Robert McDonald's  Instablog

Robert McDonald
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FROM INSIDE SILICON VALLEY: Sorting the truth or likely truth from the noise is a key attribute of the successful investor. My commentary is a distillation of some of this effort relative to particular stocks and investment areas. My publishing at this point in time is limited to the blogsphere,... More
    Jul 31, 2011 7:37 PM | about stocks: AAPL, N, IDCC, GOOG, MSFT, QQQX

    It appears that debt ceiling deal is about be made and is being done in a relatively benign way relative to the stock market.  However this process has inevitably made bond holders nervous and aware that we are a stone's throw away from rising interest rates reducing the value of their bond holdings.

    Two new relatively safe havens  are emerging out of the debris -- multinational large cap stocks with relatively low P/E's and Technology stocks that are riding in the sweet spot of their business areas.  Here are four of four of my favorite long term recession resistant holdings that I am optmistic about:

    AAPL -- for all the usual right reasons including a very cheap P/E and PEG valuations plus an Apple HDTV that is coming closer to reality -- this article speculates March of 2012

    MSFT -- Cheap and stable by any standard especially now that they now have what appears to be a decent Windows 8 offering for early next year.  It is the first MSFT operating system that runs on ARM processors used in mobile, tablet and server applications. MSFT may take out remains of RIM as the Windows 8 phone will undoubtedly appeal to the enterprise community.

    NETSUITE (NYSE:N): Earnings were down in the latest earnings report last week as they are spending money in order to grow revenues --  23% revenue growth y-y in Q2.  They are gaining traction and are in the early part of what should be as strong growth trajectory  -- they have signed cloud software deals with Groupon and Qualcomm in the last month.  They make software to run businesses in the cloud eliminating or minimizing in house servers and an expensive IT function.  They are focused on small to medium size biz right now  – will be going head to head with as their momentum increases but there is plenty or room and incomplete overlap for both players.  Larry Ellison of Oracle participated in the startup of Netsuite and is on the board  - Ellison says this is a company he could not start internally because the competing internal divisions would be in the way of a success story.

    IDCC: A strong mobile and wireless patent generator that is now an acquisition target.  Due diligence has started and the rumors are flying.  Apple and  Google are expected to be the leading contendors in a bidding contest.  The recent Nortel patent purchases set the stage for a pretty good takeout price. Checkout the action on Stocktwits:

    Disclosure: I am long GOOG, AAPL, N, IDCC, MSFT, QQQ.
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