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David Pinsen
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As the founder of Launching Innovation, David Pinsen has brought together a talented team of developers, designers, and academic finance experts to create easy-to-use tools to solve complex problems for investors. David Pinsen brings 17 years of business development, innovation, and financial... More
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  • Downside Protection For Celldex Therapeutics 2 comments
    Nov 8, 2013 11:33 PM | about stocks: CLDX, TSLA

    CLDX Misses On Earnings, Beats On Revenue

    Shares of Celldex Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CLDX) closed up 3.55% after reporting third quarter results that beat on revenue but missed on earnings, posting a larger loss per share than the analysts' consensus estimate. For investors looking to add downside protection on Friday, CLDX was too expensive to hedge against a greater-than-20% drop over the next several months using put protection, but it was possible to hedge using a collar.

    1) Hedging With Optimal Puts

    Uncapped upside, but unavailable in this case.

    As of Friday's close, it was too expensive to hedge CLDX against a greater-than-20% drop over the next several months with optimal puts* (i.e., taking into account the cost of the put protection, it wasn't possible to limit your losses to no greater than 20%).

    Because of that, we were presented with the error message above.

    2) Hedging With An Optimal Collar

    Pays you to hedge. 20% upside cap.

    If you were willing to cap your potential upside at 20% between now and May 16th, this was the optimal collar** to hedge 1000 shares of CLDX against a greater-than-20% drop over the same time frame.

    As you can see at the bottom of the screen capture above, the net cost of this collar was negative, meaning an investor would have gotten paid to hedge in this case.

    Note that, to be conservative, Portfolio Armor calculated the cost of this hedge by using the bid price of the call leg and the ask price of the put leg. In practice, you can often sell calls for more (at some price between the bid and ask) and buy puts for less (again, at some price between the bid and ask), so, in actuality, an investor opening the optimal collar above may have gotten paid more than $600 to hedge in this case.

    Possibly More Protection Than Promised

    In some cases, hedges such as the ones above can provide more protection than promised. For a recent example of that, see this post about hedging shares of Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA).

    *Optimal puts are the ones that will give you the level of protection you want at the lowest possible cost. Portfolio Armor uses an algorithm developed by a finance PhD to sort through and analyze all of the available puts for your stocks and ETFs, scanning for the optimal ones.

    **Optimal collars are the ones that will give you the level of protection you want at the lowest net cost, while not limiting your potential upside by more than you specify. The algorithm to scan for optimal collars was developed in conjunction with a post-doctoral fellow in the financial engineering department at Princeton University. The screen captures above come from the Portfolio Armor iOS app.

    Stocks: CLDX, TSLA
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Comments (2)
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  • kdII
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    What's your call on the price action Monday morning after data phase ii release? Will data be positive? thinking about opening a position.
    9 Nov 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • David Pinsen
    , contributor
    Comments (2118) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't know..
    9 Nov 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
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