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* Strong supporter of mr. Warren Buffet's, mr. Benjamin Graham's and mr. Peter Lynch's approaches. * Used to be a generator of sustainable alpha before 2014, then went heavily against USD - that didn't work out well. ) Bio: Investor from CIS 2010-present: Asset Management at the most... More
  • Brazil 0 comments
    Feb 27, 2013 2:23 AM


    Brave new year lies ahead us, doesn't it? Start was powerful marketwise, but whilst fundamental economic accumulator is "born to die" I don't feel ok about 1H of 2013, however it is how things worked-out for the last 4 years.

    If S&P500 is still a good indicator of market direction (worldwide), than feels like we're being dragged to slaughterhouse.

    What do you think, might it happen in an old pattern manner (weak Spring and Summer, than kind of good news in the Autumn) or there are serious discrepancies that might lead to something new?
    I don't sense much of a change: there still US-govies, still US-dollar and safe-heaven stuff like precious metals and undervalued assets.

    Since Pension system in Kazakhstan is being reformed, local FI-market has gone to coma. I keep reversing big assets onto International markets, and significant macroeconomic risks is there coupled with better profits. Countries like Ozzy, Canada, Malasya, Brazil and China still hide some value, however not much at the moment.

    Brazil could be the Catch if the moment is ok:
    Unemployment went down from 7.5 to 4.9 over 3 years
    Huge infrastructure projects are being developed over the great country
    Retail sales YoY are very positive = 8%
    Low-base (low GDP growth in 2012 - 0.9%) effect for GDP to rise in 2013
    Public debt on it's way down (40% of GDP)
    And Word Cup in 2014 as well as Olympic Games in 2016
    Brazil bond/stocks are favorite thing on both sides: for 2013 and long-term (3-5 years).

    I will try to catch something interesting nominated in BRL (bonds, stocks, govies).
    Key issue for me is to be concerned with Braz-taxes.

    My special cheerless jokes:

    A gorilla walks into a bar and says, "A scotch on the rocks, please." The gorilla hands the bartender a $10 bill.
    The bartender thinks to himself, "This gorilla doesn't know the prices of drinks," and gives him 15 cents change.
    The bartender says, "You know, we don't get too many gorillas in here."
    The gorilla replies, "Well, at $9.85 a drink, I ain't coming back, either."

    A guy walks into a bar, orders 12 shots and starts drinking them as fast as he can.
    The bartender asks, "Dang, why are you drinking so fast?"
    The guy says, "You would be drinking fast, too, if you had what I had."
    The bartender asks, "What do you have?"
    The guy says, "75 cents."

    Disclosure: I am long INTC, FSLR, TSL, UA, GTAT, WWW.

    Additional disclosure: I have RUB, BRL, AUD nominated bonds

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