Robert McDonald's  Instablog

Robert McDonald
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FROM INSIDE SILICON VALLEY: Sorting the truth or likely truth from the noise is a key attribute of the successful investor. My commentary is a distillation of some of this effort relative to particular stocks and investment areas. My publishing at this point in time is limited to the blogsphere,... More
    Jan 14, 2013 12:34 PM | about stocks: AAPL

    It is not over until the fat lady sings. In this case the fat lady is Apple management. Apple is in the quiet period leading up to the earnings report on Jan 23. I do not know what they can say if anything until then. If someone knows it would be good to hear.

    There is obviously the possibility of accelerating an iP5S, and maybe an iP5XYZ, the latter with a large screen. The lower cost iPhone may also be adding to the possible channel adjustments Robert Lieto has wisely pointed out

    I notice the market senses some alternative possibilities as well and the stock is holding at the recent low that occurred in November, approximately $505. This low occurred well before anyone knew about the magnitude of a possible slowdown being speculated on by the Nikkei, WSJ and Reuters.

    If this is a manipulation exercise there is lots of motivation and potential payback for market makers with OPEX including LEAP expiration this Friday. Many have been trapped expecting the stock to come back to some extent since the sell off began last October.

    I do not want to debate it further at this point in time as it is not the right priority, but there is no way Technical Analysis is reliable at forecasting what is going with Apple here, prior to this day, in the future or anytime.. You can see this in spades by all the futile effort Andy Zaky has put into using TA in his efforts to interpret market sentiment and likely possible outcomes since the sell off began (I am a paid subscriber to Bullish Cross). And of course there is the daily patter on Twitter/Stocktwits.and displays of chart art that change every day to make up a new story. I call it entropy at work.

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

    Stocks: AAPL
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