in itself would lead one to believe that they are reading opinions, not advice.
    24 Sep 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • katd
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Steve, Really like your articles. Any idea when you will publish your next update? I think we could all use some good news. All the negative articles and the continuous downtrend is starting to get me very concerned. Thanks for all the good articles.
    23 Sep 2013, 12:49 AM Reply Like
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